ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Lee says, so much hype to Jova,but now is my time to blossom and grab the spotlight back to me.

[kevin]

Lee says, so much atention to Jova,but now is my time to blossom and grab the atention back to me.

Jova, I'm really happy for you, I'mma let you finish, but Lee has one of the best forecasts of all-time.

Let's see how many people get the reference

[cycloneye]

Lee says, so much atention to Jova,but now is my time to blossom and grab the atention back to me.

Jova, I'm really happy for you, I'mma let you finish, but Lee has one of the best forecasts of all-time.

Let's see how many people get the reference

And will have recon that Jova has not haved.

[aspen]

Lee says, so much atention to Jova,but now is my time to blossom and grab the atention back to me.

Jova, I'm really happy for you, I'mma let you finish, but Lee has one of the best forecasts of all-time.

Let's see how many people get the reference

And will have recon that Jova has not haved.

Dual hot towers are starting to fire around the eye, and the microwave structure is well ahead of what the HAFS-A/B are forecasting/initializing. We could have a major when recon arrives tonight.

[kevin]

Hot towers and the eye is warming:

[kevin]

The mean cloud temperature is also falling rapidly, from -50C to -73C in the last 4 hours.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1699713899338027496

[kevin]

A very potent eyewall is already present, looks even better than I expected

[aspen]

A very potent eyewall is already present, looks even better than I expected

https://i.imgur.com/dR1o6kT.png

This is running 12-18 hours ahead of the HAFS-A/B. They didn’t show such a potent eyewall until tonight or early tomorrow. Can’t wait to see what recon finds tonight. We’re getting 6-hourly fixes afterwards, right?

[eastcoastFL]

[MarioProtVI]

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2023_13L/web/last24hrs.gif

Yeah this is about to explode, I expect a special advisory in like an hour to raise the intensity.

[kevin]

Also no SAL near Lee. By the time it gets to the SAL near the islands it will be strong enough and have its own environment so it won't notice it at all.

[kevin]

Slightly south of the forecast track.

[cvalkan4]

Lee says, so much atention to Jova,but now is my time to blossom and grab the atention back to me.

Jova, I'm really happy for you, I'mma let you finish, but Lee has one of the best forecasts of all-time.

Let's see how many people get the reference

The West movement is Swift

[ouragans]

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2023_13L/web/last24hrs.gif

Yeah this is about to explode, I expect a special advisory in like an hour to raise the intensity.

Not sure there will be a Special advisory, as there is no threat to land

[REDHurricane]

And Lee's off to the races, all bets are off now -- wouldn't surprise me if we see a cat 4 by the end of the day today. It's kind of scary to realize that all of the models might still be underestimating Lee's intensity at the moment... does anyone think Lee could possibly develop into the first sub-900mb Atlantic hurricane since Rita/Wilma in 2005?

[HurricaneEnzo]

And Lee's off to the races, all bets are off now -- wouldn't surprise me if we see a cat 4 by the end of the day today. It's kind of scary to realize that all of the models might still be underestimating Lee's intensity at the moment... does anyone think Lee could possibly develop into the first sub-900mb Atlantic hurricane since Rita/Wilma in 2005?

I would say I doubt it as it has never happened in the part of the world that it is being modeled. I would say 900-910mb peak is more likely but who knows? Waters are extra spicy this season and it looks like it is going to have a couple of outflow channels. If mid-level dry air isn't an issue we could see history.

[kevin]

Here we go, this is at least 75 - 80 kt now imo. ADT puts it at 77 kt.

[GCANE]

Looks like a small shock wave on IR, NE quad.
Something along the lines of what was seen in Idalia when she ramped up.

[Woofde]

Where Lee ends up slowing down will have a huge effect on its intensity. If Lee sticks South it will have ample amounts of high energy fuel. Further North and it's more dubious.