Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 95L)

[Stratton23]

mantis83 Not so fast at all, any change in strength and placement of the trough over the eastern US can have a huge effect on what happens to the system, you can never just assume the trough is going to be in that exact position the models show, still 10+ days from any potential US impacts, it would be foolish to write this-one off when the wave just now has exited africa

[Craters]

So we can get calibrated here, have any of you model gurus noticed any kind of track bias in the GFS yet this year? Or, for that matter, any of the other main models?

[IcyTundra]

00Z GEFS is concerning for the Carribean islands

https://ibb.co/DLx3ms8

[AxaltaRacing24]

Fortunately for the CONUS pretty robust troughing basically in place for most of the medium-extended range over the east coast, doesn't yet seem to be a obvious path for this to make that far west (but we are still at 10 days so not written in stone). Different story for the Caribbean and possibly the Bahamas, if this thing stays low enough latitude certainly the Lesser Antilles, PR, and Hispanola at risk. For that threat to materialize the key will be watching if Gert's remnants get solidly scooped up by Idalia's remnants enabling the Azores High to firmly build in north of the system over the Central Atlantic. If Gert's remnants can linger far enough south, there should be enough of a weakness for this thing to gain some latitude before the islands... that scenario seems to be the consensus but I would like to see the 00Z ensembles.

I don't think we have a consensus on anything yet we don't even have an invest yet.

Being "sold" on any scenario 10+ days out before there is even a designated invest yet is not ideal. What we do know so far is that there will be a developing wave within 72 hours moving west. After that? We do not know yet. Obviously, there are several scenarios on the table currently, and the next 5 days will be interesting.

[Meteorcane]

Fortunately for the CONUS pretty robust troughing basically in place for most of the medium-extended range over the east coast, doesn't yet seem to be a obvious path for this to make that far west (but we are still at 10 days so not written in stone). Different story for the Caribbean and possibly the Bahamas, if this thing stays low enough latitude certainly the Lesser Antilles, PR, and Hispanola at risk. For that threat to materialize the key will be watching if Gert's remnants get solidly scooped up by Idalia's remnants enabling the Azores High to firmly build in north of the system over the Central Atlantic. If Gert's remnants can linger far enough south, there should be enough of a weakness for this thing to gain some latitude before the islands... that scenario seems to be the consensus but I would like to see the 00Z ensembles.

I don't think we have a consensus on anything yet we don't even have an invest yet.

Being "sold" on any scenario 10+ days out before there is even a designated invest yet is not ideal. What we do know so far is that there will be a developing wave within 72 hours moving west. After that? We do not know yet. Obviously, there are several scenarios on the table currently, and the next 5 days will be interesting.

Oh don't get me wrong, I am not sold on anything. The first major "fork" in the forecast, will involve Gert's influence which will be very important for the Caribbean interests (and will likely manifest itself in the 5-7 day range)... we need to get past that fork before we really consider any further impacts downstream in the basin.

[captainbarbossa19]

:spam:

only thing that's consistent is troughing over the east which will safely recurve anything away from the US

I would argue the only consistency we are seeing is the lack of consistency from the GFS right now. I suspect we will know a lot more by Monday if the islands are at risk.

[ElectricStorm]

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave has emerged from the west coast of Africa
and over the extreme eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system by the middle part of next week, and a tropical depression
is likely to form while it moves westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central portions of the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The MDR is very favorable for TC development right now... that alone could favor a scenario where more rapid development (and as a result more poleward motion away from land) could be a key factor in this storms future.

[IsabelaWeather]

The MDR is very favorable for TC development right now... that alone could favor a scenario where more rapid development (and as a result more poleward motion away from land) could be a key factor in this storms future.

I'm not so sure a stronger storm would trend more N in this scenario.

[mantis83]

euro says troughing holds firm off the coast, doesn't even come close at all

[canebeard]

This as about as barren as the tropical Atlantic/Caribbean/GULF (south of the Tropic of Cancer) can be. NADA: except for one little egg that recently dropped into the uterus. Labor Day weekend yet!!!

[GCANE]

The heavy convection falls apart as it moves from land to over water - typical.
LL vorts look disorganized.
Latest GFS has it moving more south and faster than previous run.
Looking like it could be a Carib runner.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS recurves more early but not before moving thru some of the NE Caribbean islands.

[GCANE]

Travelling thru the MDR, GFS forecasts this as a classic protected pouch.
Open wave in a dry environment,
Wont close off until past 50W,
Classic move into the Carib.

[jlauderdal]

Travelling thru the MDR, GFS forecasts this as a classic protected pouch.
Open wave in a dry environment,
Wont close off until past 50W,
Classic move into the Carib.

West of 60 development are the most dangerous, will see on this one

[chris_fit]

00z EPS mean maybe shifted East in the long range but the spread is much much larger. Couple members take it to FL other recurve well NE of the islands. Massive spread. Tells me low confidence.

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the
south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system by the middle part of next week, and a tropical depression
is likely to form while it moves westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central portions of the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

It touches some of the islands of the Lesser Antilles.

[NotSparta]

only thing that's consistent is troughing over the east which will safely recurve anything away from the US

Not the mindset to have when you start looking at a long tracker. Sure there's consistency for that pattern and it seems to be the most likely one who knows what things will look like 10 days-2 weeks from now. Better to focus on the potential impacts for the Leewards before we shift gears to if any of the east coast has to pay it any mind

[cycloneye]

There are some clouds turning.