ATL: LEE - Models

[aspen]

The HWRF and HAFS-A/B have trending to a smaller core this morning, nearly pinhole for the latter. The HAFS models once again yield Cat 5 intensity: 145 kt/919 mbar for A and 150 kt/908 mbar for B.

[kevin]

06z ICON is its strongest run yet with 963 mb at +120 hrs, 21 mb stronger than the last run at that time interval.

[kevin]

HAFS-B . Also look at the model explicitly predicting a pinhole eye from roughly +90hrs to +110hrs.

[Ianswfl]

One gfs ensembles member is near Jacksonville now

[AutoPenalti]

UKMET seems off… this system is already north of the first forecast point

[Ianswfl]

UKMET seems off… this system is already north of the first forecast point

The euro ensembles also now trending more west. 00z a couple members bending to the west at the end now. 06z even a bit more south very close to the islands. Seems to be seeing a change in the ridging

[Spacecoast]

06z Ensembles:

..................................

[kevin]

Rough forecasts if we would base them on single hurricane model runs (assuming 0 hrs is 11am today). 06z for the hurricane models, 00z for the globals.

Hour / HWRF / HMON / HAFS-A / HAFS-B / ECMWF / GFS

00 / 35 kt / 35 kt / 35 kt / 35 kt / 30 kt / 30 kt
12 / 50 kt / 40 kt / 40 kt / 45 kt / 35 kt / 45 kt
24 / 55 kt / 50 kt / 50 kt / 60 kt / 40 kt / 50 kt
36 / 65 kt / 60 kt / 60 kt / 65 kt / 45 kt / 55 kt
48 / 80 kt / 65 kt / 60 kt / 65 kt / 50 kt / 60 kt
60 / 90 kt / 90 kt / 70 kt / 70 kt / 65 kt / 80 kt
72 / 110 kt / 120 kt / 100 kt / 100 kt / 80 kt / 100 kt
96 / 120 kt / 125 kt / 130 kt / 125 kt / 105 kt / 110 kt
120 / 115 kt / 140 kt / 150 kt / 150 kt / 125 kt / 115 kt

If you would take the pure average of all these models you would get the following crazy first advisory.

Lee

Hour / Forecast wind speed (kt)

00 / 35 kt
12 / 45 kt
24 / 50 kt
36 / 60 kt
48 / 65 kt
60 / 80 kt
72 / 100 kt
96 / 120 kt
120 / 135 kt

[AutoPenalti]

UKMET seems off… this system is already north of the first forecast point

The euro ensembles also now trending more west. 00z a couple members bending to the west at the end now. 06z even a bit more south very close to the islands. Seems to be seeing a change in the ridging

BLUE - TD#13
RED: UKMET 0z

[Michele B]

UKMET seems off… this system is already north of the first forecast point

The euro ensembles also now trending more west. 00z a couple members bending to the west at the end now. 06z even a bit more south very close to the islands. Seems to be seeing a change in the ridging

https://i.imgur.com/Rtv3JkA.png
BLUE - TD#13
RED: UKMET 0z

NOBODY IN FLORIDA LIKES THIS!

[NotSparta]

UKMET seems off… this system is already north of the first forecast point

The euro ensembles also now trending more west. 00z a couple members bending to the west at the end now. 06z even a bit more south very close to the islands. Seems to be seeing a change in the ridging

https://i.imgur.com/Rtv3JkA.png
BLUE - TD#13
RED: UKMET 0z

Worth noting the UKMET keeps it weak. That's how you'd get a heading like that

[WalterWhite]

The euro ensembles also now trending more west. 00z a couple members bending to the west at the end now. 06z even a bit more south very close to the islands. Seems to be seeing a change in the ridging

https://i.imgur.com/Rtv3JkA.png
BLUE - TD#13
RED: UKMET 0z

NOBODY IN FLORIDA LIKES THIS!

Nobody in Florida, the Bahamas, Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, or the Lesser Antilles likes this.

[AutoPenalti]

The euro ensembles also now trending more west. 00z a couple members bending to the west at the end now. 06z even a bit more south very close to the islands. Seems to be seeing a change in the ridging

https://i.imgur.com/Rtv3JkA.png
BLUE - TD#13
RED: UKMET 0z

Worth noting the UKMET keeps it weak. That's how you'd get a heading like that

Noticed that as well.

[SouthFLTropics]

The euro ensembles also now trending more west. 00z a couple members bending to the west at the end now. 06z even a bit more south very close to the islands. Seems to be seeing a change in the ridging

https://i.imgur.com/Rtv3JkA.png
BLUE - TD#13
RED: UKMET 0z

NOBODY IN FLORIDA LIKES THIS!

Not that I put any stock into the LRC method of forecasting potential storm impacts, but the LRC method has predicted a potential impact time for the east coast of Florida between 9/8 and 9/13. The debate about whether the LRC method actually works and whether it is actually peer reviewed can go on for days. However, it should be noted that it did predict a Florida west coast to panhandle impact during the period of time from late August to early September, and that actually happened. For my sake as well as many others, I hope it is wrong.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z UKMET initialized 190 miles due east of the 11AM (15Z) position. Let's see where the 12Z initializes.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This of an aggressive forecast is rare even in the WPac. We could be seeing the Atlantic's first Cat 5 this year in five days.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/Rtv3JkA.png
BLUE - TD#13
RED: UKMET 0z

NOBODY IN FLORIDA LIKES THIS!

Not that I put any stock into the LRC method of forecasting potential storm impacts, but the LRC method has predicted a potential impact time for the east coast of Florida between 9/8 and 9/13. The debate about whether the LRC method actually works and whether it is actually peer reviewed can go on for days. However, it should be noted that it did predict a Florida west coast to panhandle impact during the period of time from late August to early September, and that actually happened. For my sake as well as many others, I hope it is wrong.

I just don’t know how much credit I can really give it though. Both of these predictions are pretty heavily favored by climatology coupled with the persistent east coast trough we’ve seen over the past few years, right? If so, I just don’t understand what more it adds to the equation

[mantis83]

latest icon is further north of islands than before, some good news

[AutoPenalti]

latest icon is further north of islands than before, some good news

It's actually a touch south than 06z.

[Coolcruiseman]

Perhaps more suited for the discussions thread however for those who are non-meteorologists what is the LRC method?