ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ianswfl]

110kt flight level, 959mb. We got a cat3 now!

[chaser1]

There was a mandatory evacuation of all mobile and modular homes in Leon County. Hopefully people took it seriously. It’s going to be miserable here for quite a while with so many trees ready to damage the power grid.

Ok I finally have to ask. Multiple posters have expressed concerns about all the trees in Tallahassee. Do other parts of Florida not have trees? Are the trees in Tallahassee particularly vulnerable or something?

Reasonable question. Tons and tons of Pine trees, which will snap and go down in high wind. Not like live oaks that are well achored by their massive roots

[PTPatrick]

I would certainly evacuate anything that isn’t a well built home in tally, not to mention low lying areas. I flash flooded twice in tropical systems near the FSU campus in 4 years, and almost a 3rd time. Not sure it’s changed but poor drainage abounds in that town.

As far as folks staying in a well built structure in Crawfordville, that’s dicey too but can see why they might. It seems like worst surge will be east of st marks per NHC maps. A wobble west could change that so not a risk I’d take, but people will hedge their bets. Crawfordville is pretty far inland so if truly have a good building, supplies, generator, etc, I’d suppose there’s worse places to be. Note, not sure of what zones are mandatory evac there so follow your local orders and not armchair expert keyboard warriors like me

[Highteeld]

Northern eyewall looking much thicker on radar

[Sanibel]

It has been telegraphing pin hole eye all day...

Not good for those who don't want some of the stronger predictions verifying...

[jdjaguar]

There was a mandatory evacuation of all mobile and modular homes in Leon County. Hopefully people took it seriously. It’s going to be miserable here for quite a while with so many trees ready to damage the power grid.

Ok I finally have to ask. Multiple posters have expressed concerns about all the trees in Tallahassee. Do other parts of Florida not have trees? Are the trees in Tallahassee particularly vulnerable or something?

Most of Florida is Pine ...Tally has a lot of hardwood trees...oaks etc.
Pines bend, oak does not.

[Craters]

If there is a silver lining…I believe the area within the cone is sparsely populated swampy areas. I am I right?

Not urban but some areas look very similar to Mexico Beach. Depends on exactly where it comes ashore.

https://i.imgur.com/CmPya39.png

FWIW, I go up here to do some astrophotography from time to time... literally some of the darkest skies in the entire state as there's no light pollution. Make of that what you will.

I gotta say this, but one of the the best (/only good?) things about a city like Houston and its surroundings losing power during and after one of these storms is that the stars aren't afraid to come out anymore. There's at least something to be said for that.

[canebeard]

Miss Piggy is seeing something.
Off normal pattern

I think they decided to fly back through that wind maximum

,

That is what they signed up for. Heck, commercial jets encounter "winds" of 500 mph every day'; but not that kind of turbulence.
I hope no storm chasers are stupid enough to ago to St. Marks. Hubris can kill ya

[CronkPSU]

i will never forget the amount of damage all the fallen oak trees caused by Charley in Orlando and at my camp in Apopka, we were shut down for months because of it

[FLpanhandle91]

What's up with AF Recon's wind measurements?

[SconnieCane]

Miss Piggy is seeing something.
Off normal pattern

I think they decided to fly back through that wind maximum

,

That is what they signed up for. Heck, commercial jets encounter "winds" of 500 mph every day'; but not that kind of turbulence.
I hope no storm chasers are stupid enough to ago to St. Marks. Hubris can kill ya

St. Marks *should* be west of the landfall point and thus have offshore flow. But I wouldn't bet my life on it.

[Grumpy]

Most of Florida is Pine ...Tally has a lot of hardwood trees...oaks etc.
Pines bend, oak does not.

Oaks don't bend but will tip over with enough wind and ground saturation. My home town lost over a dozen 100 year old oaks during Charlie. The biggest root balls I have ever seen.

[PavelGaborik10]

110kt flight level, 959mb. We got a cat3 now!

I'd say 110 MPH, though category 3 is within the next 2-3 hours is incredibly likely.

[MetsIslesNoles]

There was a mandatory evacuation of all mobile and modular homes in Leon County. Hopefully people took it seriously. It’s going to be miserable here for quite a while with so many trees ready to damage the power grid.

Ok I finally have to ask. Multiple posters have expressed concerns about all the trees in Tallahassee. Do other parts of Florida not have trees? Are the trees in Tallahassee particularly vulnerable or something?

Most of Florida is Pine ...Tally has a lot of hardwood trees...oaks etc.
Pines bend, oak does not.

Pines here snap unfortunately. Saw it with Michael. You could see where the wind changed direction on I-10. The healthy live oaks held up well.

[jdjaguar]

Ok I finally have to ask. Multiple posters have expressed concerns about all the trees in Tallahassee. Do other parts of Florida not have trees? Are the trees in Tallahassee particularly vulnerable or something?

Most of Florida is Pine ...Tally has a lot of hardwood trees...oaks etc.
Pines bend, oak does not.

Pines here snap unfortunately. Saw it with Michael. You could see where the wind changed direction on I-10. The healthy live oaks held up well.

yes of course they do, but the oak trees do the most damage

[GCANE]

Hearing Tampa Bay emptied out

[tropicwatch]

Ok I finally have to ask. Multiple posters have expressed concerns about all the trees in Tallahassee. Do other parts of Florida not have trees? Are the trees in Tallahassee particularly vulnerable or something?

Most of Florida is Pine ...Tally has a lot of hardwood trees...oaks etc.
Pines bend, oak does not.

Pines here snap unfortunately. Saw it with Michael. You could see where the wind changed direction on I-10. The healthy live oaks held up well.

Didn't lose any oaks, but five pine trees came down. Four on my house.

[zzzh]

Dropsonde messages are not updating.

[GCANE]

Significant Tornado Potential (STP) just jumped up big time,
Fortunately it's still offshore

[Highteeld]

Eye is appearing more circular on radar



Satellite shows better symmetry as well