ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#561 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Sep 06, 2023 10:49 pm

<-80c tower has gone off and appears to be rounding the southern edge of what I loosely assume is an eye…ish feature? Guess we’ll see if it persists and starts to give this a more classic appearance in the coming hours
3 likes   

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2367
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#562 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Sep 06, 2023 10:54 pm

Last edited by ScottNAtlanta on Thu Sep 07, 2023 8:57 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hurricane Mike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 644
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:44 am

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#563 Postby Hurricane Mike » Wed Sep 06, 2023 11:00 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
Hurrilurker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 719
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:32 pm
Location: San Francisco, CA

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#564 Postby Hurrilurker » Wed Sep 06, 2023 11:38 pm

The NE side looks a lot better, more symmetrical and better outflow, maybe shear is abating. Still looks like some dry air is intruding though.

EDIT: So much for symmetrical, looks a bit of a mess right now, but maybe just reorganizing.
0 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#565 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 07, 2023 1:39 am

Sciencerocks wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
GCANE wrote:Anti-cyclone has positioned north of the eyewall accounting for the disruption in outflow


12z Euro was 949 mb at 90 hrs, 18z was 968 mb. Maybe models backing off a little from insane Cat 5…


the 18z about 10 knots below the nhc forecast for hwrf, tvcn and such models. I don't think conditions will be quite as favorable. Could it be strong? Yes, but not irma or isabel level.

NHC clearly disagrees with Lee's ceiling being lower, as they just raised the forecast peak to 135 kt in the 11pm advisory (which they rarely do for a storm at this stage).
1 likes   

User avatar
SouthernBreeze
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 284
Age: 68
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:54 pm
Location: SC/NC line- on the SC Coast

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#566 Postby SouthernBreeze » Thu Sep 07, 2023 1:49 am

Not sure if it's moving enough N to make NHC's next forecast point. I put a marker on it about 7-8 hrs ago & there has been very little N movement, mostly just W
0 likes   
My posts are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It's just my opinion and not backed by sound meteorological data, and NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

grazed by many - most wind damage: Hugo (pre-cellphone days!) & most water: Floyd

IsabelaWeather
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 287
Age: 35
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:29 am
Location: Isabela, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#567 Postby IsabelaWeather » Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:14 am

SouthernBreeze wrote:Not sure if it's moving enough N to make NHC's next forecast point. I put a marker on it about 7-8 hrs ago & there has been very little N movement, mostly just W



Thats interesting, I was thinking it was moving mostly north, lol.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ubuntwo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1406
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#568 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:51 am

Image
12 likes   
Kendall -> SLO -> PBC

Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma

User avatar
Meteorcane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 559
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:49 am
Location: North Platte Nebraska

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#569 Postby Meteorcane » Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:54 am



Continues to look pretty organized "under-the hood" on microwave imagery, we will see if the IR presentation catches up shortly (a decent burst ongoing now).
3 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2586
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#570 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:59 am

Seems to be healthy and primed for RI on microwave. Not yet spectacular on IR but we've seen Jova yesterday, those things can change rapidly. Can't remember the last time we've had such an exciting EPAC and NATL storm combo.
4 likes   

User avatar
Meteorcane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 559
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:49 am
Location: North Platte Nebraska

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#571 Postby Meteorcane » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:25 am

Looking like it is really starting to wrap that deeper convection around the center the last hour... this could be the burst that insulates the core.

Image
13 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#572 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:29 am

Meteorcane wrote:Looking like it is really starting to wrap that deeper convection around the center the last hour... this could be the burst that insulates the core.

https://i.imgur.com/tTy4LT4.gif

Dramatic improvement on IR from a few hours ago. That eye is huge compared to Jova's.
0 likes   

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#573 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:30 am

Meteorcane wrote:Looking like it is really starting to wrap that deeper convection around the center the last hour... this could be the burst that insulates the core.

https://i.imgur.com/tTy4LT4.gif

Will likely rapidly improve as it crosses 50W
1 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2586
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#574 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:32 am

Teban54 wrote:
Meteorcane wrote:Looking like it is really starting to wrap that deeper convection around the center the last hour... this could be the burst that insulates the core.

https://i.imgur.com/tTy4LT4.gif

Dramatic improvement on IR from a few hours ago. That eye is huge compared to Jova's.


As RI starts the eye will probably shrink quite a bit.
2 likes   

User avatar
Hurrilurker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 719
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:32 pm
Location: San Francisco, CA

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#575 Postby Hurrilurker » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:42 am

NE outflow looks great now, shear must have backed off a lot.
0 likes   

mantis83
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 198
Joined: Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:47 pm

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#576 Postby mantis83 » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:45 am

threat to the islands looking less likely, according to the lastest nhc discussion. Lee starting to look really mean on IR
1 likes   

User avatar
Hurrilurker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 719
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:32 pm
Location: San Francisco, CA

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#577 Postby Hurrilurker » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:50 am

Uh oh…

9 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2586
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#578 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:51 am

Hurrilurker wrote:Uh oh…

https://imgur.com/1UZH6Sc


Lee saw Jova starting an EWRC and was like, now it's my time to shine :lol:
5 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#579 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:27 am

Interesting convective structure at the moment:
Image
4 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2586
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#580 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:52 am

ADT is liking Lee's new structure, raw T# from 3.6 to 4.2 in the last 2 hours.
0 likes   


Return to “2023”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests