ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

[CronkPSU]

What is interesting is if you look at the loop posted above by CronkPSU...the lack of any lights in the big bend. That could be lack of population or just people left and didn't leave the lights on

it is lack of population/lights in general, that stretch of highways is about the darkest I have ever been on and even less populated closer to the ocean cause of the swamps .. here is a normal night time view from nasa

[PavelGaborik10]

Don't think she has enough time to make it to Cat.4, but it'll be close.

I thought the same 6 hours ago.

Now? Well it just needs 20 MPH more, seems 50/50.

[Owasso]

Looks like the NOAA plane is going right back into the eye

959.7mb extrap so far

[tolakram]

NOAA turned right around for another pass

[fwbbreeze]

Looking at the radar out of Tampa Bay the motion is still basically due north. A wobble here and there but for now staying pretty true.

[Highteeld]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/4459/TSocuT.gif

If you showed this to me randomly off the street a few days ago with no date attached, I would have immediately assumed it was Michael the night before landfall.

[HJB96x]

What is interesting is if you look at the loop posted above by CronkPSU...the lack of any lights in the big bend. That could be lack of population or just people left and didn't leave the lights on

The area is not populated, are you just realizing this??

[Iceresistance]

Oh lord

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2023 Time : 014020 UTC
Lat : 27:16:00 N Lon : 84:43:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 968.8mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -35.3C Cloud Region Temp : -66.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[jdjaguar]

What is interesting is if you look at the loop posted above by CronkPSU...the lack of any lights in the big bend. That could be lack of population or just people left and didn't leave the lights on

lack of population.

area is very low-lying. not conducive to the development you see elsewhere in FL

[tolakram]

saved loop

[NDG]

The size of Franklin's eyewall is about the whole size of Ida

[ScottNAtlanta]

What is interesting is if you look at the loop posted above by CronkPSU...the lack of any lights in the big bend. That could be lack of population or just people left and didn't leave the lights on

The area is not populated, are you just realizing this??

I know that...but it is completely dark. I didn't think it was that unpopulated

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm just going to post this due to how mind-numbing it is.

[IsabelaWeather]

Why would you evac in Tally? Usually you should evac if you face surge, you run from water and hide from the winds. People evacuating in places that arent going to surge hurts the people who really need to evac.

Cat 3/4 winds can take roofs off of homes especially old ones and trailers. Toppled trees and tornadoes are big risks too. Why stay in a house in harms way is the question. If I was there I would have already sent my kids and parents somewhere else.

I feel like you are expressing fearmongering... The people that truly should be evacuating are those on the Florida coast, not those inland in Tallahassee. Comments like this do a disservice to who really are in trouble. This is a dangerous storm, let's be real about the impacts...

100% agree, I spend a lot of time in the storm zone, I do insurance adjusting for these events.

Its more pronounced farther south, but you get gas stations to run out, you get hotels completely full of people who weren't even in a storm surge risk, so these families need to drive farther away and risk running out of gas to get to places.

If you are that concerned for your safety - and that is up to you - then you should leave well in advance of the storm, the people in the storm surge zone need to be able to get out, and get to a sturdy structure. Usually a tree falling on a house is not fatal, anyway - its really bad, but its not like 8 feet of wavy water is in your house.

I will say for Ian, I saw very few people who had significant roof issues who were not in the storm surge zone, most of the houses with the insane damage were on Pine Island, Sanibel, Matlacha, and just across the causeways to the main land. I don't remember seeing a single severely damaged roof that was 2 miles or more inland.

------------------------------

Idalia is looking to really ramp up, I am super glad it looks to be hitting an area with very few people. but for thoese people its going to be bad. I just couldnt imagine a storm like this hitting 50-70 miles more to the south so soon after Ian.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Is anyone else having problems with recon on google earth. It is not communicating at all anymore

[Owasso]

957.6 mb extrap

[hipshot]

Plane experiences St. Elmo's Fire during Hurricane Idalia

https://twitter.com/Physdashastro/status/1696705544524832895

I was in a P3 flight crew in the late 60's in the Navy, that would have been very friggin scary!!!!

[GCANE]

Cloud tops on the convection outside the eyewall is warming up rapidly

[ScottNAtlanta]

Cat 3/4 winds can take roofs off of homes especially old ones and trailers. Toppled trees and tornadoes are big risks too. Why stay in a house in harms way is the question. If I was there I would have already sent my kids and parents somewhere else.

I feel like you are expressing fearmongering... The people that truly should be evacuating are those on the Florida coast, not those inland in Tallahassee. Comments like this do a disservice to who really are in trouble. This is a dangerous storm, let's be real about the impacts...

100% agree, I spend a lot of time in the storm zone, I do insurance adjusting for these events.

Its more pronounced farther south, but you get gas stations to run out, you get hotels completely full of people who weren't even in a storm surge risk, so these families need to drive farther away and risk running out of gas to get to places.

If you are that concerned for your safety - and that is up to you - then you should leave well in advance of the storm, the people in the storm surge zone need to be able to get out, and get to a sturdy structure. Usually a tree falling on a house is not fatal, anyway - its really bad, but its not like 8 feet of wavy water is in your house.

I will say for Ian, I saw very few people who had significant roof issues who were not in the storm surge zone, most of the houses with the insane damage were on Pine Island, Sanibel, Matlacha, and just across the causeways to the main land. I don't remember seeing a single severely damaged roof that was 2 miles or more inland.

------------------------------

Idalia is looking to really ramp up, I am super glad it looks to be hitting an area with very few people. but for thoese people its going to be bad. I just couldnt imagine a storm like this hitting 50-70 miles more to the south so soon after Ian.

My parents spend the winter in Naples, and during Irma, my mother had a friend who also lived there that ended up just driving to their house in Chattanooga because they could not find anywhere in FL (or GA) to stay...so, yes...this is a real problem for people who need to leave and have no where to go. I went down to Bonita Springs last March and it was just awful...even then. The damage was unbelievable. The beaches couldn't even open