Texas Fall 2023

[tajmahal]

The wind all summer has been low at the same time solar goes dark creating the nightfall supply and demand risk.

Usually the wind power picks up as solar power generation fades away. Many interesting developments are under way to help the grid. One is Teslas or EV's sending energy back into the grid when needed to help with the lack of supply.

I don't own an EV, but that would suck waking up and have your battery drained.

Keep your hands off my thermostat and EV batteries!!!!!

Always voluntary.

[tajmahal]

I will never get a smart thermostat. I control my temp, not a remote computer.

Funny how a few hours earlier ERCOT said everything was fine with normal demand, just the daily conservation request. They have poor planning.

ERCOT does not turn on or turn off power plants.

[tajmahal]

All things being equal ... with slightly hotter temperatures expected today and definitely hotter temperatures tomorrow ... if the grid was shaky last night ... what the heck is going to happen tonight and tomorrow night?!

Trouble for tonight (Thursday) at 8:00 CDT when ERCOT forecasts reserves of –164 megawatts (not a typo).

[Edwards Limestone]

Can we get back to awesome Texas/SW weather posts please? There's been a ton of way OT posts the past month or so IMO.

I think this summer is making everyone crazy

[Edwards Limestone]

Euro looking good next week for our NTX/Okla posters. Poor San Antonio...again.

[CaptinCrunch]

If it hasn't been mentioned yet, DFW tied 1954 for 4th on the number of 100+ days in the calendar year @ 54
We should get 56 counting tomorrow and Saturday.

Greatest Annual
Rank - # of Days - Year
1 --- 71 --- 2011
2 --- 69 --- 1980
3 --- 56 --- 1998
4 --- 52 --- 1954
4 --- 52 --- 2023*
6 --- 48 --- 1956
7 --- 47 --- 2022
8 --- 46 --- 2000
9 --- 44 --- 1952
10 --- 43 --- 2006

[Tireman4]

HGX September so far

CLIMATE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 7 2023

Through the first six days of the month...

-College Station`s average temperature of 91.5 degrees is 8.0
degrees above normal. This is their warmest start of the month
on record (2nd place is 90.4 degrees in 2000). Records date
back to 1889.

-Houston`s average temperature of 89.2 degrees is 6.0 degrees
above normal. This is their 2nd warmest start of the month on
record (1st place is 89.3 degrees in 2000). Records date back
to 1889.

-Houston Hobby`s average temperature of 89.1 degrees is 5.7
degrees above normal. This is their 2nd warmest start of the
month on record (1st place is 90.1 degrees in 2000). Records
date back to 1930.

-Galveston`s average temperature of 87.8 degrees is 3.6 degrees
above normal. This is their 4th warmest start of the month on
record (1st place is 89.0 degrees in 2020). Records date back
to 1874.

-Palacios`s average temperature of 86.3 degrees is 2.4 degrees
above normal. This is their 6th warmest start of the month
on record (1st place is 88.6 degrees in 2000). Records date
back to 1943.

42

&&

[South Texas Storms]

Euro looking good next week for our NTX/Okla posters. Poor San Antonio...again.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023090700/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_64.png

No need to be worried about that. The 12z run increased rainfall totals to 1 inch across Bexar county. It's just nice to have rain chances finally returning!

[dpep4]

FYI EPAC Jova is a cat 5.

What is the significance of this system? Its remnants, per models, will be injected into the STJ flow that comes into TX early next week. So yes, some Jova moisture accompanies the pattern change.

I have no idea, but Houston Oilers fans know the significance of Hurricane Stagger Lee in the Atlantic...(could be a disaster....)

[tajmahal]

Long–climate record Texas stations reporting their hottest September 1–6 on record:

Abilene Area (ThreadEx)
Austwell
Brownsville Area (ThreadEx)
College Station Area (ThreadEx)
El Paso Area (ThreadEx)
Fort Stockton
Hallettsville 2 N
San Antonio Kelly Field AFB
San Antonio Randolph AFB
Snyder

The hottest September 1–6 on record in Texas happened at Henrietta in 1947 when the average was 93.7°. The coolest happend on Mount Locke in 1950 when the average was 59.4°.

The earliest Texas freeze was on September 7, 1893, when the temperature dropped to 32° in Coldwater.

[weatherdude1108]

FYI EPAC Jova is a cat 5.

What is the significance of this system? Its remnants, per models, will be injected into the STJ flow that comes into TX early next week. So yes, some Jova moisture accompanies the pattern change.

Our local weatherman just talked about this,

Fingers crossed!

[South Texas Storms]

There could be some nasty storms in the Houston area tomorrow around sunset. Hopefully they behave themselves. Don't want any trees down or power outages around here again. It's already happened multiple times this summer across the area.

[dpep4]

Am hoping the rain chances for tomorrow afternoon and evening make enough of a minor cooling difference in case ERCOT is near the limit. One more day of risk and then we should be good until winter.

[Brent]

Not sure about rain but no highs above the mid 80s after Sunday

Actually most of next week may be struggling to 80

[mmmmsnouts]

One thing not helping ERCOT, there's been a noticeable lack of wind with these last couple heat waves. Usually there's a hot breeze blowing, but it seems like the ridge is so strong and so sprawling that other weather features can't even get close to it and create enough pressure difference to cause wind. The TCEQ action days this year have been mainly for ozone and stagnant air rather than wind-blown pollutants.

[Tejas89]

107 today at DFW today will absolutely smash the record of 100. This summer ending in style (hopefully we’re done with records for a while anyway).

[cstrunk]

Chance of storms today with SPC's slight risk. Low 90's this weekend. Low-to-mid 80's next week with more rain chances! About time!

[Ntxw]

One thing not helping ERCOT, there's been a noticeable lack of wind with these last couple heat waves. Usually there's a hot breeze blowing, but it seems like the ridge is so strong and so sprawling that other weather features can't even get close to it and create enough pressure difference to cause wind. The TCEQ action days this year have been mainly for ozone and stagnant air rather than wind-blown pollutants.

Ercot noted it was transmission/frequency that was the issue. Wind underperforming does happen but the blip in this case was the wind generation from coastal South Texas couldn't make it up to the rest of the state because of the transmission issues.

We got one more very hot day then it is downhill from here. So ready for it!

[rwfromkansas]

I was getting excited even to see just 90 for high. The fact that DFW is looking at low 80s later next week is fantastic.

[Iceresistance]

Am I dreaming?


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