ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Idalia will be making landfall at D-Max, no question it will be a solid Cat 3 if not Cat 4 at landfall, just 12 hrs ago it was barely a Cat 1 with a pressure in the high 970s.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Looking at the longer loop, and in hindsight, this reminds me of Harvey suddenly organizing from a TD to eventually a cat 4. Hopefully it levels off.


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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Undeniable easterly jog last few frames on radar
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Abdullah wrote:A pinhole eye of 6 mi across gives it approximately the same eye size as Andrew 1992, Opal 1995, and Dennis 2004.
How fast did those systems deepen, in millibars per hour?
Dennis at one point deepened at 11mb in one hour.
I remember that...it was insane!
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Tallahassee is in trouble. Hope they evacuated. Looks pretty loaded even on the west side.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
So much for the shear forecast all the way to landfall a couple days ago.
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Michael
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
WiscoWx02 wrote:I'm thinking a high end category 2 at landfall or low end category 3. Regardless storm surge is still going to be insane due to the speed that Idalia is tracking and how big the winfield is.
It's already a high end category 2.
What do you see stopping the current RI over the next 12 hours?
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Hot tower throwing up coldest convection of the evening so far




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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
tolakram wrote:Looking at the longer loop, and in hindsight, this reminds me of Harvey suddenly organizing from a TD to eventually a cat 4. Hopefully it levels off.
https://i.imgur.com/AaVm7S3.gif
You can really see the ventilation to the north in that loop. The shear is starting to help Idalia more than hurt it.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
PavelGaborik10 wrote:WiscoWx02 wrote:I'm thinking a high end category 2 at landfall or low end category 3. Regardless storm surge is still going to be insane due to the speed that Idalia is tracking and how big the winfield is.
It's already a high end category 2.
What do you see stopping the current RI over the next 12 hours?
Nothing other than an EWRC...

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Tally might be a break if the East wobble continues.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Poonwalker wrote:Tallahassee is in trouble. Hope they evacuated. Looks pretty loaded even on the west side.
Few were taking it seriously until 11 am this morning when the hurricane warning was issued. That’s when the panic hit. Most people I know are staying. I evacuated to Crestview. I’m extremely worried about Tallahassee.
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Fran '96, Georges '98, Gordon '00, Gabrielle '01, Charley '04, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Barry '07, Fay '08, Debby '12, Matthew '16, Emily '17, Irma '17, Michael ‘18, Elsa ‘21, Fred ‘21, Mindy ‘21, Nicole ‘22, Idalia ‘23, Debby ‘24, Helene ‘24
Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
How often or rare is it for a category two or even a category three to develop a pinhole eye. I was under the assumption that those were almost the exclusive domain of cat four and fives.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Poonwalker wrote:Tallahassee is in trouble. Hope they evacuated. Looks pretty loaded even on the west side.
Yeah, i'm getting pretty worried about that possibility. I have very close friends in Crawfordville and I suggested they bug-out out of caution. They have a solid home, generator, etc but... all those trees?! Plus even if unlikely for their location, storm surge could play into things as well.
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Radar shows some pretty pronounced NE jogs last few frames.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Relatively weak STP now in Tampa Bay and south inland.
Expect this to quickly ramp up with the heavy band coming onshore
It’s been surprisingly mild here in Largo/Seminole. The rain is needed actually
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
chaser1 wrote:Poonwalker wrote:Tallahassee is in trouble. Hope they evacuated. Looks pretty loaded even on the west side.
Yeah, i'm getting pretty worried about that possibility. I have very close friends in Crawfordville and I suggested they bug-out out of caution. They have a solid home, generator, etc but... all those trees?! Plus even if unlikely for their location, storm surge could play into things as well.
Almost all of Wakulla County can go under water in surge. Not necessarily will in this one, but even a portion of Leon County is in a Zone E I believe.
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Fran '96, Georges '98, Gordon '00, Gabrielle '01, Charley '04, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Barry '07, Fay '08, Debby '12, Matthew '16, Emily '17, Irma '17, Michael ‘18, Elsa ‘21, Fred ‘21, Mindy ‘21, Nicole ‘22, Idalia ‘23, Debby ‘24, Helene ‘24
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Wobbles certainly, but the path is now projected to be NNE, so nothing surprising. At 8PM we were right on track.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion
fllawyer wrote:Radar shows some pretty pronounced NE jogs last few frames.
I'm not seeing any "east" at all right now. A little earlier, sure but it appears to be charging northward to these eyes
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Hurricane - Discussion

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