ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

The northern bands are going nuts on radar.
Huge area

[Hurricane Mike]

11:30pm Video Update on Idalia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McX8BTvxbn4

[Highteeld]

Northwest eyewall has completely filled in. Probably Cat 3 status right now

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1696727790673134003

[Ianswfl]

Northwest eyewall has completely filled in. Probably Cat 3 status right now

https://i.imgur.com/sDdA2sE.png

The CDO on IR also expanding. New ring of dark reds popping up too. Probably mid range cat3 right now.

[Highteeld]

Stadium effect in full-force

[NFLnut]

What is interesting is if you look at the loop posted above by CronkPSU...the lack of any lights in the big bend. That could be lack of population or just people left and didn't leave the lights on

The Big Bend is very sparsely populated. It's mostly wildlife refuge and a few fish camps.

[wx98]

So we are looking at a ballpark 8am landfall if I'm reading NHC advisory correctly, right?

More like 11am

Landfall will be a few hours before 11 am.

[CrazyC83]

We will know in about 2 hours how much stronger Idalia really is. I honestly think they might find something pushing category 4 when Recon gets back in.

[eastcoastFL]

Radar presentation continues to improve and man she just hugs that line.

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... flanim.gif

Don't put image tags around a direct link please. Either copy it to a hosting site like IMGUR or just paste the link.

I always thought that’s how you do it, it doesn’t show up for me any other way.

[MetroMike]

So we are looking at a ballpark 8am landfall if I'm reading NHC advisory correctly, right?

More like 11am

I heard 7am as it sped up.

[Fancy1002]

We will know in about 2 hours how much stronger Idalia really is. I honestly think they might find something pushing category 4 when Recon gets back in.

If that’s true, would category five be a possible peak?

[Steve]

80mph still expected just to the west of Savannah. Could be a big event for parts of GA and the low country of SC.

Here in Beaufort County expecting power outages some minor surge just because we haven't had an approach like this in quite some time. Elsa came through a bit more NE than ENE approach how this seems to swing by. Elsa also was getting sheared off from the north and was a minimum TS and yet it still produced power outages from down trees and a few Tornadoes EF0/1 in our County with only about 3-4 hours of on and off storms/bands. Last storm we had with significant impact was Matthew in 2016. I'm honestly more concerned for significant flooding and surge in parts of Charleston.

Keep us posted. Story of Idalia goes beyond landfall. Gonna be nasty in coastal SC and also Valdosta looks to to take a big punch. Lots of bands coming for central and north Florida. Some are lined up to dump tons if you get stuck under as many N/S bands are setting up to refeed over themselves per radar. Biggest deal for the west coast of FL is the backside which in this case as the center moves north of your latitude and the winds go to the SSW/SW, water’s coming in.

[MississippiWx]

Looking at current radar and satellite presentation…oof. Not good. Could be hitting a period of very rapid intensification.

[Highteeld]

Looking at current radar and satellite presentation…oof. Not good. Could be hitting a period of very rapid intensification.

ERI, as the Typhoon Center calls it...

Extreme
Rapid
Intensification

[CrazyC83]

Based on radar and satellite, my estimate right now would be 105 kt, with a pressure of 950 mb. But I don't see the NHC going high until Recon returns.

[Highteeld]

Based on radar and satellite, my estimate right now would be 105 kt, with a pressure of 950 mb. But I don't see the NHC going high until Recon returns.

105 sounds about right

[eastcoastFL]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2023 Time : 031020 UTC
Lat : 27:42:35 N Lon : 84:33:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 964.8mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.6 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -15.0C Cloud Region Temp : -67.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[FLpanhandle91]

Radar velocities just went through the roof. Multiple bins approaching 120mph.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like some surge is starting to come into Tampa Bay