ATL: LEE - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS goes against its own ensembles, which still for the most part show development.

[Blown Away]

[AutoPenalti]

Even in a weakened state, 95L gets into the Bahamas, stalls and moves away.

[Cat5James]

Even in a weakened state, 95L gets into the Bahamas, stalls and moves away.

0 skill/confidence in steering currents 7+ days out

[gatorcane]

Here is what the experimental FV3 FIM model has. Looks like Global Systems Laboratory is still running this model. I looked back at the track it had for Idalia and it did reasonably well. If you are interested in following this model, which is based on the GFS model fields, here is the link:

https://fim.noaa.gov/FV3new/Welcome.cgi ... 2023+-+12Z

[Nimbus]

Here is what the experimental FV3 FIM model has. Looks like Global Systems Laboratory is still running this model. I looked back at the track it had for Idalia and it did reasonably well. If you are interested in following this model, which is based on the GFS model fields, here is the link:

https://fim.noaa.gov/FV3new/Welcome.cgi ... 2023+-+12Z

https://i.postimg.cc/bNXqWzJ0/wspeed-WAtlantic-10m-f168.png

There is a trough in the this run between 120 hours and 168 hours it doesn't move much.

[Nimbus]

Beyond 120 hours the ridging 95L is embedded in pushes west.
You can't be sure it won't miss the trough and continue WNW that far out can you?

[gatorcane]

00Z TVCN shifted quite a bit north. Check out the intensity guidance though notably the GFS and UKMET are weak:

[Nimbus]

00Z TVCN shifted quite a bit north. Check out the intensity guidance though notably the GFS and UKMET are weak:

https://i.postimg.cc/QMpWv6gS/95-L-tracks-latest.png
https://i.postimg.cc/x8dJJnwF/95-L-intensity-00z.png

Good news this run!

[Meteorcane]

position largely unchanged through 120 hours on the 00Z GFS, some modest weakening of the ridging to its north relative to the 12 and 18Z runs, maybe a chance to miss the islands to the north on this run, but not a sure thing.

GFS, after a series of more aggressive runs, back to being very conservative on development of this system. Overall once easterly shear improves in a couple of days and outflow channels become better established, sort of have a hard time believing this system stays so weak (although the EC has backed off on early development as well). The system is so weak and poorly established in this GFS solution that it doesn't even survive its encounters with the Caribbean islands. Once again not too much confidence in that solution (both that far south and that weak).

[LarryWx]

After two runs without TCG being noted on the UKMET, the new run (0Z) has TCG. Together with a much stronger CMC vs 12Z, there is some reversal of recent runs' weakening trends despite the 0Z GFS being similar to its recent weaker runs.

0Z UKMET: moving WNW at 15 just N of Leewards at 168:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 14.8N 44.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2023 84 14.8N 44.0W 1010 24
0000UTC 07.09.2023 96 15.7N 45.9W 1009 27
1200UTC 07.09.2023 108 16.4N 47.8W 1008 29
0000UTC 08.09.2023 120 17.2N 50.6W 1008 26
1200UTC 08.09.2023 132 17.8N 53.7W 1008 29
0000UTC 09.09.2023 144 18.3N 56.3W 1007 27
1200UTC 09.09.2023 156 18.6N 59.6W 1007 31
0000UTC 10.09.2023 168 19.5N 62.1W 1005 32

[Meteorcane]

This is not to be unexpected at 240 hours... but these runs really do highlight just how divergent model solutions can be at that time horizon. Note the difference in the 500mb pattern at 240 between the Canadian and the GFS... good reason to not necessarily hug one solution.

[IcyTundra]

Well the 00Z models are a lot stronger except for the GFS.

[mantis83]

euro basically the same last few runs, north of the islands before recurving safely up and out

[REDHurricane]

EPS 00z has an uncomfortably high number of members showing 95L developing into a major hurricane north of Puerto Rico 8 days out -- I can make out a 927mb, 930mb, two 938mb, two 940mb, two 941mb, 942mb, 943mb, 944mb, two 947mb, and plenty more in the 950-960mb range. Still a long way to go obviously, but even the GEFS has multiple members in the 940-960mb range at the same time, so this will certainly be one to pay close attention to for those who live anywhere in the Caribbean or SE US

[gatorcane]

The most consistent model so far has been the ECMWF which has consistently brought the storm just north of the islands on a WNW track where it ultimately slows it down and/or turns it north (see first chart). The 500MB prediction from the Euro has consistently shown a trough over Eastern North America and the Western Atlantic and the other models show it (e.g., see the second chart showing the GEFS mean) as well giving some confidence some kind of weakness should be there, however, still a bit too far out to know for sure.

Check out the intensity guidance this morning which include more models jumping on board for a stronger storm .

[Iceresistance]

EPS 00z has an uncomfortably high number of members showing 95L developing into a major hurricane north of Puerto Rico 8 days out -- I can make out a 927mb, 930mb, two 938mb, two 940mb, two 941mb, 942mb, 943mb, 944mb, two 947mb, and plenty more in the 950-960mb range. Still a long way to go obviously, but even the GEFS has multiple members in the 940-960mb range at the same time, so this will certainly be one to pay close attention to for those who live anywhere in the Caribbean or SE US

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2023090300/eps_lowlocs_atl_33.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023090300/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_33.png

In WeatherNerds, there is a 912 mb storm, that is the lowest one I have ever seen from a member on the Euro-ENS

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgY94.png
(There is also a 916 between a 993 and a 1001, I didn't notice it until now)

[NotSparta]

The most consistent model so far has been the ECMWF which has consistently brought the storm just north of the islands on a WNW track where it ultimately slows it down and/or turns it north (see first chart). The 500MB prediction from the Euro has consistently shown a trough over Eastern North America and the Western Atlantic and the other models show it (e.g., see the second chart showing the GEFS mean) as well giving some confidence some kind of weakness should be there, however, still a bit too far out to know for sure.

Check out the intensity guidance this morning which include more models jumping on board for a stronger storm .

https://i.postimg.cc/TwZLDd1Q/ec-fast-z500a-Norm-atl-fh0-240.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/mkmfMZNJ/gfs-ens-z500a-Norm-atl-41.png
https://i.postimg.cc/VNn384M6/95-L-intensity-06z.png

Intensity models sure more impressive than a little bit ago where only the unreliable (for invests) statistical models did anything

[gatorcane]

Guidance coming into agreement here with the TVCN track north of the islands. Let’s hope it stays there because check out the new intensity guidance:

[SFLcane]

Guidance coming into agreement here with the TVCN track north of the islands. Let’s hope it stays there because check out the new intensity guidance:

https://i.postimg.cc/1Xgzs077/95-L-tracks-12z.png
https://i.postimg.cc/52PNYRcK/95-L-intensity-12z.png

Bams bending westward..