ATL: LEE - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

Wow check out the GEFS left behind.

https://i.ibb.co/X4X4XCY/46ec165b-b8dd-4587-bcfa-47621414b8d4.gif

https://i.ibb.co/FV7b24c/916d47c9-ac1c-4232-9f26-d73aadccd449.gif

Most still miss, but there is clearly a new camp here that shows Lee missing the initial weakness. It's important to focus on the trend instead of the exact tracks depicted here.

[Owasso]

If this verified

[Ianswfl]

Wow check out the GEFS left behind.

https://i.ibb.co/X4X4XCY/46ec165b-b8dd-4587-bcfa-47621414b8d4.gif

https://i.ibb.co/FV7b24c/916d47c9-ac1c-4232-9f26-d73aadccd449.gif

Most still miss, but there is clearly a new camp here that shows Lee missing the initial weakness. It's important to focus on the trend instead of the exact tracks depicted here.

One of those members is bringing a 949mb hurricane same track as Matthew then towards the GA coast. Note it also has cat3 super low rider coming into the Carribean. Ivan like??

[TheDreamTraveler]

I won't take my eyes off of this thing until it is safely headed away into the North Atlantic. I've see this movie too many times and didn't like the ending. I'm not surprised at all by the split camp in the 18z GEFS. I suspect we haven't seen the last of this. I think the UKMET has been sniffing out a pattern change coming all along. Odds still favor it to head up and out, but at this point nothing is off of the table.

Honestly wouldn't be the first time I've seen the UKMET sniff out something that the GFS and Euro were both missing.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I won't take my eyes off of this thing until it is safely headed away into the North Atlantic. I've see this movie too many times and didn't like the ending. I'm not surprised at all by the split camp in the 18z GEFS. I suspect we haven't seen the last of this. I think the UKMET has been sniffing out a pattern change coming all along. Odds still favor it to head up and out, but at this point nothing is off of the table.

Honestly wouldn't be the first time I've seen the UKMET sniff out something that the GFS and Euro were both missing.

I mean, obviously the most likely scenario is a recurve, but sounding all clears 8 days out was wild. The GEFS and GEPS having 2 camps 8 days out shows that this is far from over.

[blp]

I won't take my eyes off of this thing until it is safely headed away into the North Atlantic. I've see this movie too many times and didn't like the ending. I'm not surprised at all by the split camp in the 18z GEFS. I suspect we haven't seen the last of this. I think the UKMET has been sniffing out a pattern change coming all along. Odds still favor it to head up and out, but at this point nothing is off of the table.

Honestly wouldn't be the first time I've seen the UKMET sniff out something that the GFS and Euro were both missing.

Agree, Irma comes to mind was the first one going into the Eastern Gulf kept being the western outlier when the Euro and GFS had SE Fla in it's sights. Also with Ian showed the more eastern outlier missing Tampa to the south before the others. It might not get it right in the end but it does pick up on trends very well.

[Category5Kaiju]

I won't take my eyes off of this thing until it is safely headed away into the North Atlantic. I've see this movie too many times and didn't like the ending. I'm not surprised at all by the split camp in the 18z GEFS. I suspect we haven't seen the last of this. I think the UKMET has been sniffing out a pattern change coming all along. Odds still favor it to head up and out, but at this point nothing is off of the table.

Honestly wouldn't be the first time I've seen the UKMET sniff out something that the GFS and Euro were both missing.

I could be very wrong with this, but didn't the UKMET nail the landfall location of Ian last year?

[AxaltaRacing24]

I won't take my eyes off of this thing until it is safely headed away into the North Atlantic. I've see this movie too many times and didn't like the ending. I'm not surprised at all by the split camp in the 18z GEFS. I suspect we haven't seen the last of this. I think the UKMET has been sniffing out a pattern change coming all along. Odds still favor it to head up and out, but at this point nothing is off of the table.

Honestly wouldn't be the first time I've seen the UKMET sniff out something that the GFS and Euro were both missing.

Agree, Irma comes to mind was the first one going into the Eastern Gulf kept being the western outlier when the Euro and GFS had SE Fla in it's sights. Also with Ian showed the more eastern outlier missing Tampa to the south before the others. It might not get it right in the end but it does pick up on trends very well.

It was 300+ Miles SW this morning, and 12 hours later, the ensembles are showing a camp that does exactly that. So it's something to take note of.

[Spacecoast]

18z GEFS:

[SFLcane]

Wow check out the GEFS left behind.

https://i.ibb.co/X4X4XCY/46ec165b-b8dd-4587-bcfa-47621414b8d4.gif

https://i.ibb.co/FV7b24c/916d47c9-ac1c-4232-9f26-d73aadccd449.gif

That batch still recurves but worth watching if it’s the start of some trend maybe.

