WPAC: SAOLA - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

HKO conducted a recon mission a few hours ago but did not penetrate the eyewall.

[cycloneye]

09W SAOLA 230831 1200 21.4N 117.3E WPAC 130 926

[mrbagyo]

Sentinel-2 satellite made a bullseye pass over Typhoon Saola earlier this morning.



 https://twitter.com/Pierre_Markuse/status/1697246431118336493

[Iceresistance]

Sentinel-2 satellite made a bullseye pass over Typhoon Saola earlier this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/Oq71eG3.jpg

https://twitter.com/Pierre_Markuse/status/1697246431118336493?t=ZZmQaPF0QsCAHFnoPJwdng&s=19

Literally an evil eye staring back at you!

[underthwx]

I read this on Rueters...."Since late July, China's north and northeast have been struck by widespread flooding triggered by record rainfall in the wake of Doksuri."

Hebei, part of the Haihe River basin, northern China’s largest, was lashed by more than a year's rainfall last week, forcing the evacuation of more than 1.6 million people.".....1.6 million people. Where do they go?....And Haiku will be the 2nd cyclone to affect China, in as many weeks....

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

120 knts

[Ntxw]

Saola is a beast. Hope the Pearl River Delta region is ready.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/zoom_earth/status/1697363777727922399

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 21.6N 116.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 151 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 46 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 09W HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC)
WITH AN ASSOCIATED 15 KNOT DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICT A 20 NM ROUND EYE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL BANDING,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. OVERALL,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
APPROACHES HONG KONG WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND AN ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND NOW RANGE FROM 6.0 TO 6.5 (115
TO 127 KNOTS) SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. THE CIMSS M-PERC PRODUCT INDICATES ANOTHER ERC IS
IMMINENT WITH THE FULL MODEL DATA INDICATING A 75 PERCENT PROBABILITY
AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A MOAT FEATURE AND DEVELOPING
OUTER EYEWALL.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 311730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24,
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
WESTERN STR, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TY 09W WILL WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS IT SKIRTS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF CHINA. A POSSIBLE ERC MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES HONG KONG.
AFTER TAU 72, TY 09W WILL TURN SHARPLY EASTWARD AS THE STEERING
INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO A LOW-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS SOUTHWESTERLIES.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A 50 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
36. AFTER TAU 36, GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE EASTWARD TURN. DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 120. THE 310600Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE ALSO
INDICATES SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE EASTWARD
TURN, POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE GULF OF TONKIN. THE 311200Z GFS
ENSEMBLE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS TURNING THE SYSTEM EAST OF
HAINAN ISLAND. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 120 LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1697369198287085990

[Hayabusa]

Saola looks to be the greatest threat since Mangkhut if it directly strikes Hong Kong

[Hurricane2022]

What a hell is this?

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1697378985787728060

[cycloneye]

Chaser James Reynolds is in Hong Kong.

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1697382797676327261

[doomhaMwx]

1-minute interval rapid scan images from China's FY-4B satellite positioned at 133E.



Close up and longer loop.

[doomhaMwx]

HKO conducted another recon mission this morning and appears to have sampled the eye or eyewall this time.

[StormTracker89]

It'd be great if they would share their findings.

[StormTracker89]

JTWC too high on last two analyses based on coincident SAR passes from 2155z. RS2 showed 124kt while RCM3 showed 128kt. EWRC is ongoing and having an effect even if the Dvorak estimates have held steady. Interesting that agency fix Data-T numbers are all around T6.0 as well.

Well SAR isn't the most accurate estimate for TC intensity.

Are you saying that a subjective technique based on cloud temperatures and patterns is better than data collected by an active radar sensor? I fail to see how.

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 21.8N 116.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 121 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 46 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AS REVEALED IN ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY, TYPHOON (TY) 09W HAS
COMMENCED ANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WITH A SMALL
INNER EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY A MOAT AND DEVELOPING OUTER EYEWALL.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 17 NM
ROUND EYE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL BANDING, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES HONG
KONG WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
INTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS
IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 6.0 TO 6.5, A 010000Z AIDT ESTIMATE OF 121 KNOTS, AND AN
RCM-3 SAR VMAX OF 116 KNOTS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED
ON THE RCM-3 SAR PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 127 KTS AT 312330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24.
AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A BROAD WESTERN STR, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TY 09W WILL WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS IT SKIRTS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF CHINA. THE ONGOING ERC WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES HONG KONG.
AFTER TAU 72, TY 09W WILL TURN SHARPLY EASTWARD AS THE STEERING
INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO A LOW-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS SOUTHWESTERLIES.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN
(UEMN), WHICH LOOPS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A 45 NM
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, GUIDANCE
DIVERGES WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF
THE EASTWARD TURN. DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS
MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 120.
THE 311200Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE ALSO INDICATES SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING OF THE EASTWARD TURN, POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE GULF OF
TONKIN. THE 311800Z GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS
TURNING THE SYSTEM OVER OR TO THE EAST OF HAINAN ISLAND. RELIABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120 LENDING MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN