2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Category5Kaiju]

Another thing I will remember even after this season is done is to really be careful of the GFS, especially whenever it is the only model that doesn't develop a particular system. Literally a week ago, the GFS's runs had very little, if any, signs of Idalia. We saw how the GFS desperately played catch up after that. I think part of it is because the GFS has an EPAC bias and Atlantic dry air bias. Something to be mindful of for future years.

[Woofde]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1697327407231889765

That's a hot take, but it does have reasoning behind it. The Atlantic is warming the fastest of all basins. Warm water creates more rising air. It cannot be understated just how much warmer this year is than average. Last year was the same, and so on. Unless this trend changes its easy to see how the Atlantic becomes more dominant.

[zzzh]

Tropical Indian Ocean/MC is the one that warms the fastest. Tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic barely warmed if look at long term trend.

[zzzh]

New Cansips shows a belt of upper easterlies and much weaker trades across the MDR. September will very likely be above average.

[IsabelaWeather]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1697327407231889765

That's a hot take, but it does have reasoning behind it. The Atlantic is warming the fastest of all basins. Warm water creates more rising air. It cannot be understated just how much warmer this year is than average. Last year was the same, and so on. Unless this trend changes its easy to see how the Atlantic becomes more dominant.

I would assume that is because the ATL doesnt have a really cold current like the EPAC? EPAC basically gets water fron the Bering Sea and i Think the Arctic Ocean

[weeniepatrol]

Atlantic ACE has crossed 50 (currently 51.2 per CSU) and is now up to 140% of average for the date.

[weeniepatrol]

Welcome to September, gang! Should be fairly quiet with a strong El Nin-



never mind

[hurricanes1234]

And the plot continues to thicken! With Gert having regenerated at 5 AM, we now have four named systems in close proximity (even though Idalia is technically post-tropical).

[Hammy]

And the plot continues to thicken! With Gert having regenerated at 5 AM, we now have four named systems in close proximity (even though Idalia is technically post-tropical).

https://i.imgur.com/7c8l9In.png

And to top it off, we get a sample of each symbol used on NHC's maps.

This could almost be like a hurricane season flag of sorts

[Category5Kaiju]

We are likely going to have Katia and Lee at some point within the next week or so, which will bring us to 13 nameable storms total.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I believe no other recorded Atlantic hurricane season that coincided with an El Nino of at least moderate strength was that active, especially by the beginning of September.

[Woofde]

A little interesting observation about the TC outbreak we just had, is how the cold wakes are barely even showing up. Usually you would expect a trail of significantly anomalous cold SSTs where a major hurricane has tracked. It's very telling that the wakes only lowered SSTs to average / barely below average.

[Teban54]

And the plot continues to thicken! With Gert having regenerated at 5 AM, we now have four named systems in close proximity (even though Idalia is technically post-tropical).

https://i.imgur.com/7c8l9In.png

5 systems now.

[NDG]

Tropical Indian Ocean/MC is the one that warms the fastest. Tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic barely warmed if look at long term trend.

The Indian Ocean gets dominated by easterly shear underneath the monsoonal westerly winds most of the time, that's why their summers are most times tropical cyclone free.

[LarryWx]

We are likely going to have Katia and Lee at some point within the next week or so, which will bring us to 13 nameable storms total.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I believe no other recorded Atlantic hurricane season that coincided with an El Nino of at least moderate strength was that active, especially by the beginning of September.

Without having time to check now to make sure, that would be my educated guess.

[zzzh]

Tropical Indian Ocean/MC is the one that warms the fastest. Tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic barely warmed if look at long term trend.

The Indian Ocean gets dominated by easterly shear underneath the monsoonal westerly winds most of the time, that's why their summers are most times tropical cyclone free.

I was talking about long term trend/global warming, don't know what's your point here?

[LarryWx]

We are likely going to have Katia and Lee at some point within the next week or so, which will bring us to 13 nameable storms total.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I believe no other recorded Atlantic hurricane season that coincided with an El Nino of at least moderate strength was that active, especially by the beginning of September.

Of those moderate+ Niños on record, none have had more than 2 MH by the way.

[weeniepatrol]

We are likely going to have Katia and Lee at some point within the next week or so, which will bring us to 13 nameable storms total.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I believe no other recorded Atlantic hurricane season that coincided with an El Nino of at least moderate strength was that active, especially by the beginning of September.

Of those moderate+ Niños on record, none have had more than 2 MH by the way.

It's incredible that we have tied the 2 MH count before September!

[hurricanes1234]

Ah yes, Tropical Storm Franklinose.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ah yes, Tropical Storm Franklinose.

https://i.imgur.com/Y7bZ0px.png

Due to the sheer stupidity of the name, the name "Franklinose" was retired from the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season and will never be used again for another Atlantic hurricane.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Don't just look at anomalies. I hear a lot of talk about how crazy warm the water is of equatorial S America. Five degree anomalies are only 22 C/23 C. If you look at the current SST map above, you see there is a ton more warmth in the Atlantic so it would be hard to maintain upward motion in the EPAC for very long at this point in the season