ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TomballEd]

The Euro and GFS ensembles (and their ops) aren't that radically different in a week, really, but the difference in huge in impact.  GFS looks like an E Caribbean threat, Euro only about 200 miles apart, but suggests Bermuda may the only land that keeps 95L a pure fish.  And Bermuda is a small enough target it could be pure fish food.

Curious if fast movement, usually a negative for development, might be helping 95L by reducing the magnitude of the E shear.

[cycloneye]

Moving fast to the west.

[Nimbus]

Currently GFS is forecasting a strong Rossby Wave trofed over MI with an associated surface low when the TC gets in the west Carib.
Need to pay attention to timing which influences the turn north.

Should stay down near the ITCZ as a sharpening wave till it closes off.
NHC said 70% in 5 days so will likely close off sometime, I'd guess between -45W to -50W.
Then it does its spin up and tries to gain latitude if there isn't a Bermuda high with the trough further west.
Idle speculation but I'd prefer an early spin up and recurve before the islands rather than a west Caribbean system.

[floridasun]

we need see models rus by next thur see what it show we see it change like 200 time or more by next thur

[cycloneye]

8 PM=30/70.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the
south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development of this system by the middle
part of next week, and a tropical depression is likely to form while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
eastern and central portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[underthwx]

Moving fast to the west.

https://i.imgur.com/YzNDwhB.gif

Sure looks healthy for a fast forward moving system, is that unusual? As for track, I look at the SFWMD models, they all seem to point towards the islands?

[Sciencerocks]

[zzzh]

Looks much worse on ASCAT now. LLC is decoupled from convection. I think the center will reform on the western side.

[Ianswfl]

Looks much worse on ASCAT now. LLC is decoupled from convection. I think the center will reform on the western side.

Probably stays way south and moves fast then. Might be a problem west of 70 if this keeps up.

[abajan]

Moving fast to the west.

https://i.imgur.com/YzNDwhB.gif

Sure looks healthy for a fast forward moving system, is that unusual? As for track, I look at the SFWMD models, they all seem to point towards the islands?

That fast forward movement actually helps it due to the easterly shear. In other words, the relative shear is less than it would have been had the system been moving slower.

[abajan]

Looks much worse on ASCAT now. LLC is decoupled from convection. I think the center will reform on the western side.

Probably stays way south and moves fast then. Might be a problem west of 70 if this keeps up.

Don't like these systems that take their cool time developing while travelling west then decide to wake up as they near 50W.

[Ianswfl]

Looks much worse on ASCAT now. LLC is decoupled from convection. I think the center will reform on the western side.

Probably stays way south and moves fast then. Might be a problem west of 70 if this keeps up.

Don't like these systems that take their cool time developing while travelling west then decide to wake up as they near 50W.

The 18z GFS does this but it goes so far south it runs into DR/Haiti and gets shredded up the spine. The left overs are more west this run and run into the east coast of FL. If can manage to stay south of DR it could be big trouble for the eastern gulf because eventually it will get pulled north it looks like!

[Brandon8181]

Looks like we could have a major hurricane in about 7 days.

[Hurricaneman]

One thing I noticed is the spin in the convection is getting more concentrated at about 11N and I think we may be in takeoff mode in the next few days

[mantis83]

Latest GFS 355K PV looks conducive for development all the way to the GoM

yeah but no model brings 95l into the gulf, looks to recurve long before then

[Iceresistance]

Latest GFS 355K PV looks conducive for development all the way to the GoM

yeah but no model brings 95l into the gulf, looks to recurve long before then

It does not mean that it can go to the gulf, anything is possible between now and 14-15 days.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update Analysis and thoughts of 95L
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TEtfr_K2d0

[ScottNAtlanta]

One of the things I was looking at was whether Idalia would keep looping around the NW Atlantic or go out. It's looking more like it is going to go out. That means more ridging behind it. How long that sticks around is the question

[dexterlabio]

Idk but the models were also not very consistent at the start with Harvey and even with Irma. Perhaps today the models suddenly had a different solution but the next day could be another solution that is perhaps more troubling.

[abajan]