ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Models will do better when they have a closed low to initialize with.
ASCAT last night shows it was still attached to the ITCZ but with this mornings convection it will probably close off closer to -45 than -50. SSTs are warmer in September so potentially good news for the islands that its not spinning up late. Haven't seen any ridge trapping model runs with tracks that threaten the ConUS yet.

[Teban54]

Models will do better when they have a closed low to initialize with.
ASCAT last night shows it was still attached to the ITCZ but with this mornings convection it will probably close off closer to -45 than -50. SSTs are warmer in September so potentially good news for the islands that its not spinning up late. Haven't seen any ridge trapping model runs with tracks that threaten the ConUS yet.

Glad to hear that Long Island and New England have been excluded from CONUS

[abajan]

Excerpt from 8 AM Tropical Weather Update:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located
about midway between western Africa and the Windward Islands has
become better organized overnight. If current trends continue,
advisories would be issued later today on a tropical cyclone moving
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical
Atlantic. Additional strengthening to a hurricane is likely later
this week while the system moves over western portions of the
tropical Atlantic, near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands. For additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Subtle change in wording (i.e., the word possibly has been omitted).

[Blown Away]

NHC cone changes from 2am to 8am... There appears to be a pattern change...

[SecondBreakfast]

“Sandy 2.0” is getting hyped to the moon on social media and I don’t like it one bit.

[abajan]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Pfbng41f/NHC-8am.jpg [/url]

NHC cone changes from 2am to 8am... There appears to be a pattern change...

After closely examining those images I think it's just that AL95 is now expected to become a tropical cyclone earlier than previously thought.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like a td to me now, that circulation appears a good deal more consolidated than last night.

[kevin]

Agreed with the TD, I think NHC will pull the trigger at 11am.

[Blown Away]

95L is flying and appears COC is farther N @12.6N/40.5W...

[abajan]

Have any of you ever seen a TWO where the NHC was so confident an invest would become a hurricane? I can't recall any.

[chaser1]

Have any of you ever seen a TWO where the NHC was so confident an invest would become a hurricane? I can't recall any.

I was thinking the same thing; Pretty bullish indeed!

[underthwx]

I noticed an area north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico this morning on satellite, I don't think it's tagged by the NHC tho....just curious wassup...(sorry for off-topic question)

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2023090512, , BEST, 0, 122N, 396W, 30, 1008, LO

[WalterWhite]

AL, 95, 2023090512, , BEST, 0, 122N, 396W, 30, 1008, LO

https://i.imgur.com/hnw6HkX.png

It seems to have moved a fair bit north. Hopefully this continues.

[Tireman4]

Have any of you ever seen a TWO where the NHC was so confident an invest would become a hurricane? I can't recall any.

I was thinking the same thing; Pretty bullish indeed!

This one will be interesting. Very interesting.

[canebeard]

Have any of you ever seen a TWO where the NHC was so confident an invest would become a hurricane? I can't recall any.

The 100% is very unusual. Maybe they should have said 97.3%. I think the only other time I have seen that is when they were already preparing advisories for the upcoming package time, three hours later.

[Dsci4]

AL, 95, 2023090512, , BEST, 0, 122N, 396W, 30, 1008, LO

https://i.imgur.com/hnw6HkX.png

Very happy to see this!

[Buck]

At the start of the season, Lee was one of the names I pegged to be one of the “baddies” of the year (either in intensity or impact). Looks like it could be trending that way. Expecting advisories in an hour.

[zzzh]

AL132023 - Tropical Depression THIRTEEN

[WalterWhite]

AL132023 - Tropical Depression THIRTEEN

According to whom? This system is still listed as Invest 95L on the best track database.