ATL: LEE - Models

[jlauderdal]

Wow... If some of these intensities pan out, the Hurricane Hunters are going to be in for a heck of a ride over the next two to three days. Kudos to those men and women in those planes gathering crucial data. Here's hoping they have a good flight and return home safely.

Yes and lets hope their comms work when needed, this has been an issue for years.

[Beef Stew]

The most recent HAFS runs are absurd. A 165 knot storm would tie Allen for the most intense (by wind speed) on record in the Atlantic (although I personally will always believe that the Labor Day storm may have exceeded this); 175 would shatter it, not to mention test the boundaries of what's even theoretically possible in this part of the Atlantic.

I don't suspect these intensities pan out (how can one reasonably?)- but if nothing else, modeling suggests that Lee is going to have some of the most conductive environmental conditions that we've ever observed in this part of the basin to work with, barring anything unforeseen.

[tomatkins]

I like how in the latest GFS future Margot not only helps steer Lee out to sea, but helpfully sticks and heads back west to do the same for future Nigel.

[LarryWx]

eps 00z
https://i.imgur.com/x3P1ty8.png
https://i.imgur.com/uEAnpG2.png

The 0Z EPS' 6 (12%) CONUS hits is the highest yet, beating the 5 hits by the 0Z of 24 hours ago for the full 15 day run. Four hit ME and two hit MA. And that's only through 240 as it appears a couple more will likely hit after 240.
This is more evidence that the NE is NOT safe though I still consider it a low probability as of now.
Nova Scotia and the area near Bermuda appear to get hit the hardest.

As mentioned above, the 0Z EPS had 6 members with US hits (4 ME and 2 MA) just through 240, which was already the largest # of hits of any complete EPS run yet, and with the post 240 portion still not then out. 

 The post 240 portion showed another 4 hits (3 MA and 1 ME meaning a total of 5 ME and 5 MA) for a full 0Z EPS total of 10 (20%), which doubles the previous run highest hit total of 5 (10%) that was from the run 24 hours earlier.

 Summary of EPS (0Z and 12Z) runs' CONUS hits:

0Z 9/7: 10 (20%) (9/15-18) (5 ME, 5 MA)
12Z 9/6: 3 (6%) (ME 9/15 & 9/17, MA 9/18)
0Z 9/6: 5 (10%)
12Z 9/5: 2 (4%)
0Z 9/5: 4 (8%)                                             
12Z 9/4: 1 (2%)            
0Z 9/4: 2 (4%)

[RevanTheJedi96]

I like how in the latest GFS future Margot not only helps steer Lee out to sea, but helpfully sticks and heads back west to do the same for future Nigel.

The GFS model is tricky with East Coast hurricanes. I don't think it'll be that reliable for Lee.

[PavelGaborik10]

I like how in the latest GFS future Margot not only helps steer Lee out to sea, but helpfully sticks and heads back west to do the same for future Nigel.

The GFS model is tricky with East Coast hurricanes. I don't think it'll be that reliable for Lee.

FWIW the CMC shows the same, and that did quite well with Fiona last year.

[HurricaneBelle]

I like how in the latest GFS future Margot not only helps steer Lee out to sea, but helpfully sticks and heads back west to do the same for future Nigel.

Margot making plans for Nigel

[chris_fit]

12Z Euro More NE and slower through 96

[kevin]

These are some of the craziest model runs I've ever seen, not just in the Atlantic basin but worldwide.

[sicktght311]

These are some of the craziest model runs I've ever seen, not just in the Atlantic basin but worldwide.

If this year hasnt already shown us that super strong Hurricanes are very likely due to SSTs, it would very much feel like winter storms on the NAM every year, where 5-6 days out you get outputs showing apocalyptic scenarios with 4-5 feet of snow that never verify and everyone just says you got "Nam'ed"

I would very much not like to see us all get HAF'ed right now. This is getting scary, and up here in the Tristate area we're watching VERY closely

[mitchell]

I like how in the latest GFS future Margot not only helps steer Lee out to sea, but helpfully sticks and heads back west to do the same for future Nigel.

Margot making plans for Nigel

Nice obscure '80s music reference there! Not sure it was intentional...

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro 144 a whopping 41 mb weaker (960) than 0Z 156 (919) and barely ESE of the 0Z

[PavelGaborik10]

Euro looks like trouble for SE Canada/Maine unless that ridge rapidly erodes.

[IcyTundra]

12Z Euro 144 a whopping 41 mb weaker (960) than 0Z 156 (919) and barely ESE of the 0Z

Yeah the Euro usually doesn’t do great with intensity lol.

[PavelGaborik10]

Euro into Maine

[SouthFLTropics]

Well there's something you don't see everyday. Euro comes in with an almost direct hit on Nantucket and Cape Cod and the very rare impact to Maine.

[ColdMiser123]

Euro has all the same pieces the GFS/CMC have. Wouldn't take much for those to look like the Euro (and vice versa). Lots of tracking incoming for those of us in the Northeast.

[LarryWx]

Euro into Maine

Indeed, E ME 966 mb on 9/16 at 18Z

[MetroMike]

The 12Z HAFS-A Parent model is rather disconcerting as the end frames are above P.R.and no signs of moving North yet.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro passes just east of Cape Cod and landfall near Bar Harbor, ME. 966mb ish