ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jdjaguar]

Tallahassee is in trouble. Hope they evacuated. Looks pretty loaded even on the west side.

Yeah, i'm getting pretty worried about that possibility. I have very close friends in Crawfordville and I suggested they bug-out out of caution. They have a solid home, generator, etc but... all those trees?! Plus even if unlikely for their location, storm surge could play into things as well.

SAME HERE!
i texted them several hours ago that she was bombing and that hunkering down may not be wise course

[SecondBreakfast]

My amateur opinion is high end Cat 3 with a photo finish to see if she gets to Cat 4 as she makes landfall.

Sending love and dry thoughts to everyone in the path from way up here in the big apple.

[pcolaman]

Radar shows some pretty pronounced NE jogs last few frames.

Still on projected path as per the NHC

[GCANE]

Looks like those eyewall towers are spinning faster.
Maybe stadium effect on IR

[emings]

I'm thinking a high end category 2 at landfall or low end category 3. Regardless storm surge is still going to be insane due to the speed that Idalia is tracking and how big the winfield is.

Not with water temps from the mid to high 80s in the Gulf minimum cat 3 probably higher

[Highteeld]

Wobbled back west a bit last frame. Likely heading just east of north right now. The eye being ragged makes tracking the exact direction a bit tricky since the "center" itself can look like it's changing

[FLpanhandle91]

I think she is about to bomb out to cat 4 fairly quickly. IR presentation is DRAMATICALLY improving.

[IsabelaWeather]

Tallahassee is in trouble. Hope they evacuated. Looks pretty loaded even on the west side.

Why would you evac in Tally? Usually you should evac if you face surge, you run from water and hide from the winds. People evacuating in places that arent going to surge hurts the people who really need to evac.

[Highteeld]

Looks like those eyewall towers are spinning faster.
Maybe stadium effect on IR

I would think that's a sign of lower pressure and higher winds literally "rotating" the storms quicker

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1696690506699337936

[hohnywx]

Tallahassee is in trouble. Hope they evacuated. Looks pretty loaded even on the west side.

Why would you evac in Tally? Usually you should evac if you face surge, you run from water and hide from the winds. People evacuating in places that arent going to surge hurts the people who really need to evac.

Leon County (where Tallahassee is located) has a mandatory evacuation for mobile and manufactured homes.

[GCANE]

Just lost Tropical Atlantic.
They are in Tampa.
Wonder if power went.
Anybody in Tampa?

[eastcoastFL]

Looks right on track

[Iceresistance]

959.3 mb Extrapolated on NOAA3

Source: CyclonixWX Recon

[NDG]

Very close to Cat 3.

RNT15 KWBC 300119
NOAA3 1210A IDALIA HDOB 28 20230830
010930 2712N 08409W 7508 02408 9891 +151 +185 182076 078 058 007 01
011000 2712N 08411W 7515 02389 9875 +155 +169 182080 081 058 012 01
011030 2712N 08413W 7513 02379 9861 +156 +171 186083 084 060 013 01
011100 2712N 08415W 7512 02369 9845 +157 +174 185085 086 064 009 01
011130 2712N 08418W 7515 02348 9828 +157 +175 184089 091 066 007 01
011200 2712N 08420W 7505 02337 9806 +155 +181 183095 098 069 010 01
011230 2712N 08422W 7501 02313 9772 +158 +257 187102 104 074 021 01
011300 2712N 08424W 7486 02297 9723 +168 +329 192102 110 075 032 01
011330 2712N 08426W 7503 02249 9685 +179 +341 195080 089 091 020 01
011400 2712N 08428W 7518 02211 9660 +184 +211 191067 076 090 017 01
011430 2712N 08430W 7514 02195 9628 +194 +184 187053 062 066 005 00
011500 2712N 08432W 7511 02188 9609 +200 +189 187032 045 051 004 00
011530 2712N 08434W 7509 02180 9597 +204 +180 182022 025 035 000 00
011600 2714N 08435W 7513 02177 9593 +210 +182 158025 026 /// /// 03
011630 2715N 08433W 7510 02191 9601 +210 +186 166027 028 /// /// 03
011700 2714N 08431W 7509 02192 9605 +206 +190 174038 045 038 003 00
011730 2713N 08429W 7504 02212 9635 +187 +191 193062 072 061 006 01
011800 2712N 08427W 7510 02234 9673 +179 +194 199080 084 078 010 01
011830 2712N 08425W 7512 02267 9710 +178 +192 200089 091 087 007 01
011900 2711N 08423W 7511 02297 9755 +166 +188 201099 100 088 006 01

[MetsIslesNoles]

Tallahassee is in trouble. Hope they evacuated. Looks pretty loaded even on the west side.

Why would you evac in Tally? Usually you should evac if you face surge, you run from water and hide from the winds. People evacuating in places that arent going to surge hurts the people who really need to evac.

There was a mandatory evacuation of all mobile and modular homes in Leon County. Hopefully people took it seriously. It’s going to be miserable here for quite a while with so many trees ready to damage the power grid.

[tolakram]

AF is next up.

[jdjaguar]

Looks like those eyewall towers are spinning faster.
Maybe stadium effect on IR

do not like hearing that GCANE...friends in Crawfordville with home in Panacea.
they are hunkered down.

worried.

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy is seeing something.
Off normal pattern

[ElectricStorm]

Winds are starting to catch up now. Could get to Cat 3 before the next advisory