2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LAF92]

huge weakness in atlantic will easily scoop this up and out.....

There are quite a few ensemble members that show building high pressure behind this system with a weakening trough over the western North Atlantic, some members have a distinct bend back to the west showing this:
https://i.imgur.com/8oHdN2Z.png

With the usual caveats this is a long range forecast (240 hours), but the EPS doesnt show a strong signal for a trough:
https://i.imgur.com/TpWj1d3.png

Yep. I was just about to comment something similar.

0z GFS is now on board with the wave coming off of Africa and the 0z CMC has it again on this run

[cane5]

This will be the second year in a row all we heard was Tampa Tampa Tampa and the models were off by over 100 miles. The weather channel just needs to slow down the hype until the storm is 24 hours before landfall.

Does not mean we don’t need a cone of concern because it generally is mildly accurate 3 days out but it’s almost getting silly and a waste of millions to relocate people 3 days in advance.

Models never showed a Tampa landfall for Idalia. There was some concern that the track could shift further south but that never panned out.

On Monday Tampa had the highest numbers for storm surge at 7ft a 2/1 ratio over anyone else. Safe to say models were calling for a Tampa landfall.

[IcyTundra]

:double:

This will be the second year in a row all we heard was Tampa Tampa Tampa and the models were off by over 100 miles. The weather channel just needs to slow down the hype until the storm is 24 hours before landfall.

Does not mean we don’t need a cone of concern because it generally is mildly accurate 3 days out but it’s almost getting silly and a waste of millions to relocate people 3 days in advance.

Models never showed a Tampa landfall for Idalia. There was some concern that the track could shift further south but that never panned out.

On Monday Tampa had the highest numbers for storm surge at 7ft a 2/1 ratio over anyone else. Safe to say models were calling for a Tampa landfall.

A lot of models were calling for a Cedar Key landfall or perhaps just south of Cedar Key which would have put a big surge into Tampa Bay. Fortunately for the Tampa area models began shifting westward on Monday. I also think there was a lot of concern for Tampa based on past hurricanes. Ian and Charley both deviated south of the models and it was perfectly reasonable to think that the same might happen with Idalia.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z UKMET has a new TS forming in the far SE MDR at hour 78. This is for the AEW following the current E MDR orange. What's notable about it is that it is quite aggressive considering how conservative it usually is. It has it down to 999 mb at 168 hours at 12.9N, 40.7W, moving steadily WNW. That means it could threaten the LAs in 10 days. What should be concerning to the LAs is that the Euro has something similar along with notable members on the last several EPS runs. In addition, the GFS, CMC, and ICON have it though it looks to recurve on those:


0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 9.7N 15.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2023 84 10.3N 17.7W 1007 46
0000UTC 03.09.2023 96 10.9N 19.0W 1007 34
1200UTC 03.09.2023 108 12.1N 22.9W 1008 30
0000UTC 04.09.2023 120 11.6N 26.7W 1008 28
1200UTC 04.09.2023 132 11.7N 30.9W 1007 35
0000UTC 05.09.2023 144 11.7N 34.9W 1004 36
1200UTC 05.09.2023 156 12.2N 38.1W 1001 38
0000UTC 06.09.2023 168 12.9N 40.7W 999 46

[cane5]

:double:

Models never showed a Tampa landfall for Idalia. There was some concern that the track could shift further south but that never panned out.

On Monday Tampa had the highest numbers for storm surge at 7ft a 2/1 ratio over anyone else. Safe to say models were calling for a Tampa landfall.

A lot of models were calling for a Cedar Key landfall or perhaps just south of Cedar Key which would have put a big surge into Tampa Bay. Fortunately for the Tampa area models began shifting westward on Monday. I also think there was a lot of concern for Tampa based on past hurricanes. Ian and Charley both deviated south of the models and it was perfectly reasonable to think that the same might happen with Idalia.

Yes it was basically the big bend or Tampa. Last year the Icon nailed it with a direct hit to Fort Myers when no other model saw that so it’s basically a game of chance.
Where my frustration lies is when the Weather channel which I watch as a leading source should not be so conclusive and stay away from the predicting game..yes it’s good for ratings so they can latch on to making a decision but they are doing a disservice to the system. With so many models there is just no way to pinpoint where storms will make landfall until 24 hours.

That does not preclude people from making choices but mandatory evacuations end up being a political football and that’s sports but we can do better. Technology has not helped enough to to make it a fulproof system. In the end people must stay informed and with all the social media you would think we are better informed. That’s why there are message boards like this thank god.

[kevin]

I'm not liking that potential MDR storm in the Euro ensemble.

[weeniepatrol]

I'm not liking that potential MDR storm in the Euro ensemble.

https://i.imgur.com/WHD7hrH.png

Season is becoming uncomfortable

[jlauderdal]

I'm not liking that potential MDR storm in the Euro ensemble.

https://i.imgur.com/WHD7hrH.png

Season is becoming uncomfortable

It's just getting going in Florida; October is the most active month for the sunshine state.

[SFLcane]

I'm not liking that potential MDR storm in the Euro ensemble.

https://i.imgur.com/WHD7hrH.png

Unlikely it will reach the conus based on the heavy recurve pattern but that’s very far out so we’ll see.

[mantis83]

I'm not liking that potential MDR storm in the Euro ensemble.

https://i.imgur.com/WHD7hrH.png

Unlikely it will reach the conus based on the heavy recurve pattern but that’s very far out so we’ll see.

agreed......recurve city!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm not liking that potential MDR storm in the Euro ensemble.

https://i.imgur.com/WHD7hrH.png

Unlikely it will reach the conus based on the heavy recurve pattern but that’s very far out so we’ll see.

agreed......recurve city!

Is it?

[captainbarbossa19]

Unlikely it will reach the conus based on the heavy recurve pattern but that’s very far out so we’ll see.

agreed......recurve city!

Is it?

https://i.imgur.com/CgB24dZ.png

This season is giving me 2004 vibes.

[zzzh]

The wave models are hinting at will exit Africa in about 72h, at a very low latitude (below 10N).

[chris_fit]

06z GFS Ens more interesting in Idalia round 2 than a possible MDR runner.

[mantis83]

Unlikely it will reach the conus based on the heavy recurve pattern but that’s very far out so we’ll see.

agreed......recurve city!

Is it?

https://i.imgur.com/CgB24dZ.png

there's a weakness between the ridge out west and the central atlantic ridge where it should escape through

[Hypercane_Kyle]

agreed......recurve city!

Is it?

https://i.imgur.com/CgB24dZ.png

there's a weakness between the ridge out west and the central atlantic ridge where it should escape through

Maybe, hard to say that far out. Doesn't strike me as "recurve city" if the tropical cyclone exiting the US East Coast (Idalia) gets caught and forced southwest when it should be going NE in a hurry.

[Hurricane Mike]

Way too early to tell if it would turn or not.

[Stratton23]

mantis83 way too soon to say that potential MDR storm is a fish one, lots can change in the upper level steering pattern quickly

[Iceresistance]

Still there on 6z EPS, the area of concern from pervious posts mentions is in the blue circle.


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgjaD.png

[chaser1]

I'm convinced. Someone has neutered the GFS LOL.
EURO, GEM, and ICON all showing a disturbance near 35W at about 138 hours. I'm hardly seeing GFS ensemble evidence of this feature.