ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#761 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:32 pm

msbee wrote:Watching this unfold is just unreal. The power of nature is awe inspiring.
I am so thankful the northeast Caribbean has been spared from a direct hit. It would have been devastating. And I hope Lee stays far away from any land.


Agree 100%. It would have been a disaster of major proportions for the islands and let's hope it stays at open sea.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#762 Postby Beef Stew » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:32 pm

If we're posting recon guesses:

115 kts, 947 mb on arrival
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#763 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:33 pm

I'm going to say 115kt 945
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#764 Postby RevanTheJedi96 » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:33 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:127 knot flight level, 118 knot smrf and 942mb pressure.


Already at 942 mb?????
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#765 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:33 pm

Right now I'll go 117 kts 947mb.

By the time recon gets there? 125 kts 939mb.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#766 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:34 pm

RevanTheJedi96 wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:127 knot flight level, 118 knot smrf and 942mb pressure.


Already at 942 mb?????

I think they're posting their predictions of what recon will find.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#767 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:35 pm

Recon will find 125kts 935 pressure
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#768 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:36 pm

130 kts 928 MB ( by the time recon gets there)
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#769 Postby Beef Stew » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:37 pm

I think tonight is just going to be the recon "appetizer"... before the main course tomorrow when Lee's really bombing into a storm that's in the upper-echelon of Atlantic hurricanes. I do suspect that the winds will begin to catch up a bit more to the structure by the time recon is leaving tonight though.

All speculation, of course.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#770 Postby SteveM » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:37 pm

How long until recon arrives?
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#771 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:38 pm

SteveM wrote:How long until recon arrives?


Arrives to the storm at around 7pm
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#772 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:40 pm

Interestingly the recon reported surface pressure out of St Croix is 1008mb...which is a rather low base state, so Lee's pressure could be lower as well relative to background
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#773 Postby Coolcruiseman » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:46 pm

Phenomenal what is being seen from Lee today. Be very interesting to see how the data collected tonight & tomorrow affect the future model projections on tracking.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#774 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:50 pm

wx98 wrote:Going with 115 kt Cat 4 at 21z with a low 950s MSLP

For the record, I was going with the Advisory intensity from NHC. Not a recon guess…
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#775 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:50 pm

Recon on the way
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#776 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:50 pm

cycloneye wrote:
msbee wrote:Watching this unfold is just unreal. The power of nature is awe inspiring.
I am so thankful the northeast Caribbean has been spared from a direct hit. It would have been devastating. And I hope Lee stays far away from any land.


Agree 100%. It would have been a disaster of major proportions for the islands and let's hope it stays at open sea.

I second that....
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#777 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:52 pm

If recon finds this at only 115kt I’ll eat my shoe. 130kt seems more likely to me.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#778 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:52 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#779 Postby HurricaneBelle » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:52 pm

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...RIP CURRENTS AND HAZARDOUS SURF WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE MAINLAND U.S. BY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 51.3W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#780 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:53 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...RIP CURRENTS AND HAZARDOUS SURF WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE MAINLAND U.S. BY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 51.3W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


Wow, it might be pushing Cat 5 when recon arrives
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