EPAC: JOVA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[zhukm29]

Don't mind me, just saving some Jova loops for posterity.

[weeniepatrol]

Can somebody explain why TAFB is using constraints to yield a T6.5?

[Cyclenall]

https://i.ibb.co/VCydZD1/goes18-ir-11-E-202309062035.gif

The way the loop speed is set and Jova's CDO spin ferocity makes it look like its vibrating! About 3 hours ago Jova's satellite appearance reminded me of Linda 97 and that a smaller cane was in a giant cradle of bands.

ERC looming but we can probably hold off for a few more hours.

That scan confuses me, is that tiny dot the eye? It wasn't that pinhole-small at 0z. The inner CDO doesn't even look right.

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://i.ibb.co/VCydZD1/goes18-ir-11-E-202309062035.gif

The way the loop speed is set and Jova's CDO spin ferocity makes it look like its vibrating! About 3 hours ago Jova's satellite appearance reminded me of Linda 97 and that a smaller cane was in a giant cradle of bands.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1149160017061216308/20230907.png

ERC looming but we can probably hold off for a few more hours.

That scan confuses me, is that tiny dot the eye? It wasn't that pinhole-small at 0z. The inner CDO doesn't even look right.

I think it’s a lower resolution shot. It’s not as close up as the other satellite shot.

[Kingarabian]

https://i.ibb.co/VCydZD1/goes18-ir-11-E-202309062035.gif

The way the loop speed is set and Jova's CDO spin ferocity makes it look like its vibrating! About 3 hours ago Jova's satellite appearance reminded me of Linda 97 and that a smaller cane was in a giant cradle of bands.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1149160017061216308/20230907.png

ERC looming but we can probably hold off for a few more hours.

That scan confuses me, is that tiny dot the eye? It wasn't that pinhole-small at 0z. The inner CDO doesn't even look right.

Core is too small for MW imagery to resolve.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Are we all just anticipating the nhc 11 pm edt update?

[cycloneye]

Cat 5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023

...JOVA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 113.0W
ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES

[ElectricStorm]

They actually did it. I'm pleasantly surprised

First official EPAC Cat 5 since Willa

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023

The remarkable rapid intensification (RI) of Jova has continued this
evening. The hurricane's very warm, 10 n-mi-wide eye is surrounded
by a symmetric central dense overcast of convective cloud tops
colder than -75 deg C. Recent SSMIS microwave images suggest an
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is underway, with signs of a
formative secondary eyewall noted in 89-GHz imagery. The GOES
Geostationary Lightning Mapper has also shown an increase in inner
core lightning activity during the past several hours. Based on
Dvorak data-T numbers of 7.0 from SAB and TAFB at 00 UTC and rapidly
climbing objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity of
Jova is raised to 140 kt. This makes Jova a category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and signifies an 80-kt
intensity increase over the past 24 h.

The onset of an ERC and the recent lightning activity suggest that
the hurricane could be nearing its peak intensity. Structural
changes related to the ERC could cause some near-term intensity
fluctuations, but the NHC forecast still allows for a bit more
strengthening overnight given Jova's striking satellite presentation
and the conducive oceanic and atmospheric conditions along its path.
The hurricane is forecast to reach the 26C isotherm in 36-48 h,
after which time a faster rate of weakening is forecast while Jova
moves over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment.
Regardless, Jova is likely to remain a powerful hurricane for the
next few days. This forecast shows Jova keeping its tropical cyclone
status through day 5, although the global models suggest it could be
mostly devoid of convection and nearly post-tropical by the end of
the forecast period.

A mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico is steering Jova to
the west-northwest (300/13 kt). With the ridge entrenched to its
north, the hurricane is expected to continue on a west-northwestward
heading for the next several days, as depicted by the well-clustered
track guidance. The updated NHC forecast lies very close to the
previous prediction, but once again has been adjusted slightly
faster based on the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. As the
cyclone gradually spins down and weakens over cooler waters, the
shallow vortex is forecast to turn more westward at days 4 and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 15.7N 113.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 16.4N 115.1W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 17.6N 117.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 18.7N 120.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 21.4N 125.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 22.8N 127.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 24.6N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 25.5N 134.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[InfernoFlameCat]

Cat 5 boisssss!!! Lets gooo!

[CrazyC83]

It has a peak of 150 kt at 12Z, before the ERC should be on in earnest. It might peak sooner though.

[Ubuntwo]

Based on
Dvorak data-T numbers of 7.0 from SAB and TAFB at 00 UTC and rapidly
climbing objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity of
Jova is raised to 140 kt. This makes Jova a category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and signifies an 80-kt
intensity increase over the past 24 h.

80kt RI in 24 hours.

[Ntxw]

Deserved, this was the monster been waiting for (exceptional conditions) in a Nino. Eye is contracting some so ERC might be near as mentioned by Yellow Evan.

[Cyclenall]

Well it looks like we got some excitement tonight - I was hoping for the bump to 160 mph so kudos. I also want to know if its the fastest from TD to CAT 5, I don't know how folks search for metadata like that aside from getting some stat somewhere else and comparing.

[Woofde]

What an absolute beast of a storm. Super circular CDO, circular warm eye, cold cloud tops, it has it all. Looking forward to sunrise on this puppy

[SconnieCane]

Jova reminding everybody that hey, it may not be cramping the Atlantic's style as previously expected, but it's still an El Nino.

Too bad it likely won't hang onto this intensity for another ~48 hours so it and Lee can both look like this at the same time.

[cycloneye]

Only 54 hours ago was upgraded to TD.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1699621165357011023

[Ntxw]

Still formidable. Might achieve that 150kts.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Don't mind me, just saving some Jova loops for posterity.

https://i.ibb.co/9c9hbzm/11e.gif

A beautiful but deadly buzzsaw. Good thing it is only bothering the fishes. Hopefully, all ships will steer clear of this monster.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I personally think this is closer to 160 knots. What a beast.