ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Helicity went thru the roof south of the CoC

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s18/effh/effh.gif?1693362657391

It was high for a short time then backed off

[Gatos del Sol]

I know that...but it is completely dark. I didn't think it was that unpopulated

There used to be more small motels and such when US 19 was a major route down from Georgia to central Florida. Then when I-75 went in, it was further to the east through Ocala/Gainesville, presumably because it was easier to go over the rolling limestone hills of Ocala than four lane a swamp route, and a lot of stuff just kind of got abandoned.

We took the US 19 route between Tallahassee and Tampa once and it was pretty creepy- just abandoned motels, trees, swamp, and a road without much shoulder for a lot of it and Perry was the only substantial town until you got to about Chiefland. It weirded us out enough that we’re stuck to I-75 since then even though that takes an extra 15-20 minutes to get to Tampa.

[SconnieCane]

Idalia Franklin and little TD11

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/taw/GEOCOLOR/20232411650-20232420050-GOES16-ABI-TAW-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif

What El Nino?

[hipshot]

What does that mean?

Not sure, maybe on set of an EWRC?
Need to see an eye drop from Miss Piggy

Haven't seen any signs of a wind maxima from Recon, but radar does show the possibility.

Would likely transpire quite quickly given how small the current eye is

Just heard on TWC that they were seeing signs of an EWRC.

[IsabelaWeather]

I feel like you are expressing fearmongering... The people that truly should be evacuating are those on the Florida coast, not those inland in Tallahassee. Comments like this do a disservice to who really are in trouble. This is a dangerous storm, let's be real about the impacts...

100% agree, I spend a lot of time in the storm zone, I do insurance adjusting for these events.

Its more pronounced farther south, but you get gas stations to run out, you get hotels completely full of people who weren't even in a storm surge risk, so these families need to drive farther away and risk running out of gas to get to places.

If you are that concerned for your safety - and that is up to you - then you should leave well in advance of the storm, the people in the storm surge zone need to be able to get out, and get to a sturdy structure. Usually a tree falling on a house is not fatal, anyway - its really bad, but its not like 8 feet of wavy water is in your house.

I will say for Ian, I saw very few people who had significant roof issues who were not in the storm surge zone, most of the houses with the insane damage were on Pine Island, Sanibel, Matlacha, and just across the causeways to the main land. I don't remember seeing a single severely damaged roof that was 2 miles or more inland.

------------------------------

Idalia is looking to really ramp up, I am super glad it looks to be hitting an area with very few people. but for thoese people its going to be bad. I just couldnt imagine a storm like this hitting 50-70 miles more to the south so soon after Ian.

DIsagree. Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, North Port had a lot of roof damage. here in Punta Gorda a lot of roofs trashed. Winds in Punta Gorda were mid range cat3 on the backside. Port Charlotte had a 115mph sustained on the weaker east side as well.

I think Boca Grande won when it comes to wind. HOWEVER those millionaire houses are built extremely well with good roofs. Older structures and tree damage was there though! Jock Williams was on the island and those winds were amazing. That's why you saw Placida get trashed. I live in Punta Gorda and the woods across my sub division which is less than 1.5 miles from the airport were trashed. Looked like the middle of Dec in Kentucky. No leaves hardly could see buildings you'd never knew that were there with the woods.

I was talking about near complete destruction, as posters were talking about why they need to evac from tally due to the roofs getting destroyed. There was a lot of roof damage all over that area, but the damage that would risk your life was mostly contained to the people who also had to deal with surge, which was my point with this storm that the ones that need to leave, should be able to without everyone a healthy distance also plugging up the roads, and gas stations, and hotels.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I know that...but it is completely dark. I didn't think it was that unpopulated

Pretty much all of the counties Wakulla, Franklin, jefferson, Taylor and Dixie issued a mandatory evacuation south of 98. Everyone is gone for the most part. Even though it is usually really dark here, driving at night sucks.

