ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

COD floater view: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

If your PC or device can handle it...change it to 96 frames and you will really see the eye clear out and the beginning of the "stadium effect"

[Sciencerocks]

[Charleswachal]

Have been lurking for a while but figured I would join in on this conversation. It appears to me that Lee is going to make a run for cat 5 during the overnight tonight. I would say the only thing stopping him is internal structure changes. ie. EWRC

[kronotsky]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/571/iflVSe.gif

wow!

also: where can I find this floater imagery with the GLM overlay?

[wxman57]

Came across a very good tropical models page from a Univ. of OK PHD student. Has a multi-model ensemble plot of Lee using the GFS, EC, CMC, and UKMET ensembles. Lots of other stuff, too.

Select "Cumulative Plots", "Total Density (no lines)" for the graphic that shows the probability of the center passing within 150km of a point using all 4 ensembles.

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/ensembles.php?storm=AL132023

[eastcoastFL]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/571/iflVSe.gif

wow!

also: where can I find this floater imagery with the GLM overlay?

That’s from weather nerds

[Sciencerocks]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/571/iflVSe.gif

wow!

also: where can I find this floater imagery with the GLM overlay?

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... itgefs=Off

[jconsor]

Combination of stronger ridge nosing down to NW of Lee and upper low to its NE trending stronger and a little closer to Lee is likely the reason we are seeing more ensemble members trend toward a bend to nearly due west between 60-70W longitude.

If a sustained bend to the W occurs, it would significantly increase the risk to land areas from the eastern Bahamas and Turks.and Caicos Islands to the NC Outer Banks and northeast US coast.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1699827833890066694

[Charleswachal]

One of the major indications of a rapidly intensifying hurricane is the lightning. I am not sure how to add images here but when you add the lightning map to the rapid refresh sat imagery you will see there is a ton of lightning in the eyewall. Eyewalls are not known for lightning except under rapid intensifications.

[Sciencerocks]

It is scary how accurate the new model is on predicting strength of tropical cyclone. I've used the hwrf, ship, tvcn in general for forecasting storm strength but they have way under estimated the scale and speed of the intensification today. The hafs on Idalia and now this blows everything else away.

[SconnieCane]

Oh, God. After TWO sub-910mb peaks, the 12Z HAFS-B depicts an EWRC completing on Monday leading to a gigantic eye, after which the pressure starts to drop again on the last frame.

[Ubuntwo]

Eyewall very robust on the low resolution ATMS. Note there is almost no banding associated with Lee, this will help keep energy concentrated inward & stave any ERC for the time being.

[chris_fit]

Came across a very good tropical models page from a Univ. of OK PHD student. Has a multi-model ensemble plot of Lee using the GFS, EC, CMC, and UKMET ensembles. Lots of other stuff, too.

Select "Cumulative Plots", "Total Density (no lines)" for the graphic that shows the probability of the center passing within 150km of a point using all 4 ensembles.

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/ensembles.php?storm=AL132023

Nice to see you posting!! Missed you during Idalia.

[CrazyC83]

I’m thinking we’re gonna need a special advisory soon. Lee is likely a major and will probably be 115-120 kt, if not higher, by 5pm.

Why would we need a special advisory if it's out in the middle of the ocean away from any land masses?

Maritime interests…commercial shipping and transatlantic crossings by smaller vessels. Additionally, Lee is about to cross a couple of major air routes to/from Europe from the Caribbean.

Special advisories in the distant ocean are usually for updating the forecasts as well. I'm not sure if the intensity has deviated too much from forecast to warrant such, although if there are Dvorak T6.0 ratings, it might be warranted.

Also, with Recon coming later today, they probably won't raise the intensity TOO much yet until they know for sure.

[Iceresistance]

A lot of lightning in the eyewall of Lee


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgPXf.gif

[LAwxrgal]

Just quickly popped on, have been busy with work stuff.

Lee is definitely getting its act together. Hope this bad boy doesn't threaten any land areas. That being said, this is the peak of hurricane season, so all storms this time of year must be watched closely.

[Weather Watcher]

You can see what looks like a stadium effect on high res visible.

Link to hi res

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=13L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0&llval=OFF

Thank you

[kevin]

Does anyone know why NHC went with 983 mb for a high-end cat 2? Background pressure is normal at 1012 mb and to me there aren't any indications why this would have a higher pressure than is to be expected for a 90 kt system. They also don't mention the high pressure anywhere in the discussion. Maybe a typo? Or maybe the RI is so fast that the pressure still needs to catch up? But if I understand correctly usually it's the pressure that drops first followed by the winds catching up.

[cheezyWXguy]

Does anyone know why NHC went with 983 mb for a high-end cat 2? Background pressure is normal at 1012 mb and to me there aren't any indications why this would have a higher pressure than is to be expectes for a 90 kt system. They also don't mention the high pressure anywhere in the discussion. Maybe a typo?

Probably just an assumption of higher background pressures. Last night when it was at 70kt it was at 989mb which is still pretty high. Still think 983mb is too high, but not totally out of line. Either way it’s certainly a lot lower than that now

[Sciencerocks]

105knts is my estimate