EPAC: JOVA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Holy crap

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.8 7.0

At this point, I think a category 5 peak is likely, and possibly in the top 5 for EPAC storms if the eye warms up nicely.

[aspen]

115 kt is a gross underestimate. This is at least 125-130 kt and is likely on pace to become a Cat 5. However, since ADT and manual Dvorak fixes have been so bad with tiny eyes this year, the odds of an operational Cat 5 are slim to none IMO.

[SconnieCane]

Assuming Lee takes off soon, this could be one of the most notable instances in documented history of very high-end hurricanes occurring in the EPAC and NATL simultaneously. Certainly in the satellite era.

[cheezyWXguy]

If I didn’t know better, just looking at it right now I’d think this was a 5 now that the eye has cleared out. In reality it’s probably a mid-upper 4 as the winds are probably playing catch up. Either way, 115kt is probably a pretty lowball estimate

[Ntxw]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2023 Time : 204020 UTC
Lat : 14:53:59 N Lon : 111:44:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 969.1mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.8 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -2.4C Cloud Region Temp : -76.1C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

Eye reached WMG a bit ago. We’re probably down >30 mbar since 12z atp.

[WiscoWx02]

Based on satellite imagery as of this afternoon, I'd say this is a category 5 hurricane. The current satellite presentation is only seen with histories strongest tropical cyclones, with a ridiculously cold, concentric and solid CDO and a pinhole eye. I doubt the NHC will ever designate it as a cat. 5 though, they'll probably cap it off at 150- 155 mph and leave it there. I never expect a cat 5 designation until it is given.

[hurricanes1234]

Retouched this image by upping the clarity and reducing the exposure a bit and WOW.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1699524831505518631

[ElectricStorm]

I expected a Cat 4, but I certainly never expected this. Would not be surprised if this reaches 155kts+ at this rate, though I doubt NHC will go that high.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2023 Time : 211020 UTC
Lat : 14:56:59 N Lon : 111:49:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 965.4mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.8 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +10.0C Cloud Region Temp : -77.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 80nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES18
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.8 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

I'll think will be solidly >=140 once the eye reaches a fully cleared >15C or so. We are on there yet but could get there during the next 2-3 hours.

[Beef Stew]

Jova's presentation is just fantastic. I suspect it's probably nearing category 5 intensity at the moment as winds catch up to structure, and will exceed it soon- I could see a peak of 145-150 kts at this rate, although it will never be designated operationally.

[TorSkk]

Jova may even deserve a special advisory. Solid DT 7.0, and soon 7.5 with the eye clearing

[Yellow Evan]

Eye warmest it has been yet. Solid T7.0 and would be 7.5 with CMG embedded which it almost has.

[Sciencerocks]

130knots

[Ntxw]

This is what Hilary should've been. Jova is worthy of a C5. Large envelope and intense core. Lee has a shot at c5 too, with more time over warm water, but it may not get tops uniformly cold as this.

[Teban54]

Genuine question: Given that Raw ADT is shooting up but the adjusted, constrained values are lagging, is it possible that we're looking at an Eta situation?

IIRC, Eta's raw T got up to 8.3 while final T stayed below 7. Before the underwhelming recon went in, people were saying the exact same thing as this - that the constraints are to ensure storms don't intensify too fast, which didn't apply to ERI phases like Eta. However, recon found Eta to be just a 130 kt Cat 4, in line with the final T.

[Yellow Evan]

Eta had a colder eye and its cold cloud tops were a biproduct of the cold season tropopause to much extent. Not applicable here.

[Yellow Evan]

This is getting close to top tier EPAC TC.