2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[emeraldislenc]

I think before the satellite era lots of hurricanes came off of Africa after Sept 4 or 5. The great Miami hurricane was first noticed on the 17th of Sept in the Lesser Antilles no doubt it probably came off of Africa I think that was in 1926. I think it is not wise to stay after Sept 5 no Cape Verde Storms never made it to Conus. Before satellites I am confident many storms came off Africa after early Sept.

[AnnularCane]

I think before the satellite era lots of hurricanes came off of Africa after Sept 4 or 5. The great Miami hurricane was first noticed on the 17th of Sept in the Lesser Antilles no doubt it probably came off of Africa I think that was in 1926. I think it is not wise to stay after Sept 5 no Cape Verde Storms never made it to Conus. Before satellites I am confident many storms came off Africa after early Sept.

Not to mention Georges and Hugo.

[crownweather]

I think before the satellite era lots of hurricanes came off of Africa after Sept 4 or 5. The great Miami hurricane was first noticed on the 17th of Sept in the Lesser Antilles no doubt it probably came off of Africa I think that was in 1926. I think it is not wise to stay after Sept 5 no Cape Verde Storms never made it to Conus. Before satellites I am confident many storms came off Africa after early Sept.

Not to mention Georges and Hugo.

Also Gloria (1985) was a classic CV hurricane that almost reached Cat 5 strength at one point. Moved off of Africa around September 16.

[zzzh]

A wave will exit Africa in day 7-8 range, and reaches 40W in day ~11. Some EPS members are on board, and overall condition looks favorable.

[LAF92]

A wave will exit Africa in day 7-8 range, and reaches 40W in day ~11. Some EPS members are on board, and overall condition looks favorable.

Not sure if this is the same wave but there’s a wave in the 18z GFS exits Africa Monday the 11th and goes across the Atlantic barely anything then reaches north of PR around September 17th then picks up steam and gets to 944mb at towards the end of the run heading WNW

[CFLHurricane]

A wave will exit Africa in day 7-8 range, and reaches 40W in day ~11. Some EPS members are on board, and overall condition looks favorable.

Not sure if this is the same wave but there’s a wave in the 18z GFS exits Africa Monday the 11th and goes across the Atlantic barely anything then reaches north of PR around September 17th then picks up steam and gets to 944mb at towards the end of the run heading WNW

Not just heading WNW, but also in prime position to get trapped under a building high from the Midwest. It would be a truly cruel trick after sparing the Southeast from Lee.

[LarryWx]

I think before the satellite era lots of hurricanes came off of Africa after Sept 4 or 5. The great Miami hurricane was first noticed on the 17th of Sept in the Lesser Antilles no doubt it probably came off of Africa I think that was in 1926. I think it is not wise to stay after Sept 5 no Cape Verde Storms never made it to Conus. Before satellites I am confident many storms came off Africa after early Sept.

Not to mention Georges and Hugo.

Also Gloria (1985) was a classic CV hurricane that almost reached Cat 5 strength at one point. Moved off of Africa around September 16.

In 1893, storm #9 formed S of the CVs on Sept 25th and hit the Carolinas on Oct 13th as a MH. Sep 25th is the latest on record for an E MDR TC to form that later hit the CONUS:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1893.png

[emeraldislenc]

It would be interesting to find where the early stages of Hurricane Hazel formed which hit on the NC/SC border on Oct.15th.

[emeraldislenc]

I know Hazel approached the Antilles as a wave on Oct. 5, but this was before satellites and hurricane hunters were sent out on the 6 or 7 to investigate the wave.

[Teban54]

A wave will exit Africa in day 7-8 range, and reaches 40W in day ~11. Some EPS members are on board, and overall condition looks favorable.

0z GFS shows this wave becoming a Lee redux, peaking at 935 mb and on a similar trajectory as Lee.

CMC has also been showing this wave becoming a hurricane the past few runs.

[kevin]

A wave will exit Africa in day 7-8 range, and reaches 40W in day ~11. Some EPS members are on board, and overall condition looks favorable.

0z GFS shows this wave becoming a Lee redux, peaking at 935 mb and on a similar trajectory as Lee.

CMC has also been showing this wave becoming a hurricane the past few runs.

The Atlantic the last few weeks:

[AJC3]

FYI...

Came across a very good tropical models page from a Univ. of OK PHD student. Has a multi-model ensemble plot of Lee using the GFS, EC, CMC, and UKMET ensembles. Lots of other stuff, too.

Select "Cumulative Plots", "Total Density (no lines)" for the graphic that shows the probability of the center passing within 150km of a point using all 4 ensembles.

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/ensembles.php?storm=AL132023

[Teban54]

Good thread (before and after this tweet) on the possible development of the next AEW after Margot.
 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1699967784308887623

[ElectricStorm]

12z CMC has a hurricane affecting the islands from a wave behind Margot. GFS is trying to get it going as well. Needs to be watched

[jlauderdal]

12z CMC has a hurricane affecting the islands from a wave behind Margot. GFS is trying to get it going as well. Needs to be watched

Bear watch in effect

[Cachondo23]

12z CMC has a hurricane affecting the islands from a wave behind Margot. GFS is trying to get it going as well. Needs to be watched

Future Nigel? We’re entering the typical week the NE Caribbean get’s something in its area. Any thoughts of how strong will the High Pressure be? Interesting and difficult scenario to forecast giving that Lee and Margot will be out there for a while.

[ElectricStorm]

18z GFS has two MDR systems in the mid-long range, one enters the Caribbean as a hurricane and the other is a quick recurve strong TS/Cat 1 just west of Cabo Verde

[MetroMike]

18z GFS has two MDR systems in the mid-long range, one enters the Caribbean as a hurricane and the other is a quick recurve strong TS/Cat 1 just west of Cabo Verde

One that enters the Caribbean grows to a monster and ends up going up into the Eastern Gulf.
By wary if the GFS does as good as the current system.

[Ianswfl]

18z GFS has two MDR systems in the mid-long range, one enters the Caribbean as a hurricane and the other is a quick recurve strong TS/Cat 1 just west of Cabo Verde

One that enters the Caribbean grows to a monster and ends up going up into the Eastern Gulf.
By wary if the GFS does as good as the current system.

Yea, end of run looks like another major in the eastern gulf. Run ends near keywest. But looks like a terrible path for Tampa on South as a major.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS… Goes over Hispaniola & Cuba and maintains MH into KW and EGOM…