ATL: MARGOT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 96, 2023090512, , BEST, 0, 97N, 177W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, SPAWNINVEST, al722023 to al962023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal962023.dat

[kevin]

Well here's the second soon to be CV (major) hurricane in the making. ACE is gonna like this, it's gonna be a busy few weeks.

[zzzh]

Well defined low level center. September waves

[ElectricStorm]

Good chance for a hurricane here I would think. A nice OTS big ACE producer would be nice

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A broad low pressure system associated with a strong tropical wave
off the coast of West Africa, is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form over the
far eastern tropical Atlantic during the middle to latter part of
the week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
This system is expected to move across the Cabo Verde Islands
Wednesday night and Thursday, and interests there should monitor its
progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A broad low pressure system located several hundred miles southeast
of the Cabo Verde Islands and a nearby tropical wave are producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form later this week or this
weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to move
across the Cabo Verde Islands Wednesday night and Thursday, and
interests there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[AnnularCane]

????? 96L isn't looking half bad, why did they drop the 7-day percentage?

[aspen]

????? 96L isn't looking half bad, why did they drop the 7-day percentage?

Because model support really dropped today. The Euro barely develops it now.

[AnnularCane]

????? 96L isn't looking half bad, why did they drop the 7-day percentage?

Because model support really dropped today. The Euro barely develops it now.

[WalterWhite]

????? 96L isn't looking half bad, why did they drop the 7-day percentage?

Because model support really dropped today. The Euro barely develops it now.

96L still has good ensemble support, though.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks pretty good right now, I'm also surprised they dropped the odds. Maybe they think outflow from Lee will kill it off?

[zzzh]

This is 30/60?
NHC is sometimes too model dependent

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the west coast of Africa. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form later this week or this
weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to move
across the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight, and interests
there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the west coast of Africa. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form later this week or this
weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to move
across the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight, and interests there
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far
eastern Atlantic, which are beginning to spread over the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while moving toward the west-northwest at about
15 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The low is
expected to move across the Cabo Verde Islands overnight and early
Thursday, and interests there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.