ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Lees IR presentation looks like what the HAFS-B model has simulated for it to look like late tomorrow night. This thing is way ahead of schedule as far as intensity goes.

[cheezyWXguy]

My guess for current intensity right now is 105kt. I’d honestly be inclined to go a little higher, but the winds are probably playing catch-up to the appearance. You don’t get mesovorts like that with a mid-range cat2

[aspen]

I’m thinking we’re gonna need a special advisory soon. Lee is likely a major and will probably be 115-120 kt, if not higher, by 5pm.

[Chemmers]

HOLY-

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 6.2

The T numbers are pushing against the constraint rules now. Probably intensifying faster than the rules allow. I’d lean more toward the raw T# for now until the Final and Adjusted catch up.

I found a video explaining the "T" number thingy (since I didn't understand it), and according to this video, that number CAN go all the way up to 8.

Here is a link to the video:

https://severeweather.wmo.int/TCFW/RAIV ... kBeven.pdf

Think there are only a handful off storms that have ever made it to an 8, think the last 2 was super typhoon haiyan and Hurricane Patricia

Think it will get to 7 maybe 7.5

[CryHavoc]

My guess for current intensity right now is 105kt. I’d honestly be inclined to go a little higher, but the winds are probably playing catch-up to the appearance. You don’t get mesovorts like that with a mid-range cat2

Agree. Structurally Lee resembles a min cat 4 already IMO.

Usually you see an eye pop out and then the superstructure build into place afterward.

With Lee the eye was actually a bit later in formation as he already had incredible 3 quadrant outflow, so when the eye popped he just went off.

At this rate we could see a cat 5 structure by twilight.

[cycloneye]

Oh my, What Andy said as he embarks to St Croix. " Thinking we might see one of the stronger storms the Atlantic has ever produced by this weekend"

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1699816910509023249

[CryHavoc]

The T numbers are pushing against the constraint rules now. Probably intensifying faster than the rules allow. I’d lean more toward the raw T# for now until the Final and Adjusted catch up.

I found a video explaining the "T" number thingy (since I didn't understand it), and according to this video, that number CAN go all the way up to 8.

Here is a link to the video:

https://severeweather.wmo.int/TCFW/RAIV ... kBeven.pdf

Think there are only a handful off storms that have ever made it to an 8, think the last 2 was super typhoon haiyan and Hurricane Patricia

Think it will get to 7 maybe 7.5

Technically Haiyan and Patricia both went over 8, as the ADT makes no allowance for an eye feature embedded in such a thick ring of CDG. Haiyan was an 8.2 or 8.3 while he peaked, and operationally had a central pressure estimated around 858mb.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I’m thinking we’re gonna need a special advisory soon. Lee is likely a major and will probably be 115-120 kt, if not higher, by 5pm.

not likely this far from land

[SconnieCane]

I found a video explaining the "T" number thingy (since I didn't understand it), and according to this video, that number CAN go all the way up to 8.

Here is a link to the video:

https://severeweather.wmo.int/TCFW/RAIV ... kBeven.pdf

Think there are only a handful off storms that have ever made it to an 8, think the last 2 was super typhoon haiyan and Hurricane Patricia

Think it will get to 7 maybe 7.5

Technically Haiyan and Patricia both went over 8, as the ADT makes no allowance for an eye feature embedded in such a thick ring of CDG. Haiyan was an 8.2 or 8.3 while he peaked, and operationally had a central pressure estimated around 858mb.

That would not just beat, but obliterate Tip's "record." What is the reason the official pressure is considered 37mb higher (895mb)?

[Chemmers]

[quote="cycloneye"]Oh my, What Andy said as he embarks to St Croix. " Thinking we might see one of the stronger storms the Atlantic has ever produced by this weekend"

Think this storm will go sub 900

[Chemmers]

Think there are only a handful off storms that have ever made it to an 8, think the last 2 was super typhoon haiyan and Hurricane Patricia

Think it will get to 7 maybe 7.5

Technically Haiyan and Patricia both went over 8, as the ADT makes no allowance for an eye feature embedded in such a thick ring of CDG. Haiyan was an 8.2 or 8.3 while he peaked, and operationally had a central pressure estimated around 858mb.

That would not just beat, but obliterate Tip's "record." What is the reason the official pressure is considered 37mb higher (895mb)?

No recon planes? would off love to have one fly in at it peak

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Oh my, What Andy said as he embarks to St Croix. " Thinking we might see one of the stronger storms the Atlantic has ever produced by this weekend"

Think this storm will go sub 900

There has never been at North Atlantic storm sub 900 outside of GOM and the Caribbean Sea.

Not saying it won't happen, but it would be without precedent.

[Kazmit]

Already a stadium effect going on. I think Lee completely skipped category 3.

[Chemmers]

Oh my, What Andy said as he embarks to St Croix. " Thinking we might see one of the stronger storms the Atlantic has ever produced by this weekend"

Think this storm will go sub 900

There has never been at North Atlantic storm sub 900 outside of GOM and the Caribbean Sea.

Not saying it won't happen, but it would be without precedent.

Defo will be interested to see if it does and set the record?

[REDHurricane]

Oh my, What Andy said as he embarks to St Croix. " Thinking we might see one of the stronger storms the Atlantic has ever produced by this weekend"

Think this storm will go sub 900

There has never been at North Atlantic storm sub 900 outside of GOM and the Caribbean Sea.

Not saying it won't happen, but it would be without precedent.

Is there a particular reason for this, or could it just as likely be coincidence?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

There has never been at North Atlantic storm sub 900 outside of GOM and the Caribbean Sea.

Not saying it won't happen, but it would be without precedent.

Is there a particular reason for this, or could it just as likely be coincidence?

Those areas have higher sea surface temperatures and thus can sustain a stronger storm.

[Kingarabian]

Looks solid so far. Need the CDO and W ring to become more circular. Would say it's 100kts now.

[tomatkins]

Lees IR presentation looks like what the HAFS-B model has simulated for it to look like late tomorrow night. This thing is way ahead of schedule as far as intensity goes.

Should be interesting to see how that affects the track forecasts, and the storms evolution (does the earlier than expected strengthening put it in a somewhat different environment 2 or 3 days from now?)

[Woofde]

There has never been at North Atlantic storm sub 900 outside of GOM and the Caribbean Sea.

Not saying it won't happen, but it would be without precedent.

Is there a particular reason for this, or could it just as likely be coincidence?

Historically waters have not been warm enough to support such a storm. Due to the warming, that is no longer the case. The basin is over a degree Celsius above average. That's a lot of fuel.

[Weather Watcher]

Already a stadium effect going on. I think Lee completely skipped category 3.

How do you already know this? Through satellite or NOAA?