ATL: LEE - Models

[WalterWhite]

[SFLcane]

Being in Florida personally I don’t feel comfortable being this close so far out so i am watching this one.

[ronjon]

Yes fantasy land territory at 10 days but definitely has the look and track of a major Cape Verde storm. Has model support from GFS, Euro, and CMC. Given the persistent troughing off the US east coast this summer we may be spared here in Florida but way too soon to even speculate on that now.

[emeraldislenc]

I agree way to early to speculate!

[OuterBanker]

Amazing agreement between GFS, Euro and CMC on a hurricane around 22N 68W on the 11th. Euro and GFS OTS around 70W just like Franklin.

[toad strangler]

Yes fantasy land territory at 10 days but definitely has the look and track of a major Cape Verde storm. Has model support from GFS, Euro, and CMC. Given the persistent troughing off the US east coast this summer we may be spared here in Florida but way too soon to even speculate on that now.

500mb is tough enough to nail down even 3 days out. I, being in the SW part of the basin, won't give a thought to upper steering for another 5 days or so. Our friends in the Lesser A's though should be like

[IcyTundra]

12Z GFS slower to develop so far.

[aspen]

12z GFS seems to have dropped it in favor of the next wave, again.

[LarryWx]

12Z GFS slower to develop so far.

Not only does the GFS have very little with this so far, the CMC is similar. Plus the last few ICONs have been weaker than recent days. Also, the 0Z UK had no TC. Trend?

[SFLcane]

12Z GFS slower to develop so far.

Not only does the GFS have very little with this so far, the CMC is similar. Plus the last few ICONs have been weaker than recent days. Also, the 0Z UK had no TC. Trend?

Delayed development… we know what follows

[IcyTundra]

Finally develops as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

[AutoPenalti]

That weird looking low pressure seems to just be hanging around doing loops off the coast.

[LarryWx]

After many runs in a row showing TCG, the last two UK runs, including the new one (12Z), have no TCG. It goes out to 168.

[AutoPenalti]

FWIW it’s SE and weaker than 06z

[Cat5James]

Ridging to the north is stronger and reaches further south on latest run. This forces 95L south of PR.

[cheezyWXguy]

Not buying any runs that don’t show development. Where it goes is a different story, but this thing is nearly classifiable already.

[AutoPenalti]

Crashes into the islands.

[aspen]

CMC and ICON are weaker than yesterday’s 12z runs, and the CMC is far weaker with its other two MDR systems too.

[Kingarabian]

Exceptional TCs moving W/WNW can easily pump the ridge to move SW. Usually goes unmodeled and can have big impacts on track forecast.

[Zonacane]

I'm not sure why the models think it's July. Should be all systems go for this storm. And nobody should be predicting a recurve as of now.