ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Those storms to the north are still expanding. Anyone to the north and east of this storm is going to feel it.

[eastcoastFL]

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1200 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING WHEN IDALIA MOVES INLAND...
...12 AM POSITION UPDATE...

NOAA buoy 42036 recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79
km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) in the northern rainbands of
Idalia

[JaxGator]

80mph still expected just to the west of Savannah. Could be a big event for parts of GA and the low country of SC.

Here in Beaufort County expecting power outages some minor surge just because we haven't had an approach like this in quite some time. Elsa came through a bit more NE than ENE approach how this seems to swing by. Elsa also was getting sheared off from the north and was a minimum TS and yet it still produced power outages from down trees and a few Tornadoes EF0/1 in our County with only about 3-4 hours of on and off storms/bands. Last storm we had with significant impact was Matthew in 2016. I'm honestly more concerned for significant flooding and surge in parts of Charleston.

Keep us posted. Story of Idalia goes beyond landfall. Gonna be nasty in coastal SC and also Valdosta looks to to take a big punch. Lots of bands coming for central and north Florida. Some are lined up to dump tons if you get stuck under as many N/S bands are setting up to refeed over themselves per radar. Biggest deal for the west coast of FL is the backside which in this case as the center moves north of your latitude and the winds go to the SSW/SW, water’s coming in.

Yep, bracing for the whooping in Valdosta while my family in Jacksonville and Lake City will be getting in some action too. Praying for them and all in Idalia‘s path. Hopefully the brick and concrete building I’m in will help shelter-wise.

[FLLurker32]

Those storms to the north are still expanding. Anyone to the north and east of this storm is going to feel it.

We’re starting to see them push through in Marion county now.

[Steve]

Radar velocities just went through the roof. Multiple bins approaching 120mph.

Yeah. It’s cranking. That west side. Great forecast and decent recent model verification as we all became aware of mostly what was going to happen. Here goes…

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[tigerz3030]

80mph still expected just to the west of Savannah. Could be a big event for parts of GA and the low country of SC.

Here in Beaufort County expecting power outages some minor surge just because we haven't had an approach like this in quite some time. Elsa came through a bit more NE than ENE approach how this seems to swing by. Elsa also was getting sheared off from the north and was a minimum TS and yet it still produced power outages from down trees and a few Tornadoes EF0/1 in our County with only about 3-4 hours of on and off storms/bands. Last storm we had with significant impact was Matthew in 2016. I'm honestly more concerned for significant flooding and surge in parts of Charleston.

Keep us posted. Story of Idalia goes beyond landfall. Gonna be nasty in coastal SC and also Valdosta looks to to take a big punch. Lots of bands coming for central and north Florida. Some are lined up to dump tons if you get stuck under as many N/S bands are setting up to refeed over themselves per radar. Biggest deal for the west coast of FL is the backside which in this case as the center moves north of your latitude and the winds go to the SSW/SW, water’s coming in.

We live in Valdosta and we are very nervous about this storm.

[Highteeld]

Eye is coming in much warmer

[Steve]

Here in Beaufort County expecting power outages some minor surge just because we haven't had an approach like this in quite some time. Elsa came through a bit more NE than ENE approach how this seems to swing by. Elsa also was getting sheared off from the north and was a minimum TS and yet it still produced power outages from down trees and a few Tornadoes EF0/1 in our County with only about 3-4 hours of on and off storms/bands. Last storm we had with significant impact was Matthew in 2016. I'm honestly more concerned for significant flooding and surge in parts of Charleston.

Keep us posted. Story of Idalia goes beyond landfall. Gonna be nasty in coastal SC and also Valdosta looks to to take a big punch. Lots of bands coming for central and north Florida. Some are lined up to dump tons if you get stuck under as many N/S bands are setting up to refeed over themselves per radar. Biggest deal for the west coast of FL is the backside which in this case as the center moves north of your latitude and the winds go to the SSW/SW, water’s coming in.

We live in Valdosta and we are very nervous about this storm.

I would be too. Hang in there.

[Owasso]

Here we go, AF mission is up and should get a fix on the center in an hour and some

[Bocadude85]

Winds have been gusting over 60mph in Sarasota in the last hour.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KSRQ

[Craters]

I know that...but it is completely dark. I didn't think it was that unpopulated

Pretty much all of the counties Wakulla, Franklin, jefferson, Taylor and Dixie issued a mandatory evacuation south of 98. Everyone is gone for the most part. Even though it is usually really dark here, driving at night sucks.

FWIW, last Fall when Fiona hit here and about 80% of the province was out of power I looked at satellite floaters/pics like that the night after and it still showed everything being lit up as normal despite the fact that almost nobody had power, so it seems like those night lights aren't actually "live" or something. Just something interesting I noticed.

It could have changed now, but even if after this makes landfall and wipes out the power there it seems like those images don't show the changes in the lights.

Unless I'm mistaken, the weather satellite loops, etc., pretty much use a "static" background with the lights and stuff in the nighttime frames. The pictures like this one taken from the space station, though, are "what they see is what they photograph." That is, the lights, clouds, and everything else in the frame is real and was there when they took the picture.

Unless, of course, you're a Flat Earther. Then there are other problems that have to be dealt with.

[afswo]

So we are looking at a ballpark 8am landfall if I'm reading NHC advisory correctly, right?

More like 11am

I heard 7am as it sped up.

The 11 PM advisory plotted between 7 and 8 AM Eastern Time with 130 mph winds at landfall and a forward speed of 18 mph. This might be changed in later updates, but as you noted it sped up in the last full advisory. The 12 AM update "slowed" it to 17 mph.

[Owasso]

[Craters]

Riding the archive snake, track again shifted west, just a bit.

https://i.imgur.com/KXRJwyj.gif

A cobra of some ilk, I'm guessing.

[Craters]

Not looking good for us here at all in Wakulla. Our beautiful county and a couple counties east of us will not look the same tomorrow. Hope everyone stays safe!

I really hope that you come out of it okay, Sweetpea. Not being able to hightail it just isn't fair.

[FireRat]

https://i.postimg.cc/WzrpNrZy/77-E67405-C362-4-FC1-A772-B840376-C2-B2-B.png

That's a mean core, yikes. This could end up being like a Charley but for the big bend. Wow.

[redingtonbeach]

Alachua County Emergency Management
We want the public to know this is the strongest storm to approach us since the 1890s.

https://www.facebook.com/AlachuaCoEM

[Tekken_Guy]

I don’t think Idalia can reach Cat 5 thankfully. Ian was already a 120mph major at midnight on September 28th and Michael was at Cat 4 status by Midnight on October 10th, and Idalia is closer to landfall than either Ian or Michael were at midnight on the day they hit.

Michael made landfall around 1pm central (2pm eastern), and Ian around noon eastern. Idalia’s aiming for a 7-8am landfall.

[Craters]

Said to myself earlier I was going to bed when I finished my cigar.
I am going to light up another one

Hope you have a mostly full pack/box, GCANE.

You, of all people, know, of course, that the odds against anybody on Storm2k being able to sleep is approximated by S = k(dIH/dt)(d/re)^x, where k is a normalizing function, IH is the intensity of the hurricane, t is time, d is the distance from the landfall site, re is the radius of the eyewall, and x is a person-specific constant >1. Statistical observations indicate that, in your particular case, x >>1.

Therefore, I suggest that you stop resisting, verify that your lighter is filled, and open a new bottle of Jack.

Oh yeah -- and get the coffeemaker set up for the morning so you don't have to think much to get it going. (The rhyming sentence is free, by the way.)

*Edited for notational consistency.*

[Sciencerocks]