MED: DANIEL - Post-Tropical/Aftermath

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

A cut-off cyclone will develop over the Central Mediterranean Sea in the next few days which could aquire tropical characteristics by the weekend as it will move slowly southward. Model support is pretty good right now for at least a weak TS, but the current GFS run is more agressive. The SST's are around 27-28 °C in that region, so if the other conditions will be good and the cyclone don't reach the land too fast, it probably could strengthen quickly.

GFS:


Canadian:


Swiss:


ICON:

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

The model-madness begins, the actual run of Swiss model takes the cyclone into the Eastern Mediterranean with a Category 2 peak intensity near Cyprus.

[Sciencerocks]

cmc loop

[Europa non è lontana]

ICON and Canadian are pretty keen on this - both have a sub-1000mb TS into the eastern Gulf of Sidra between Benghazi and Ajdabiya in about a week. ICON models very significant rain impacts - a month's worth of rain in 3 hours for eastern Benghazi district. Quite far out, but bears watching.

[Sciencerocks]

GFS

cmc

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Most of the models didn't change much since yesterday, however, the latest ICON is weaker compared to the prevoius runs, and the GFS also took back from the development yesterday, but its latest run a litle bit better. The Swiss model varies highly depending on the position of the vortex and the rate of the formation, the latest run show that the low will become nearly stationary in the middle of the sea for 2-3 days before strengthening into a strong hurricane as heading toward Bengasi.

[Europa non è lontana]

12z ICON and Canadian still forecast extremely significant rain impacts in northeastern Libya even with the weaker solutions, with some areas receiving 6 months' rainfall in 24 hours. Euro has landfall in the same general area but with slightly less rain, about a month's worth of rainfall in 24 hours. The JMA has a solution further west, closer to Misrata. The system should emerge from the Balkan peninsula soon; Greece has already issued red-level rain warnings for coastal regions due to the precursor system.

[Extratropical94]

Highly unlikely solution, but the 06Z Swiss model predicts the precursor system to bring almost 90 inches of rain to parts of Greece over the course of three days
That would be about three to four years' worth of rain for that region

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1698833658747003080

[Europa non è lontana]

Disturbance emerged over Ionian Sea in the night.



Euro 0z run is interesting - this time around, it has the system skirting the northern coast of Libya and dumping a month's worth of rain in a day, intensifying in the eastern Med, and then landfalling in Cyprus and Turkey. This is in contrast to most other global models, which have landfall along the Gulf of Sidra.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

If these data are correct, it already fell 200-500 mm rain locally along the coastline of the Aegean Sea and around 100 mm further west (select today's rain from the parameters). https://www.meteo.gr/Gmap.cfm
There is also a precipitation data above 600 mm in Theologos, but it seems incorract based on the nearby data and a Weather Underground PWS data from that city.

[kevin]

Enormous rainfall quantities in Greece already. As of 2 hours ago there was already 528 mm in Zagora with potentially hundreds more mm awaiting. I don't know how reliable the figures are, but if correct we're talking about a once-in-a-lifetime rainfall event for Greece. This will most like surpass Ianos as the wettest medicane ever (644.7 mm in Cephalonia) and also record-breaking rainfall in Greece in general.

[Buck]

I’m confused… who has named this Daniel?

[underthwx]

This is a headline from Severe Weather Europe...."A potential Medicane is Forecast to form in the Ionian Sea this week, posing a heavy Rainfall threat for Sicily and Malta. Major Flooding Event Expected for Greece"

[underthwx]

"According to reports, the weather pattern over Europe has developed 'a large Omega-blocking High, surrounded by two deep lows on the side"(Wales online source).....there is also a heat wave in progress over Western Europe?...are these all contributing factors to this developing situation with the cyclone?

[underthwx]

I’m confused… who has named this Daniel?

Put me down as confused too, where does the name "Daniel" come from?...

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

"According to reports, the weather pattern over Europe has developed 'a large Omega-blocking High, surrounded by two deep lows on the side"(Wales online source).....there is also a heat wave in progress over Western Europe?...are these all contributing factors to this developing situation with the cyclone?

Yes, we have a classic Omega-block right now. This Greek cyclone is on its eastern side and there is a larger cyclonic system (including ex-Franklin) on the western side over the East Atlantic. And especially in France the maximum temperature is between 30-35 °C.
The storm's name likely came from Greece (like Ianos in 2020), but I don't know exactly. However, all media refer to that.

[DanieleItalyRm]

#DANIEL for fu Berlin univeristy or aeronautica militare italiana.

[underthwx]

"According to reports, the weather pattern over Europe has developed 'a large Omega-blocking High, surrounded by two deep lows on the side"(Wales online source).....there is also a heat wave in progress over Western Europe?...are these all contributing factors to this developing situation with the cyclone?

Yes, we have a classic Omega-block right now. This Greek cyclone is on its eastern side and there is a larger cyclonic system (including ex-Franklin) on the western side over the East Atlantic. And espacially in France the maximum temperature is between 30-35 °C.

https://i.imgur.com/opcgL2v.png

Thanks for the info, I'm reading reports of cars being washed out to sea in parts of Greece, by the rainfall, this is a serious situation, I cannot comprehend the amounts of rainfall being predicted....

[underthwx]

I looked at Zoom Earth visible satellite of the Mediterranean Sea, it is to me quite an incredible sight to behold, I encourage everyone to check it out, I apologize I cannot share the image, I must admit I don't know how....