ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm going 140 knots at peak for Lee. Feels crazy to call for a storm to go Cat 5 this far out, but the conditions ahead of it are that good... we know from Irma and Maria storms can get that strong with the right conditions in that region of the Atlantic.

[Beef Stew]

I don't often invoke this storm for comparison, but Lee is really reminding me of Irma, in terms of structure and projected evolution (not track). It's not often you see a storm in its early stages that you just know is (very likely) going to be a monster.

[hipshot]

I don't often invoke this storm for comparison, but Lee is really reminding me of Irma, in terms of structure and projected evolution (not track). It's not often you see a storm in its early stages that you just know is (very likely) going to be a monster.

I'm a little surprised that we don't have more posts on this board because this storm could get real ugly, real soon.

[IcyTundra]

I don't often invoke this storm for comparison, but Lee is really reminding me of Irma, in terms of structure and projected evolution (not track). It's not often you see a storm in its early stages that you just know is (very likely) going to be a monster.

I'm a little surprised that we don't have more posts on this board because this storm could get real ugly, real soon.

You need the models to show a CONUS landfall to get really active threads. Still there are some OTS storms like Sam that can get a high page count.

[Iceresistance]

It looks like there is a big band developing in front of Lee, it may limit it for a while like what it did to Larry 2021.

[weeniepatrol]

[Abdullah]

For a tropical cyclone to reach category-5 intensity in the Atlantic, you need a very rare combination of ingredients: Very warm waters (and over a deep enough layer), low shear, a sufficiently moist air mass, as well as a vortex structure that is not overly broad. And you need all of these conditions.

Having said that, I would be surprised if this storm does not eventually attain category-5 intensity at some point in its life time. I'm really hoping the models are right that the core of the storm misses the Antilles, because this will be one very powerful TC.

Why is this necessarily the case? Are there limiting factors within the ocean itself (just not enough raw power existing?) or is there something else about small storms or pinhole eyes?

[Abdullah]

If Lee reaches some record-breaking intensity but steers clear of land, could it still be retired? It would seem a little inappropriate for a potentially sub-910 storm's name to be reused in later years regardless of what it does

Tip was not retired despite being the most intense (by minimum central pressure) tropical cyclone on record. Lee would have to cause major damage in order to be retired.

Yeah, the reason that storms themselves get retired since they are well-known to people, and that comes only if it causes a lot of damage.

Lee being the strongest storm up to a certain point would only be a mild curiosity for most people. They would react to it the same way you react when you hear that some of the hottest temperatures on Earth were recorded in Kuwait, or in California. It's just an interesting fact that you can store in your head.

That's very different then say, Tropical Storm Allison, which although it was objectively a weak system, there are many people that will never forget its name because of what they saw. Lee, hopefully, will not be having that affect on anyone the same way nobody shivers when they hear about Hurricane Lorenzo, which was the easternmost Category Five on record.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Lee
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIbE1G22en8

[ElectricStorm]

Honestly the only thing I can see that could hold this back is if it develops a structure prone to EWRC's but I think the chances of that happening are low. I don't really see any other reason why this won't at the very least reach 130kts+ and likely higher than that.

I could end up being very wrong but I'm going with 150kts/912mb peak for Lee. Feels weird saying that for an Atlantic storm this far out but the potential is certainly there

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1699204361778524415

[USTropics]

For a tropical cyclone to reach category-5 intensity in the Atlantic, you need a very rare combination of ingredients: Very warm waters (and over a deep enough layer), low shear, a sufficiently moist air mass, as well as a vortex structure that is not overly broad. And you need all of these conditions.

Having said that, I would be surprised if this storm does not eventually attain category-5 intensity at some point in its life time. I'm really hoping the models are right that the core of the storm misses the Antilles, because this will be one very powerful TC.

Why is this necessarily the case? Are there limiting factors within the ocean itself (just not enough raw power existing?) or is there something else about small storms or pinhole eyes?

Regarding limiting factors within the ocean itself, it's not necessarily about the ocean lacking raw power but rather about the specific environmental conditions/organizational structure that enable a storm to tap into that power. You could break down the vortex structure into 3 components:

Organization: The organization of a tropical cyclone refers to how well-defined and orderly its various components/levels are. A well-organized storm has a clear and discernible structure, with distinct features such as an eye, eyewall, and rainbands. When these components are well-organized, it indicates that the storm is efficiently drawing in warm, moist air from the ocean and expelling it at high altitudes. This is where the ocean plays the biggest role, in this process (i.e., the fuel that's needed for the release of latent heat and deep convection)

Symmetry: Symmetry in the context of a tropical cyclone refers to the balanced distribution of its features around its center. A symmetrical storm typically has a circular or nearly circular shape when viewed from satellite (i.e., Central Dense Overcast or CDO). We need a symmetric eyewall, with roughly equal intensification around its entire circumference. Symmetry indicates that the storm's inner core is well-structured and that it can maintain a stable circulation.

