ATL: LEE - Models

[Iceresistance]

Found a Sub-900 member on the 0z Euro-Ensembles


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgytU.png

[capepoint]

Always heard that very strong hurricanes can create their own environment. Knowing how stronger storms want to go poleward, I would think that a very strong Lee might could push further north through a little weakness that a weaker storm could not. Do models take that type situation into account?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Always heard that very strong hurricanes can create their own environment. Knowing how stronger storms want to go poleward, I would think that a very strong Lee might could push further north through a little weakness that a weaker storm could not. Do models take that type situation into account?

When people say "create their own environment", they are talking about being more resistant to shear, and local environments that would hamper a weaker system, not necessarily movement. A stronger storm is steered more from the upper levels than a weak storm. If the upper levels are moving poleward, it will feel that. The opposite is also true. Think about it like a cork in a stream. Where the stream is located matters to the strength, but the cork will follow the stream.

[Meteorcane]

Interesting looking at the day 8 ensemble clusters (https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wpc_ensemble_clusters/day_8_10/view.php) the GEFS/GEPS members are highly favoring a more progressive trough, less amplified eastern Canadian/NW Atlantic ridge pattern (clusters 1 and 2) while the EPS favors a less progressive trough and more amplified downstream ridge (clusters 3 and 4). The GEPS/GEFS consensus would favor more rapid northward movement, and potentially a quicker recurve (more of a Bermuda/Newfoundland, eastern Nova Scotia threat), while the EPS consensus favors a greater risk to western Atlantic Canada and the NE CONUS. The interesting thing is just about 36 hours ago it was the GEFS camp that favored the solution the EPS currently supports.

[RevanTheJedi96]

a safe recurve is looking more and more likely as we get closer in time.....

Still too much uncertainty in the long term to feel too safe about Bermuda, Atlantic Canada, and the NE US. I still wouldn't necessarily say there is no threat for the Turks and Caicos and eastern Bahamas either... only takes a somewhat stronger ridge.

If anything, the risk to Bermuda is increasing. But the risk to the NE US, after a bit of a concern largely based on the far left UKMET, has dropped somewhat from how it looked earlier. Hopefully future UKMETs will not go back as far left as they were. However, I'm still maintaining a small risk of landfall to the NE US because we're still 9 or so days out...too long to give an all clear.

Well if Larry Wx says the Northeast is safe, it must be!

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Found a Sub-900 member on the 0z Euro-Ensembles

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgytU.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgytU.png

That is bumping up against the limit of what is possible in the open Atlantic.

[chris_fit]

GFS Trend.

What's with that ridge popping up to the W of it? Florida/Bahamas Deflector Shield?

[AutoPenalti]

GFS Trend.

What's with that ridge popping up to the W of it? Florida/Bahamas Deflector Shield?

https://i.imgur.com/ADXzgIF.gif

Yes.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Interesting looking at the day 8 ensemble clusters (https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wpc_ensemble_clusters/day_8_10/view.php) the GEFS/GEPS members are highly favoring a more progressive trough, less amplified eastern Canadian/NW Atlantic ridge pattern (clusters 1 and 2) while the EPS favors a less progressive trough and more amplified downstream ridge (clusters 3 and 4). The GEPS/GEFS consensus would favor more rapid northward movement, and potentially a quicker recurve (more of a Bermuda/Newfoundland, eastern Nova Scotia threat), while the EPS consensus favors a greater risk to western Atlantic Canada and the NE CONUS. The interesting thing is just about 36 hours ago it was the GEFS camp that favored the solution the EPS currently supports.

https://i.imgur.com/yLeAaqU.png

That makes me think of Eric Webb's tweet that was posted saying WPAC systems were going to cause more amplification downstream over the US

[PavelGaborik10]

We may be tracking Lee into October if the models continue the trend of being slower with him.

It feels like he's been 10-11 days out from potential impacts for days now and now the GFS is coming in even slower lol

[Blown Away]

We may be tracking Lee into October if the models continue the trend of being slower with him.

It feels like he's been 10-11 days out from potential impacts for days now and now the GFS is coming in even slower lol

Trending slower...

[Iceresistance]

We may be tracking Lee into October if the models continue the trend of being slower with him.

It feels like he's been 10-11 days out from potential impacts for days now and now the GFS is coming in even slower lol

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/5NZd2TFF/434dca21-063c-4d28-a7f2-d9462929e751.gif [/url]

Trending slower...

I really don't like that, it could go from an East Coast Threat to a Southeastern Threat if these trends continue.

[PavelGaborik10]

We may be tracking Lee into October if the models continue the trend of being slower with him.

It feels like he's been 10-11 days out from potential impacts for days now and now the GFS is coming in even slower lol

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/5NZd2TFF/434dca21-063c-4d28-a7f2-d9462929e751.gif [/url]

Trending slower...

Going to be one hell of an ACE producer.

[Meteorcane]

GFS with the classic "two eyes and a nose" look in the Northern Atlantic late in the period with Lee, Margot, and the very weak high pressure that separates them

[mitchell]

My wife and I have plans to spend time in Cape Cod next week, so been paying close attention. The 12z GFS run has a bit more sharp recurve once north of Bermuda, and is the furthest away from New England of any run I can recall. Not saying its a trend, but a few runs ago it was a lot closer to SENE and the forward direction was more northward. This also the first run I've seen where the center does not landfall in either New England or Nova Scotia.

[TheBigO]

Found a Sub-900 member on the 0z Euro-Ensembles

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgytU.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgytU.png

That is bumping up against the limit of what is possible in the open Atlantic.

What’s a good resource to read up on the theoretical limit of what’s possible in the open Atlantic?

[GCANE]

GFS is developing the storm to Lee's east more strongly.
The Fuji effect will give a SE tug on Lee making it look like Lee is slowing down.

[Ianswfl]

We may be tracking Lee into October if the models continue the trend of being slower with him.

It feels like he's been 10-11 days out from potential impacts for days now and now the GFS is coming in even slower lol

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/5NZd2TFF/434dca21-063c-4d28-a7f2-d9462929e751.gif [/url]

Trending slower...

I really don't like that, it could go from an East Coast Threat to a Southeastern Threat if these trends continue.

Why do you say a southeast threat?

[Iceresistance]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/5NZd2TFF/434dca21-063c-4d28-a7f2-d9462929e751.gif [/url]

Trending slower...

I really don't like that, it could go from an East Coast Threat to a Southeastern Threat if these trends continue.

Why do you say a southeast threat?

I think I meant to say "Southeast area of the east coast"

[Ianswfl]

I really don't like that, it could go from an East Coast Threat to a Southeastern Threat if these trends continue.

Why do you say a southeast threat?

I think I meant to say "Southeast area of the east coast"

Still, why do you think it would be a SE coast threat like FL, GA, or SC with the model trends?