Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 95L)

[MetroMike]

18z EPS Look to be more South and West at 144hrs

Ok back on track here.
Can you post the 18z EPS at 144? can't seem to get it.

[crownweather]

18Z EPS at 144 hours


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[IcyTundra]

00Z GFS is a lot faster nearly 5 degrees further west at 6 days than the 18Z GFS.

[Meteorcane]

Unfortunately going to hit the Lesser Antilles with this run (which is much faster than the 18Z). Puerto Rico looks in danger as well.

[Into The Fog]

Yes… 140% of average ace for this time of year, 2 simultaneous majors, and a count of 11/3/2 by 8/31. Very nino-esque

He was talking about the general track of the storms so far, not the quality of these storms.

While there seems to be a correlation between El Niño and a weaker Bermuda high in general, the Atlantic and the activity observed in it this year have not behaved at all like a standard El Niño. In fact, none of the Atlantic seasons after 2017 have really exhibited this correlation. The last major hurricane to cross the Atlantic and ultimately make a US landfall was Florence in 2018, another El Niño year where atmospheric coupling was still questionable during peak season. The triple dip La Niña that we just got out of, on the other hand, featured majors in 2020 and 2021 that recurved out to sea, and 2022’s F storm was basically a slightly weaker version of Franklin that only differed in that it swept eastern Canada on its recurve. I’ve also been hearing since spring that the gulf and Caribbean would largely be shut off to activity due to El Niño, and we saw how that just went.

I take it that the original comment was just made with hope that this one will recurve out to sea. I hope so too, and statistically, the odds are ever in favor of that outcome. But basing that case on El Niño in this particular season just doesn’t carry weight imo.

Yes I am hoping this one will just follow suit to the others out there....
I understand the standard "El Nino's" suppress hurricanes (ha) and nothing has been "normal" for a while
Thanks for all the replies.

[weeniepatrol]

GEFS trend

More clustered and at a southerly latitude at 84-h

[Meteorcane]

GFS not going to quite be able to shoot the mona passage with this run, will hit Hispanola. Still some troughing over the eastern CONUS, but Bahamas definitely at risk this run.

[Cachondo23]

Unfortunately going to hit the Lesser Antilles with this run (which is much faster than the 18Z). Puerto Rico looks in danger as well.

https://i.imgur.com/GeTgFBb.png

Possible happy hour of the GFS? Once it hits Guadaloupe/Dominica area, it may go to PR. Very similar track to Maria 2017.

[CrazyC83]

I don't like the looks of this at all. This could be our long-tracker of 2023.

[cycloneye]

Well folks, if that happens, I wont be here for a while.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET dropped TCG with this.

[TomballEd]

The new GFS makes it more interesting, but over a week out, which Caribbean islands is getting hit might be a smidge premature. Showing my more weenie side, 1938 started a week later than this and made it to New York.

[IcyTundra]

GEFS tightly clustered through 120 hrs.

[Meteorcane]

Fortunately for the CONUS pretty robust troughing basically in place for most of the medium-extended range over the east coast, doesn't yet seem to be a obvious path for this to make that far west (but we are still at 10 days so not written in stone). Different story for the Caribbean and possibly the Bahamas, if this thing stays low enough latitude certainly the Lesser Antilles, PR, and Hispanola at risk. For that threat to materialize the key will be watching if Gert's remnants get solidly scooped up by Idalia's remnants enabling the Azores High to firmly build in north of the system over the Central Atlantic. If Gert's remnants can linger far enough south, there should be enough of a weakness for this thing to gain some latitude before the islands... that scenario seems to be the consensus but I would like to see the 00Z ensembles.

[IcyTundra]

Fortunately for the CONUS pretty robust troughing basically in place for most of the medium-extended range over the east coast, doesn't yet seem to be a obvious path for this to make that far west (but we are still at 10 days so not written in stone). Different story for the Caribbean and possibly the Bahamas, if this thing stays low enough latitude certainly the Lesser Antilles, PR, and Hispanola at risk. For that threat to materialize the key will be watching if Gert's remnants get solidly scooped up by Idalia's remnants enabling the Azores High to firmly build in north of the system over the Central Atlantic. If Gert's remnants can linger far enough south, there should be enough of a weakness for this thing to gain some latitude before the islands... that scenario seems to be the consensus but I would like to see the 00Z ensembles.

I don't think we have a consensus on anything yet we don't even have an invest yet.

[SFLcane]

Really wild swings from the gfs..

[Cat5James]

These models seem to be inching their way closer west run over run. concerning trend

[Stratton23]

The trend has been more west today, the east coast of florida, the bahamas, caribbean islands and the SE coast all need to watch this, i am definitely not sold on a fish storm yet, very volatile steering pattern, lots can and will change, never write a storm off until you actually see it make the turn away from land

[mantis83]

only thing that's consistent is troughing over the east which will safely recurve anything away from the US

[weeniepatrol]

only thing that's consistent is troughing over the east which will safely recurve anything away from the US