ATL: LEE - Models

[mitchell]

Similar to the previous, but if I'm reading this correctly big jump north on the 2nd to last forecast point... and then a huge bend back W at the last forecast point? Interesting?

The 12z GFS seems to have a little short-term westward jog in the path (around 200 hrs into the run) before the recurve resumes

[LarryWx]

-12Z UKMET initialized this at 13.4N, 39.1W vs the Best Track's 12Z of 12.2N, 39.6W. So, the 12Z's initialization is 90 miles NNE of the actual position.

-12Z UKMET is stronger and is at hour 156 ~150 miles ENE of the 0Z's hour 168. At 168, the 12Z is N of the SE Bahamas moving WNW at only 5 mph vs the 0Z being in the SE Bahamas:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 39.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2023 0 13.4N 39.1W 1011 24
0000UTC 06.09.2023 12 13.8N 42.0W 1009 25
1200UTC 06.09.2023 24 14.2N 44.7W 1007 31
0000UTC 07.09.2023 36 15.3N 46.7W 1007 34
1200UTC 07.09.2023 48 16.4N 49.0W 1006 35
0000UTC 08.09.2023 60 17.5N 52.0W 1006 31
1200UTC 08.09.2023 72 18.5N 55.1W 1007 32
0000UTC 09.09.2023 84 19.4N 58.4W 1006 30
1200UTC 09.09.2023 96 19.9N 61.2W 1005 39
0000UTC 10.09.2023 108 20.6N 63.6W 1003 46
1200UTC 10.09.2023 120 21.4N 66.5W 1002 50
0000UTC 11.09.2023 132 21.9N 68.6W 998 52
1200UTC 11.09.2023 144 22.4N 70.2W 998 50
0000UTC 12.09.2023 156 23.9N 71.0W 996 60
1200UTC 12.09.2023 168 24.2N 72.0W 996 46

Overall this jumped north because of intensity.

I don't think that's the only reason because earlier in the run while of similar intensity to the 0Z, the 12Z was already ENE of the 0Z run. I think it has more to do with a too far NE initialization. The 0Z had this at hour 24 (0Z tonight) at 13.3N, 41.7W. The new run (12Z) has this up to 13.8N (and 42.0W) at 0Z tonight. The actual 15Z position per the NHC is only up at 12.5N. On its current heading, it will be only up to ~13.4N at 0Z tonight.

[verruckt]

gfs threads the needle between bermuda and the east coast, moving north before beginning to recurve away

Watch the pattern, not the storm track, this far out. Whether this run ultimately landfalls or not is irrelevant. Not the kind of pattern you want to see in future runs for safe recurve.

Yep, and that pattern is trending west... for now.

We will need recon / more data into the models.

[LarryWx]

Even with the 12Z UKMET being 150 miles ENE of its 0Z run at the end, it is still a whopping 350 miles WSW of the 12Z GFS at 168.

[CrazyC83]

I think we need to get the G-IV out into the western Atlantic and more weather balloons starting right away. That way we can diagnose that first trough better that starts the recurve. That will be key for the islands and make the difference between a pass to the north and a direct hit.

[SouthFLTropics]

Even with the 12Z UKMET being 150 miles ENE of its 0Z run at the end, it is still a whopping 350 miles WSW of the 12Z GFS at 168.

That's a significant difference at that time range. ICON is slowly coming in on Tropical Tidbits but at hour 153 it is crawling WNW north of the big islands. I'll be very interested in seeing what the Euro does this afternoon. It is hard to put much confidence in the GFS after its recent whiff with Idalia.

[SFLcane]

Even with the 12Z UKMET being 150 miles ENE of its 0Z run at the end, it is still a whopping 350 miles WSW of the 12Z GFS at 168.

So how far sw is this?

[SFLcane]

12z ICON should recurve easliy huge trof parked over the eastcoast.

[AutoPenalti]

Even with the 12Z UKMET being 150 miles ENE of its 0Z run at the end, it is still a whopping 350 miles WSW of the 12Z GFS at 168.

So how far sw is this?

Red is 0z
Black is 12z
Blue is best track.

[SFLcane]

Even with the 12Z UKMET being 150 miles ENE of its 0Z run at the end, it is still a whopping 350 miles WSW of the 12Z GFS at 168.

So how far sw is this?

Red is 0z
Black is 12z
Blue is best track.
https://i.imgur.com/MlblOUn.png

How does the upper pattern look on the ukmet across the southeast? Probably either to weak or wont get that more west after that

[PavelGaborik10]

Even with the 12Z UKMET being 150 miles ENE of its 0Z run at the end, it is still a whopping 350 miles WSW of the 12Z GFS at 168.

That's a significant difference at that time range. ICON is slowly coming in on Tropical Tidbits but at hour 153 it is crawling WNW north of the big islands. I'll be very interested in seeing what the Euro does this afternoon. It is hard to put much confidence in the GFS after its recent whiff with Idalia.

The GFS has been awful with Genesis all season long, however it did a much better job with Franklin in Canadian waters than the Euro, and it did quite well regarding the final landfall spot for Idalia in the big Bend while the Euro was consistently far too E.

[aspen]

Lee doesn’t really start taking off until late Thursday to early Friday on the hurricane models. Recon is scheduled to arrive late Thursday night, so it’ll likely catch Lee starting to RI.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z ICON should recurve easliy huge trof parked over the eastcoast.

You would think that would be the case, but at hour 180 it is still camped out east of the SE Bahamas and crawling along. Very strong also... 934MB. Think that's about the lowest I've ever seen on the ICON.

[Iceresistance]

12z ICON should recurve easliy huge trof parked over the eastcoast.

You would think that would be the case, but at hour 180 it is still camped out east of the SE Bahamas and crawling along. Very strong also... 934MB. Think that's about the lowest I've ever seen on the ICON.

Caught a 933 mb reading on the 12z ICON


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgA9V.png

[LarryWx]

So how far sw is this?

Red is 0z
Black is 12z
Blue is best track.
https://i.imgur.com/MlblOUn.png

How does the upper pattern look on the ukmet across the southeast? Probably either to weak or wont get that more west after that

Probably but those maps won't be out for awhile.

[SFLcane]

12z ICON should recurve easliy huge trof parked over the eastcoast.

You would think that would be the case, but at hour 180 it is still camped out east of the SE Bahamas and crawling along. Very strong also... 934MB. Think that's about the lowest I've ever seen on the ICON.

Its been the same pattern all year ridge, trof ,ridge.

[aspen]

12z HAFS-A/B show an EWRC starting either late Saturday or early Sunday. The HAFS-B has an insane 155 kt/908 mbar peak right as the EWRC starts.

[SFLcane]

12z ICON should recurve easliy huge trof parked over the eastcoast.

You would think that would be the case, but at hour 180 it is still camped out east of the SE Bahamas and crawling along. Very strong also... 934MB. Think that's about the lowest I've ever seen on the ICON.

Caught a 933 mb reading on the 12z ICON

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgA9V.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgA9V.png

Thankfully heading NW at the end there.

[mantis83]

12z ICON should recurve easliy huge trof parked over the eastcoast.

You would think that would be the case, but at hour 180 it is still camped out east of the SE Bahamas and crawling along. Very strong also... 934MB. Think that's about the lowest I've ever seen on the ICON.

Its been the same pattern all year ridge, trof ,ridge.

https://i.postimg.cc/XJ7HKxPx/kkkk.jpg

which is why a relatively safe recurve is still the preferred outcome based on the models, not carved in stone yet

[Spacecoast]

12z Guidance: Most cross 60W at, (or slightly above) 20N, except maybe Interpolated HWRF.