Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

Now that the two main models GFS and ECMWF develop this wave,it's time to have a thread for it so all the model runs can be posted here.



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1697292158758433234




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1697293615964500073

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could develop over the eastern tropical
Atlantic early next week in association with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system through the middle part of next week while it moves
westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central portions
of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Meteorcane]

Looks like a pretty good setup for development (as Eric Webb detailed, better than I ever could), and this does have the potential to be a long track ACE generator. Best case scenario is it develops early like the CMC/ICON/EC deterministic solutions indicate as that should favor a relatively quick recurve. A slower development would likely keep it at a lower latitude, and make it more of a potential Carib threat late next week. Personally I think, given the favorable factors the, the deterministic GFS is a bit too bearish, but since the wave hasn't even emerged off Africa yet, I wouldn't take any scenarios off the table.

[AutoPenalti]

not sure which wave it is on the GFS but I'm assuming it's the larger one west of Cabo Verde on day 7, the wave east of it (1010mb) develops much later and goes towards the Eastern Caribbean

[SFLcane]

[Iceresistance]

https://i.postimg.cc/4ys5LCQP/tc.png

It has 2 clusters, the one impacting the Northern Caribbean islands, and those moving away from any landfall potential.

[SFLcane]

[galaxy401]

Going to move into the Atlantic during peak season. Could see this being a long tracker.

[Stratton23]

the 12z GFS says not so fast on a recurve, again lets wait until something actually develops before claiming its a fish storm and wont effect land, that is just not a good mindset to have, their are still islands that could be hit even if this system doesnt affect the US, so people can still be effected

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.postimg.cc/fygkpmhL/kkk.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/brMN3PQS/llll.png

Trough over Bermuda. What could go wrong.
Will be an interesting couple of days in this thread.

[underthwx]

Makes me wonder how much rainfall the Western region of Africa receives during the summer with these waves...

[Category5Kaiju]

One thing I will say about the potential path of this future system is that considering Idalia is not safely recurving on out to sea but rather looking like it wants to boomerang back and threaten New England, that might indicate some decent ridging in place, which could possibly have downstream effects on this upcoming system

[Stratton23]

Cycloneye could you remove my post on the other thread? It wont allow me to remove it

[zzzh]

12z euro has Gert survives interaction with Franklin and Jose, and dragging this wave to the north

[mantis83]

upper low near bermuda should keep it away from a U.S. landfall, at this point.....

[Stratton23]

mantis83 not so fast their, the euro 12z had the upper level low backing away to the south and ridging following the system to its north, end of its run their is a bit more ridging and not really a big trough to come turn it out to sea

[AutoPenalti]

upper low near bermuda should keep it away from a U.S. landfall, at this point.....

No. It moves away.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS is in the Caribbean at day 10 while the Euro seems to be safely recurving west of Bermuda. May have to watch next week to see what may happen as this starts to go into the Atlantic

[Stratton23]

Idalia will have a massive effect on the upper level steering pattern, if it stalls and hangs around longer off of new england, that will allow for this next system to safely recurve out to sea, however if idalia exits the picture faster, that will give more time for upper level ridging to build back in and potentially force this system towards the US

[ScottNAtlanta]

the 12z GFS says not so fast on a recurve, again lets wait until something actually develops before claiming its a fish storm and wont effect land, that is just not a good mindset to have, their are still islands that could be hit even if this system doesnt affect the US, so people can still be effected

GFS has a bias for recurves, so if it isn't recurving...it will, only to correct back west