Compactness: This is the last critical component, as a compact tropical cyclone has a relatively small and concentrated core, including the eye and eyewall. In contrast, a broad storm has a larger and less concentrated core. Compactness is desirable for intensification because it allows the storm to focus its energy and maintain a strong, well-defined circulation. In a compact storm, the eyewall is closer to the center, and this proximity allows for more efficient heat transfer and energy exchange with the atmosphere.

This all leads to intensification, where a well-organized, symmetrical, and compact storm is better at efficiently transferring heat from the warm ocean waters to the upper levels of the atmosphere. This heat transfer is crucial for maintaining the storm's warm core, which is a hallmark of a strong tropical cyclone. Symmetry and organization help stabilize the storm's circulation, with a stable circulation allowing the storm to maintain its core structure and resist disruptions from factors like wind shear. A compact storm concentrates the available energy into a smaller area, which can lead to rapid intensification. In contrast, a broad storm may spread its energy over a larger region, making it less efficient at intensifying (i.e., the hurricane force wind field extends over a much larger wind field radius, but the center of the storm does not exhibit category 4/5 force winds due to the broader nature of the circulation).

[IsabelaWeather]

Hard to tell from IR, but I dont really see much, if any, northward movement.

https://imgur.com/a/ZiMlhec

NHC says WNW @ 290* but I am not so sure.

[SconnieCane]

Hard to tell from IR, but I dont really see much, if any, northward movement.

https://imgur.com/a/ZiMlhec

NHC says WNW @ 290* but I am not so sure.

When I click that link it says "This post may contain erotic or adult imagery. By continuing, you acknowledge that you are 18+ years of age."

Not sure if imgur just puts that disclaimer on everything now, or if they've read enough of Josh Morgerman's descriptions of tropical cyclones.

[AnnularCane]

Hard to tell from IR, but I dont really see much, if any, northward movement.

https://imgur.com/a/ZiMlhec

NHC says WNW @ 290* but I am not so sure.

When I click that link it says "This post may contain erotic or adult imagery. By continuing, you acknowledge that you are 18+ years of age."

Not sure if imgur just puts that disclaimer on everything now, or if they've read enough of Josh Morgerman's descriptions of tropical cyclones.

Well, Lee IS looking kind of sexy...

[IsabelaWeather]

Hard to tell from IR, but I dont really see much, if any, northward movement.

https://imgur.com/a/ZiMlhec

NHC says WNW @ 290* but I am not so sure.

When I click that link it says "This post may contain erotic or adult imagery. By continuing, you acknowledge that you are 18+ years of age."

Not sure if imgur just puts that disclaimer on everything now, or if they've read enough of Josh Morgerman's descriptions of tropical cyclones.

That is interesting, how can I get GIFs to show up like other people do it?

[Iceresistance]

Hard to tell from IR, but I dont really see much, if any, northward movement.

https://imgur.com/a/ZiMlhec

NHC says WNW @ 290* but I am not so sure.

When I click that link it says "This post may contain erotic or adult imagery. By continuing, you acknowledge that you are 18+ years of age."

Not sure if imgur just puts that disclaimer on everything now, or if they've read enough of Josh Morgerman's descriptions of tropical cyclones.

(Sorry for being OT)

My HS did the same thing to Imgur, so annoyed.

[aspen]

It looks like there is a big band developing in front of Lee, it may limit it for a while like what it did to Larry 2021.

The hurricane models have shown this being an issue until Thursday, when this band-dominated structure changes and an eyewall rapidly develops, sparking a significant RI phase Thursday night into Friday.

[weeniepatrol]

Hard to tell from IR, but I dont really see much, if any, northward movement.

https://imgur.com/a/ZiMlhec

NHC says WNW @ 290* but I am not so sure.

When I click that link it says "This post may contain erotic or adult imagery. By continuing, you acknowledge that you are 18+ years of age."

Not sure if imgur just puts that disclaimer on everything now, or if they've read enough of Josh Morgerman's descriptions of tropical cyclones.

That is interesting, how can I get GIFs to show up like other people do it?

Immediately after uploading on imgur, click "copy link" and paste into your s2k post. Add the [imgur] tag.



This should be the format:




Result:

[cycloneye]

It looks like there is a big band developing in front of Lee, it may limit it for a while like what it did to Larry 2021.

The hurricane models have shown this being an issue until Thursday, when this band-dominated structure changes and an eyewall rapidly develops, sparking a significant RI phase Thursday night into Friday.

Thev timeframe when recon will fly the first mission at 7:30 PM, and for sure, it will be a most watched mission.