[SconnieCane]

The 18Z HAFS-B depicts the cyclone becoming not only very intense, but also extremely large through the course of multiple EWRCs as was seen with Irma.

HWRF is interesting, multiple runs now for this system have depicted a large eye with minimal banding, approaching (but not quite meeting, IMO) "A-word" criteria.

[Ianswfl]

Wow check out the GEFS left behind.

https://i.ibb.co/X4X4XCY/46ec165b-b8dd-4587-bcfa-47621414b8d4.gif

https://i.ibb.co/FV7b24c/916d47c9-ac1c-4232-9f26-d73aadccd449.gif

That batch still recurves but worth watching if it’s the start of some trend maybe.

One member has a Matthew like track. Even for Florida I wouldn't discount this yet. Slower movement and some more stronger ridging and we could be in play. GFS Ensembles kinda trying to pull a Georges 2.0 over the DR and Cuba. Run ends there. A couple more model cycles and might have more ensemble members into Florida if they keep shifting at this rate.

[LarryWx]

I won't take my eyes off of this thing until it is safely headed away into the North Atlantic. I've see this movie too many times and didn't like the ending. I'm not surprised at all by the split camp in the 18z GEFS. I suspect we haven't seen the last of this. I think the UKMET has been sniffing out a pattern change coming all along. Odds still favor it to head up and out, but at this point nothing is off of the table.

Honestly wouldn't be the first time I've seen the UKMET sniff out something that the GFS and Euro were both missing.

I could be very wrong with this, but didn't the UKMET nail the landfall location of Ian last year?

Yes it did for both FL and SC landfalls. And it did better than the GFS and CMC for Idalia's FL landfall.

[gatorcane]

Most models recurve (future powerful) Lee over the SW Atlantic. As far as 2017 and Irma which I see referenced in this thread, models clearly underestimated the ridge that year but then again that was a year with a very strong Bermuda High feature. Even so around day 10 the Euro was the first model to sniff out the big ridge showing Irma very near the Florida Keys (remarkable how accurate it was). This year the Bermuda High has been on the weak or non-existent side so would be surprised if models start to show some massive ridge at this point to drive Lee westward all the way to Florida. You can thank El Niño for that.

[Category5Kaiju]

Most models recurve (future powerful) Lee over the SW Atlantic. As far as 2017 and Irma which I see referenced in this thread, models clearly underestimated the ridge that year but then again that was a year with a very strong Bermuda High feature. Even so around day 10 the Euro was the first model to sniff out the big ridge showing Irma very near the Florida Keys (remarkable how accurate it was). This year the Bermuda High has been on the weak or non-existent side so would be surprised if models start to show some massive ridge at this point to drive Lee westward all the way to Florida. You can thank El Niño for that.

Then for 2018, which was also an El Nino year, was it just a freak occurrence that Florence went all the way from the Cape Verde Islands to North Carolina without recurving on out to sea? Or in 1965, which was another moderate El Nino year, Betsy looping and hitting Florida and Louisiana?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Here is a short term trend to watch. Both the GFS and Euro have Lee gain over a degree in latitude in the next 24 hours. Lets see if that verifies because if anything, the center looks like it is forming south of where they initialize

[Ianswfl]

Most models recurve (future powerful) Lee over the SW Atlantic. As far as 2017 and Irma which I see referenced in this thread, models clearly underestimated the ridge that year but then again that was a year with a very strong Bermuda High feature. Even so around day 10 the Euro was the first model to sniff out the big ridge showing Irma very near the Florida Keys (remarkable how accurate it was). This year the Bermuda High has been on the weak or non-existent side so would be surprised if models start to show some massive ridge at this point to drive Lee westward all the way to Florida. You can thank El Niño for that.

The UKmet also snuffed out Irma's dive over Cuba too first I recall. Saved from a large, strong cat4 from going up the spine of FL and give SEFl and SWFL major hurricane force winds. I remember those whacky 892mb hurricanes the GFS and Euro were striking Miami with during Irma.

[chris_fit]

Eyeballing 18z EPS... More South at 100+hrs

[Ianswfl]

Eyeballing 18z EPS... More South at 100+hrs

Yep. Quite a bit more south. Hard to tell but a bit more of them look to have a wnw bend to them at the end of it. Those southern members from 12z now take it over the middle of Hispaniola, Georges like! Find it odd we are seeing a couple members taking it over the shredder now. Like I said seems like a major pattern change happening. I wouldn't discount it in Florida just yet.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0518&fh=75

[Emmett_Brown]

Eyeballing 18z EPS... More South at 100+hrs

I don't have an image to post, but interesting that the stronger members seems to be on the left side of the member consensus swath during the first 72 hours.