ATL: KATIA - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

Up to 100/100. We will almost certainly have TD12 or TS Katia at 11.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Recent microwave satellite images indicate the circulation of a low
pressure system located west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has
become better defined since yesterday. In addition, the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization. Based on these trends, advisories are likely to be
initiated on a tropical depression or tropical storm later this
morning. The system is moving northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

[cycloneye]

Looks very good.

[Extratropical94]

AL, 94, 2023090112, , BEST, 0, 191N, 282W, 30, 1007, DB

AL, 94, 202309011200, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1900N, 2810W, , 3, 35, 2, 1005, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, NR, V, 5, 2525

01/1200 UTC 19.4N 27.7W T2.5/2.5 94L

30 kts BT, but both SAB and TAFB came in at T2.5. This might go straight to Katia at 11

[cycloneye]

TD.

AL, 94, 2023090112, , BEST, 0, 191N, 282W, 30, 1007, TD

[Sciencerocks]

[WalterWhite]

AL, 12, 2023090106, , BEST, 0, 184N, 280W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 240, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,
AL, 12, 2023090112, , BEST, 0, 191N, 282W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWELVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024, TRANSITIONED, alB42023 to al122023,

This system seems to have weakened by 1 millibar going from Invest 94L to Tropical Depression 12L.

[Sciencerocks]

The irony is ascat yesterday clearly supported tropical storm and it clearly looked better. lol

[Sciencerocks]

[WalterWhite]

Tropical Depression 12L is refusing to intensify at all. Its pressure and maximum 1-minute sustained wind speed have not changed at all since the 12Z update.

AL, 12, 2023090118, , BEST, 0, 203N, 285W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWELVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,

[Zonacane]

Tropical Depression 12L is refusing to intensify at all. Its pressure and maximum 1-minute sustained wind speed have not changed at all since the 12Z update.

AL, 12, 2023090118, , BEST, 0, 203N, 285W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWELVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,

Its just happy to be here

[Sciencerocks]

[zhukm29]

Hey ASCAT, this is no longer funny

And even I thought it couldn't get worse than that one pass where it perfectly missed pre-Emily, Franklin, and Gert.

[zhukm29]

[zhukm29]

Significant glow up tonight for TD12.

[Sciencerocks]

If this doesn't have any tropical storm force winds then I am a monkeys uncle and I will start swinging from the trees.

[zhukm29]

Latest TAFB fix at 6Z just came in at T3.0. Even when blended with the SAB 6Z value at T2.0, that yields a TS. Interested to see what the NHC does in the next advisory.

[Extratropical94]

Latest TAFB fix at 6Z just came in at T3.0. Even when blended with the SAB 6Z value at T2.0, that yields a TS. Interested to see what the NHC does in the next advisory.

We'll see Katia in an hour and a half

AL, 12, 2023090206, , BEST, 0, 222N, 291W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 10, 1012, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KATIA

[cycloneye]

Will be a storm for only 24 hours or even less.

Katia is expected to be a short-lived storm as deep-layer
southerly shear should increase soon while Katia moves into an
inhibiting, dry and stable surrounding environment.

[cycloneye]

More stronger in this cyclone update of 8:40 AM.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds of
Katia have increased to 50 mph (85 km/h). A new intensity forecast
to reflect the current intensity will be issued by 2 PM CVT
(1500 UTC).