FWIW, last Fall when Fiona hit here and about 80% of the province was out of power I looked at satellite floaters/pics like that the night after and it still showed everything being lit up as normal despite the fact that almost nobody had power, so it seems like those night lights aren't actually "live" or something. Just something interesting I noticed.

It could have changed now, but even if after this makes landfall and wipes out the power there it seems like those images don't show the changes in the lights.

NASA Earth Observatory will sometime post night time pics after a big storm to show how many places lost power.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Any guesses what the NHC goes with on the 11pm advisory?

[dkommers]

I feel like you are expressing fearmongering... The people that truly should be evacuating are those on the Florida coast, not those inland in Tallahassee. Comments like this do a disservice to who really are in trouble. This is a dangerous storm, let's be real about the impacts...

100% agree, I spend a lot of time in the storm zone, I do insurance adjusting for these events.

Its more pronounced farther south, but you get gas stations to run out, you get hotels completely full of people who weren't even in a storm surge risk, so these families need to drive farther away and risk running out of gas to get to places.

If you are that concerned for your safety - and that is up to you - then you should leave well in advance of the storm, the people in the storm surge zone need to be able to get out, and get to a sturdy structure. Usually a tree falling on a house is not fatal, anyway - its really bad, but its not like 8 feet of wavy water is in your house.

I will say for Ian, I saw very few people who had significant roof issues who were not in the storm surge zone, most of the houses with the insane damage were on Pine Island, Sanibel, Matlacha, and just across the causeways to the main land. I don't remember seeing a single severely damaged roof that was 2 miles or more inland.

------------------------------

Idalia is looking to really ramp up, I am super glad it looks to be hitting an area with very few people. but for thoese people its going to be bad. I just couldnt imagine a storm like this hitting 50-70 miles more to the south so soon after Ian.

DIsagree. Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, North Port had a lot of roof damage. here in Punta Gorda a lot of roofs trashed. Winds in Punta Gorda were mid range cat3 on the backside. Port Charlotte had a 115mph sustained on the weaker east side as well.

I think Boca Grande won when it comes to wind. HOWEVER those millionaire houses are built extremely well with good roofs. Older structures and tree damage was there though! Jock Williams was on the island and those winds were amazing. That's why you saw Placida get trashed. I live in Punta Gorda and the woods across my sub division which is less than 1.5 miles from the airport were trashed. Looked like the middle of Dec in Kentucky. No leaves hardly could see buildings you'd never knew that were there with the woods.

I disagree also. I'm a public adjuster and have a lot of clients in that area. Newer construction fared pretty well. Still almost every house has roof leaks. Houses built in the 70s or 80s fared much worse.

It is true storm surge is the most destructive and deadly, but wind can be very destructive.

I make it a point to never judge others for the decisions they make to protect themselves and their families. Riding out a major hurricane is an experience most people shouldn't be wanting to have.

All those in the path please stay safe.

[GCANE]

Looks like towers are expanding away from the eye

[IcyTundra]

Any guesses what the NHC goes with on the 11pm advisory?

I think they pull the trigger and go with 115 mph making it a major.

[eastcoastFL]

-----
Date : 30 AUG 2023 Time : 014020 UTC
Lat : 27:16:00 N Lon : 84:43:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 968.8mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -35.3C Cloud Region Temp : -66.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[eastcoastFL]

She’s made quite the transformation over the past 24 and 48 hours




48 hour evolution of Idalia

[GCANE]

Looking more like an EWRC maybe in the works

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4vyDuHXUAA ... me=900x900

[Full8s]

There was a mandatory evacuation of all mobile and modular homes in Leon County. Hopefully people took it seriously. It’s going to be miserable here for quite a while with so many trees ready to damage the power grid.

Ok I finally have to ask. Multiple posters have expressed concerns about all the trees in Tallahassee. Do other parts of Florida not have trees? Are the trees in Tallahassee particularly vulnerable or something?

Reasonable question. Tons and tons of Pine trees, which will snap and go down in high wind. Not like live oaks that are well achored by their massive roots

Hate to be contrarian, but Florida pines sway like palm trees, it's the old growth in the panhandle that is more dangerous because they have no give/flexibility.

