ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[msbee]

To our members in the Leeward Islands, please read this.

The depression is forecast to become a major hurricane by
this weekend and could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands by that
time. While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude
of these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor
the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast.

Today in 1995, Hurricane Luis hit us dead on.
Tomorrow in 2017, Hurricane Irma hit us dead on.
Incredible destruction from both storms.
To say that people here are watching and worrying about this storm, is an understatement.

[Tireman4]

To our members in the Leeward Islands, please read this.

The depression is forecast to become a major hurricane by
this weekend and could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands by that
time. While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude
of these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor
the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast.

Today in 1995, Hurricane Luis hit us dead on.
Tomorrow in 2017, Hurricane Irma hit us dead on.
Incredible destruction from both storms.
To say that people here are watching and worrying about this storm, is an understatement.

Stay safe, Ms. Bee!!

[crownweather]

Thank you all for posting the official NHC forecasts. And your analyses.
Question….does NHC email these forecasts? I remember I used to be on a mailing list for them. Is this still available?

Check out the mailing lists U Illinois run. They have one where you can have NHC advisories sent right to your e-mail inbox. I've been using it for many, many years.

Link - https://lists.illinois.edu/lists/info/wx-atlan

[Coolcruiseman]

The next week to 10 days or so are going to become very interesting. With a 1st advisory peaking that high praying that it stays away from land.

[Kazmit]

What's the potential ceiling here? I at least feel like this has a solid potential to be the strongest hurricane in the open Atlantic, maybe in the top ten strongest in the entire Atlantic

In theory it could get below 900mb with current SSTs, before passing 65W.

[cycloneye]

To our members in the Leeward Islands, please read this.

The depression is forecast to become a major hurricane by
this weekend and could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands by that
time. While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude
of these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor
the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast.

Today in 1995, Hurricane Luis hit us dead on.
Tomorrow in 2017, Hurricane Irma hit us dead on.
Incredible destruction from both storms.
To say that people here are watching and worrying about this storm, is an understatement.

Take care over there Barbara and Patti and hopefully, Lee does not move closer to the islands than the forecast says. Be safe.

[sunnyday]

South Florida friend said local t v met just said that this storm not only will turn north but was specific in saying it would turn on Sunday morning, thus missing Florida.
Is that a valid statement this far out?

[Craters]

At the start of the season, Lee was one of the names I pegged to be one of the “baddies” of the year (either in intensity or impact). Looks like it could be trending that way. Expecting advisories in an hour.

Okay, Buck -- thanks for your generous honesty. Now we'll know who to blame for this sucker...

[Canelaw99]

Thank you all for posting the official NHC forecasts. And your analyses.
Question….does NHC email these forecasts? I remember I used to be on a mailing list for them. Is this still available?

Not sure if it’s available for you, but I use an app called Hurricane Tracker which gives me the NHC maps, forecasts, etc. (in addition to my s2k amazing peeps, of course!)

[underthwx]

This is a portion from the Bermuda Weather Service 09:00 UTC forecast discussion...

"LONG TERM FORECAST: Friday through Saturday

On Friday, Bermuda is wedged between upper troughing to the west
and upper ridging to the SE and the ridge ultimately dominates on
Saturday as it moves further into the area. A trough moving around
the periphery of the surface high brings cloudy periods and showers
into the area from the southeast on Friday, but the UK model is the
more aggressive of the models showing heavier showers passing overhead.
Saturday as the trough drifts out to the NW conditions brighten and
things become mostly fine. At this time, BDA must set its sight
towards the south as a tropical cyclone develops just N of the Leeward
Islands and has to be monitored for its movement close to the island."

[Dsci4]

What's the potential ceiling here? I at least feel like this has a solid potential to be the strongest hurricane in the open Atlantic, maybe in the top ten strongest in the entire Atlantic

My unprofessional take is this has the potential to be THE strongest of all time in the Atlantic. I think it has earned that right with the 120kt first advisory (which is under consensus)

[WalterWhite]

Thank you all for posting the official NHC forecasts. And your analyses.
Question….does NHC email these forecasts? I remember I used to be on a mailing list for them. Is this still available?

The NHC homepage automatically updates whenever there is an update.

[sunnyday]

Is a recurve definite?

[verruckt]

South Florida friend said local t v met just said that this storm not only will turn north but was specific in saying it would turn on Sunday morning, thus missing Florida.
Is that a valid statement this far out?

Absolutely not. SFL TV Mets have been terrible. Definitely not the same Mets I grew up with down here...

[emeraldislenc]

I think it is too early to say anything is definite! We all need to take a deep breath and see how it plays out! Just my opinion .

[CrazyC83]

I think a lot of PTSD is settling in because of bad memories of storms like Irma and Maria.

There's still plenty of time for things to change - and especially for the US mainland. That said, I think there is a good chance this becomes a category 5 by the weekend.

[Hurricaneman]

Is a recurve definite?

Most likely, it could be a safe recurve or it could be a problem for Atlantic Canada or Long Island/New England maybe even Bermuda so while I think it’s a definite recurve it could still be a dangerous hurricane for any of the above locations and before the recurve the northern lesser Antilles need to monitor this

[USVIKimmie]

Waiting patiently on WXman57 to chime in

[cycloneye]

Wow, organizing fast and IMO, it may be Tropical Storm Lee at 5 PM.

[AubreyStorm]

Good lord

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

I have never seen this wording before

...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...

EDIT: Wait a minute, Category 5 gusts??

Powerful

Please Lord keep Puerto Rico OUT of this monster