ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hugo1989]

Nobody can affirm that Puerto Rico is clear from a potential impact of this system. I just got a bad feeling, and they should monitor this system closely!

[zhukm29]

I wonder if future 13L will be one of those rare systems with a M in its first advisory. I think only Tomas and Sam had a 100kt forecast point in advisory 1, but with the model guidance going absolutely nuts, this could be our next candidate.

[MarioProtVI]

I’ll be honest given the amount of models being very bullish with this I’ll be a bit disappointed if this doesn’t become a Cat 5.

[Cachondo23]

Nobody can affirm that Puerto Rico is clear from a potential impact of this system. I just got a bad feeling, and they should monitor this system closely!

If this develops tonight or tomorrow AM, difficult to go straight to NE Caribbean, even more hard to the PR area. I don’t see the thought of “the longer it takes to develop the more west it goes”…

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2023090418, , BEST, 0, 114N, 349W, 30, 1010, LO

[kevin]

I wonder if future 13L will be one of those rare systems with a M in its first advisory. I think only Tomas and Sam had a 100kt forecast point in advisory 1, but with the model guidance going absolutely nuts, this could be our next candidate.

I have a nice overview for this . Posted it with Larry and Sam, here is the updated version for the first advisory peak intensity. Based on NHC advisories since 1998 (of which the 1998 - 2002 advisories only went to +72 hrs).

100 kt
2021 - Sam
2010 - Tomas

95 kt
2022 - Ian
2021 - Ida
2020 - Iota
2019 - Lorenzo
2012 - Isaac
2010 - Danielle
2005 - Philippe
2004 - Karl

90 kt
2021 - Larry
2017 - Jose
2016 - Matthew
2009 - Bill
2007 - Dean

85 kt
2020 - Delta
2015 - Danny
2014 - Gonzalo
2011 - Katia
2010 - Earl
2010 - Igor
2006 - Helene
2005 - Wilma

80 kt
2022 - Danielle
2020 - Teddy
2019 - Jerry
2017 - Irma
2017 - Maria
2016 - Gaston
2012 - Leslie
2005 - Rita
2004 - Earl
1999 - Emily

Edit: Thanks SconnieCane, added Irma to the 80 kt list.
Edit2: Thanks Extratropical94 for the other 3 additions.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1698767784438587690

[SconnieCane]

I wonder if future 13L will be one of those rare systems with a M in its first advisory. I think only Tomas and Sam had a 100kt forecast point in advisory 1, but with the model guidance going absolutely nuts, this could be our next candidate.

I have a nice overview for this . Posted it with Larry and Sam, here is the updated version for the first advisory peak intensity. Based on NHC advisories since 1998 (of which the 1998 - 2002 advisories only went to +72 hrs).

100 kt
2021 - Sam
2010 - Tomas

95 kt
2022 - Ian
2021 - Ida
2020 - Iota
2019 - Lorenzo
2012 - Isaac
2010 - Danielle
2005 - Philippe
2004 - Karl

90 kt
2021 - Larry
2017 - Jose
2016 - Matthew
2009 - Bill
2007 - Dean

85 kt
2020 - Delta
2015 - Danny
2014 - Gonzalo
2011 - Katia
2010 - Earl
2010 - Igor
2005 - Wilma

80 kt
2022 - Danielle
2020 - Teddy
2019 - Jerry
2017 - Maria
2016 - Gaston
2012 - Leslie
2005 - Rita

Irma of 2017 was in the 80kt group as well. I'm actually surprised it wasn't more bullish, given the fact that it was already designated a 45-kt TS at the time advisories were initiated. However the advisory discussion did mention some adverse conditions coming up, and the soon-to-be infamous cyclone did indeed struggle with them for a couple of days before blowing up as it approached the Leewards.

[aspen]

This has such a good mid-level spin. It just needs some convection over the center to work that down to the surface and tighten it. Most of the deep convection over the last two days has been limited to the northern border of the circulation.

[CyclonicFury]

https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1698767784438587690

Sam 2021 had a very similar feature before it formed, which went on to become a long-track 135kt C4.
 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1440478046012641290

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1698782854833201300

[Extratropical94]

I wonder if future 13L will be one of those rare systems with a M in its first advisory. I think only Tomas and Sam had a 100kt forecast point in advisory 1, but with the model guidance going absolutely nuts, this could be our next candidate.

I have a nice overview for this . Posted it with Larry and Sam, here is the updated version for the first advisory peak intensity. Based on NHC advisories since 1998 (of which the 1998 - 2002 advisories only went to +72 hrs).

[...]

Just ran a script through the archives and found three more storms that are missing on here:

85 kt
2006 - Helene

80 kt
2004 - Earl
1999 - Emily

[Emmett_Brown]

Short term motion is kind of interesting. Obviously there is no distinct center yet, so it's not possible to confirm a specific heading. But it appears to be tracking straight W 270 degrees. The cluster of models including the TVCN blended guidance suggest that the storm should already be moving more WNW, and continue for the next 5 days. This matters for the Leeward islands.

[SconnieCane]

Global and hurricane models suggest at a minimum this will be a very close call for the far northern Leewards. Ironic since the ghost of this year's edition is still pinwheeling around in the belly of zombie Franklin; but perhaps a Jose 2017-like track would be a close analog.

[Sciencerocks]

[Dsci4]

Short term motion is kind of interesting. Obviously there is no distinct center yet, so it's not possible to confirm a specific heading. But it appears to be tracking straight W 270 degrees. The cluster of models including the TVCN blended guidance suggest that the storm should already be moving more WNW, and continue for the next 5 days. This matters for the Leeward islands.

I agree with you. I’ve been watching the visible for signs of a center and it does appear to be moving much more westerly all day today. And we don’t have an official center which could complicate the starting point of the models especially if it pulls a fast one and forms toward the southern half. I don’t think they have the track wrong as it crosses the Atlantic but we most certainly don’t want early track errors to start a trend

[floridasun]

we need hope this will be out to sea if become cat 3 or 4

[ConvergenceZone]

While you can never say never, I'm really liking today's trends of bringing the storm even further offshore than before, probably due to quick anticipated strengthening. Now we just need to get it East of Bermuda and we will be in good shape! Feeling much much better today than a few days ago that's for sure...I've loving all of these storms moving out to sea. The one we had in Florida as enough for the year........

[cycloneye]

Believe me, I am watching from PR closely every motion 95L is doing as it will be important down the road. I am sure our friends in the Leewards and Virgin Islands are also watching.

[kevin]

I wonder if future 13L will be one of those rare systems with a M in its first advisory. I think only Tomas and Sam had a 100kt forecast point in advisory 1, but with the model guidance going absolutely nuts, this could be our next candidate.

I have a nice overview for this . Posted it with Larry and Sam, here is the updated version for the first advisory peak intensity. Based on NHC advisories since 1998 (of which the 1998 - 2002 advisories only went to +72 hrs).

[...]

Just ran a script through the archives and found three more storms that are missing on here:

85 kt
2006 - Helene

80 kt
2004 - Earl
1999 - Emily

Thanks, I added it to my post. Now the overview should be complete .