[Ianswfl]

100% agree, I spend a lot of time in the storm zone, I do insurance adjusting for these events.

Its more pronounced farther south, but you get gas stations to run out, you get hotels completely full of people who weren't even in a storm surge risk, so these families need to drive farther away and risk running out of gas to get to places.

If you are that concerned for your safety - and that is up to you - then you should leave well in advance of the storm, the people in the storm surge zone need to be able to get out, and get to a sturdy structure. Usually a tree falling on a house is not fatal, anyway - its really bad, but its not like 8 feet of wavy water is in your house.

I will say for Ian, I saw very few people who had significant roof issues who were not in the storm surge zone, most of the houses with the insane damage were on Pine Island, Sanibel, Matlacha, and just across the causeways to the main land. I don't remember seeing a single severely damaged roof that was 2 miles or more inland.

------------------------------

Idalia is looking to really ramp up, I am super glad it looks to be hitting an area with very few people. but for thoese people its going to be bad. I just couldnt imagine a storm like this hitting 50-70 miles more to the south so soon after Ian.

DIsagree. Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, North Port had a lot of roof damage. here in Punta Gorda a lot of roofs trashed. Winds in Punta Gorda were mid range cat3 on the backside. Port Charlotte had a 115mph sustained on the weaker east side as well.

I think Boca Grande won when it comes to wind. HOWEVER those millionaire houses are built extremely well with good roofs. Older structures and tree damage was there though! Jock Williams was on the island and those winds were amazing. That's why you saw Placida get trashed. I live in Punta Gorda and the woods across my sub division which is less than 1.5 miles from the airport were trashed. Looked like the middle of Dec in Kentucky. No leaves hardly could see buildings you'd never knew that were there with the woods.

I was talking about near complete destruction, as posters were talking about why they need to evac from tally due to the roofs getting destroyed. There was a lot of roof damage all over that area, but the damage that would risk your life was mostly contained to the people who also had to deal with surge, which was my point with this storm that the ones that need to leave, should be able to without everyone a healthy distance also plugging up the roads, and gas stations, and hotels.

Like trusses and such showing? We had a "few" of those in PUnta Gorda, but gotta remember most buildings in Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda were destroyed during Charley, and rebuilt stronger, or are newer. Most of the pre Andrew stuff in Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte got trashed. That's why Englewood and such I did see some homes that lost their second story as well. That area had cat1 winds in Charley so it was pre Charley.

If not for hurricane Charley the structure damage from Ian would have been much worse.

Did you see Reed Timmers videos from Pine Island. The weaker eastern eyewall was still strong around there. The very peak looked about 130mph at least. Stronger on the west side because trees were debarked but he only taped the first half of the storm and even then the highest looked 130 in the weak part.

sanibel Island 3 story buildings facing the Gulf some of them had complete destruction to their third floors. Trusses showing, wall failure. That wasn't surge, that was wind and that supports 140-150mph cat4 there and Sanibel didn't even have the strongest winds. Ft. Myers Beach winds looked about the same as Punta Gorda. Cat3.

Iona on the mainland a few miles away had 108mph sustained winds recorded. Sanibel island if the structure wasn't newer and you were on the third floor to escape the surge you might have had a tough time surviving the winds.

[eastcoastFL]

Radar presentation continues to improve and man she just hugs that line.

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... flanim.gif

[Keldeo1997]

No EWRC at the moment. Band still connected to the EW

[869MB]

Helicity went thru the roof south of the CoC

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s18/effh/effh.gif?1693362657391

It was high for a short time then backed off

Yeah, the highest Helicity Effective Values have shifted to the Northern and NE Quadrant of the storm.

[tolakram]

Radar presentation continues to improve and man she just hugs that line.

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... flanim.gif

Don't put image tags around a direct link please. Either copy it to a hosting site like IMGUR or just paste the link.

[Zonacane]

If Idalia had another day over the gulf that would no doubt be an ERC. There probably isn't enough time for one to start or choke off the eyewall