ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hipshot]

AL, 95, 2023090500, , BEST, 0, 112N, 362W, 25, 1011, DB

Continues west.

https://i.imgur.com/28jxIbj.png

I don't see much of a bend to the northwest, when is that supposed to happen and what will cause it to make the course change?

[cheezyWXguy]

AL, 95, 2023090500, , BEST, 0, 112N, 362W, 25, 1011, DB

Continues west.

https://i.imgur.com/28jxIbj.png

I don't see much of a bend to the northwest, when is that supposed to happen and what will cause it to make the course change?

Since the Bermuda high is relatively weak, it should get a bit more of a poleward turn once it starts to strengthen

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/g3qsrCu.jpg
King ASCAT direct hit again, that's 6 in a row
Back to the topic, low level circulation is still broad, needs to tighten up.

Wrong thread, can anyone move this post to discussion thread?

Moved to here and also, a few more posts.

[CrazyC83]

Tropical weather always are a changing thing and things change on a dime and we can't take for granted or as a stone a forecast or the models. My always all clear from a direct hit for the NE Caribbean islands is when a storm moves past the 20N latitude line.

You taught me about 20N years ago. I always use it now as an all clear too.

Thanks Barbara. We are caribbean folks that like to help others in the islands in terms of the weather and especially, on hurricane season.

A few storms crossed it then sunk back south into the Caribbean (such as Ike) so I wouldn't always use 20N as the line personally, but I don't see a setup where a ridge is rebuilding like that.

[abajan]

I was going to write a comment about this earlier but it's been so long since we've had a scenario like this I doubted if it was even a feasible thing to take into account. Basically if 95L is forecast to be a monster powerful hurricane it's possible the hurricane itself can influence certain steering currents. Remember when a hurricane gets extremely deep it can potentially pump up the ridge which is something we've seen with previous intense hurricanes that went further west than model guidance suggested

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1698821596620697809

Yes, the pumping-the-ridge effect had certainly crossed my mind a few times too.

[Kingarabian]

I was going to write a comment about this earlier but it's been so long since we've had a scenario like this I doubted if it was even a feasible thing to take into account. Basically if 95L is forecast to be a monster powerful hurricane it's possible the hurricane itself can influence certain steering currents. Remember when a hurricane gets extremely deep it can potentially pump up the ridge which is something we've seen with previous intense hurricanes that went further west than model guidance suggested

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1698821596620697809

The infamous pump up the ridge talk begins.
I have heard this before and believe it is mostly
a falsehood that modeling doesn’t reflect the
influence of a powerful hurricane.

But I am not an expert so I can’t really say for sure.

Models can easily miss the effects of a strong TC pumping the ridge. Dora was a good example of this. Tracked further SW than what the models predicted.

[zzzh]

Unfiltered version. A closed but broad circulation with 30kt wind.

[Blown Away]

AL, 95, 2023090500, , BEST, 0, 112N, 362W, 25, 1011, DB

Continues west.

https://i.imgur.com/28jxIbj.png

I don't see much of a bend to the northwest, when is that supposed to happen and what will cause it to make the course change?

.2 S of 18z… These are the adjustments we have to watch for the NE Caribbean…

[Sciencerocks]

[CrazyC83]

With the coarse resolution of ASCAT, if it was enough of a circulation, I'd say it is already 35 kt.

[zzzh]

https://i.imgur.com/t84UCy4.png
Unfiltered version. A closed but broad circulation with 30kt wind.

FNMOC version. This is at least a TD.

[NotSparta]

I was going to write a comment about this earlier but it's been so long since we've had a scenario like this I doubted if it was even a feasible thing to take into account. Basically if 95L is forecast to be a monster powerful hurricane it's possible the hurricane itself can influence certain steering currents. Remember when a hurricane gets extremely deep it can potentially pump up the ridge which is something we've seen with previous intense hurricanes that went further west than model guidance suggested

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1698821596620697809

The infamous pump up the ridge talk begins.
I have heard this before and believe it is mostly
a falsehood that modeling doesn’t reflect the
influence of a powerful hurricane.

But I am not an expert so I can’t really say for sure.

Models can easily miss the effects of a strong TC pumping the ridge. Dora was a good example of this. Tracked further SW than what the models predicted.

Dora was already moving WSW to begin with. I find those ridge patterns are hard to shake and usually storms keep moving WSW longer than expected. Irma did that too

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/t84UCy4.png
Unfiltered version. A closed but broad circulation with 30kt wind.

Classifiable from this pass.

[Kingarabian]

The infamous pump up the ridge talk begins.
I have heard this before and believe it is mostly
a falsehood that modeling doesn’t reflect the
influence of a powerful hurricane.

But I am not an expert so I can’t really say for sure.

Models can easily miss the effects of a strong TC pumping the ridge. Dora was a good example of this. Tracked further SW than what the models predicted.

Dora was already moving WSW to begin with. I find those ridge patterns are hard to shake and usually storms keep moving WSW longer than expected. Irma did that too

Yeah. Models failed to pick up on the extended SW motion though.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1698898502552555664

[Dsci4]

AL, 95, 2023090500, , BEST, 0, 112N, 362W, 25, 1011, DB

Continues west.

https://i.imgur.com/28jxIbj.png

I don't see much of a bend to the northwest, when is that supposed to happen and what will cause it to make the course change?

.2 S of 18z… These are the adjustments we have to watch for the NE Caribbean…

Earlier it looked like the center might be coming together closer to 12N but the latest ascat shows that has clearly shifted closer to 11N. Confirmed with the 0z best track. Hoping it starts the WNW motion by tomorrow evening

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have become a little
better organized over the past several hours. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the next day
or so while the low moves toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph
across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional strengthening,
possibly to a hurricane, is likely later this week while the system
moves over western portions of the tropical Atlantic, near or to the
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. For additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

[Visioen]

I was going to write a comment about this earlier but it's been so long since we've had a scenario like this I doubted if it was even a feasible thing to take into account. Basically if 95L is forecast to be a monster powerful hurricane it's possible the hurricane itself can influence certain steering currents. Remember when a hurricane gets extremely deep it can potentially pump up the ridge which is something we've seen with previous intense hurricanes that went further west than model guidance suggested

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1698821596620697809

The infamous pump up the ridge talk begins.
I have heard this before and believe it is mostly
a falsehood that modeling doesn’t reflect the
influence of a powerful hurricane.

But I am not an expert so I can’t really say for sure.

I wouldn't say modeling doesn't reflect the influence of a powerful hurricane, the key to me is that modeling is pretty bad at predicting the intensity of a future hurricane.

[AtlanticWind]

I was going to write a comment about this earlier but it's been so long since we've had a scenario like this I doubted if it was even a feasible thing to take into account. Basically if 95L is forecast to be a monster powerful hurricane it's possible the hurricane itself can influence certain steering currents. Remember when a hurricane gets extremely deep it can potentially pump up the ridge which is something we've seen with previous intense hurricanes that went further west than model guidance suggested

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1698821596620697809

The infamous pump up the ridge talk begins.
I have heard this before and believe it is mostly
a falsehood that modeling doesn’t reflect the
influence of a powerful hurricane.

But I am not an expert so I can’t really say for sure.

I wouldn't say modeling doesn't reflect the influence of a powerful hurricane, the key to me is that modeling is pretty bad at predicting the intensity of a future hurricane.

Yes , I think we know modeling doesn’t always get the intensity right.
The question I believe is when the models are showing a powerful hurricane(as most are now)
do they not reflect the path correctly due to not being able to reflect the influence on the Upper level
environment of such a strong storm?