Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 95L)

[SFLcane]

Last 2 runs of the gfs…

[N2FSU]

6z GFS



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[MarioProtVI]

This looks like the first system to have model consensus to be a strong MDR hurricane since Sam

[N2FSU]

0z Euro



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[invest man]

6z GFShttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230901/1e66fbbae35df62ee5646dfc8e3642ae.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230901/a47203ae45a31104a13e35299c6eb8ca.jpg
Notice the difference in Euro and GFS. GFS clears out the N Atl. systems by the 9th. Euro has not completely done that. That may be something to keep an eye on in time. Otherwise GFS reminds me a little of Floyd 96 and Irene 11.

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[AutoPenalti]

Hr 192-onwards where it just veers away from Florida is classic GFS

[chris_fit]

GFS Trend speaks for itself...

[SFLcane]

GFS Trend speaks for itself...

https://i.imgur.com/NNlXoBk.gif

[cycloneye]

Cone more to the west.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
this weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development of this system during the early and middle
parts of next week, and a tropical depression could form while it
moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[tolakram]

Who said somewhere this season reminds then of 2004? Slow recurve scraping the east coast. Could easily make landfall somewhere, most likely to recurve based on just the odds. As long as the models aren't completely wrong this could be another good ACE maker.

[SFLcane]

It’s a long ways out but one things for sure recent trends are concerning! El Niño who?

[cycloneye]

Here it is.

[Teban54]

Who would have thought that the G-named storm would be impacting the future of the (probably) L-named storm...

An even more bizarre way to phrase this: Who would have though that AL06 would be impacting the future of potential AL13...

[SFLcane]

Could be a big one unfortunately everything looks like a go.

[SFLcane]

Here it is.

https://i.imgur.com/Bc1AwOd.gif

Low latitude!

[aspen]

Here it is.

https://i.imgur.com/Bc1AwOd.gif

Hopefully this means we’ll get an invest tag soon.

[abajan]

Could be a big one unfortunately everything looks like a go.

I don't mind if it's a big one. Could be Cat5 for all I care (that would be fun to track, actually), so long as it stays out to sea!

[SFLcane]

06z EPS very bullish one thing indeed that has my attention is this time around the strong members are actually to the south could be due to a strengthing ridge overhead as Idalia departs. This one has trouble all over it but well see.

[GCANE]

GFS run-to-run of the sub-tropical ridge looks concerning for CONUS east coast.
A long way to go though.

[AutoPenalti]

Will be interesting to see how strong the ridge is by Labor Day before crossing the Hebert Box