ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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aspen
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion Update: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3, 105 kt

#781 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:54 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote::craz:
https://imageshack.com/i/pm6v9gOPj

Hello Dorian.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#782 Postby WalterWhite » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:54 pm

The NHC expects this to peak at 145 knots now.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#783 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:54 pm

Did anyone have 115kt 953?
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion Update: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3, 105 kt

#784 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:56 pm

WalterWhite wrote:We now have Major Hurricane Lee. It is official.

AL, 13, 2023090718, , BEST, 0, 166N, 507W, 105, 961, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 20, 1011, 250, 15, 130, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LEE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027,

Lee Majors

[youtube]https://youtu.be/cRgqouS1O6E[/youtube]
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#785 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:56 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Did anyone have 115kt 953?

I said 115 kt, low 950s for the advisory
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#786 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:58 pm

wx98 wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Did anyone have 115kt 953?

I said 115 kt, low 950s for the advisory

Then by the power invested in me (which is none)...I declare you the WINNER!!! :woo: :woo: :woo:
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: 5 PM= Cat 4 130 mph

#787 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:03 pm

The eye is looking more round and less bumpy in the eyewall and also clearing out which is a sign of continued rapid intensification
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: 5 PM= Cat 4 130 mph

#788 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:05 pm

Confidence remains high in the track for Lee, with almost no change
made to the NHC track forecast. Lee should continue moving
west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge
for the next 5 days. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken by
early next week, causing Lee to slow down. This track should keep
the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands.
There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential
impacts a week or more out.


They don’t even want to get involved in the turn debate lol
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: 5 PM= Cat 4 130 mph

#789 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:06 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Confidence remains high in the track for Lee, with almost no change
made to the NHC track forecast. Lee should continue moving
west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge
for the next 5 days. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken by
early next week, causing Lee to slow down. This track should keep
the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands.
There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential
impacts a week or more out.


They don’t even want to get involved in the turn debate lol

Well, there you go. So we can please stop with the Out to sea debate?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: 5 PM= Cat 4 130 mph

#790 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:07 pm

This might be 130-135 kt when recon arrives, perhaps even a 5.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: 5 PM= Cat 4 130 mph

#791 Postby RevanTheJedi96 » Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:13 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
Confidence remains high in the track for Lee, with almost no change
made to the NHC track forecast. Lee should continue moving
west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge
for the next 5 days. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken by
early next week, causing Lee to slow down. This track should keep
the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands.
There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential
impacts a week or more out.


They don’t even want to get involved in the turn debate lol

Well, there you go. So we can please stop with the Out to sea debate?


I'm not sure how anyone could feel safe with an OTS bet. Not after today's Euro.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: 5 PM= Cat 4 130 mph

#792 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:15 pm

RevanTheJedi96 wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
Confidence remains high in the track for Lee, with almost no change
made to the NHC track forecast. Lee should continue moving
west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge
for the next 5 days. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken by
early next week, causing Lee to slow down. This track should keep
the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands.
There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential
impacts a week or more out.


They don’t even want to get involved in the turn debate lol

Well, there you go. So we can please stop with the Out to sea debate?


I'm not sure how anyone could feel safe with an OTS bet. Not after today's Euro.

Some members believe it's set in stone already when this is expected to slow down considerably which also decreases model accuracy.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: 5 PM= Cat 4 130 mph

#793 Postby lafaa » Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:18 pm

Watching the eye develop on the IR loop this quickly has been fascinating to see. The last image on the current loop is unbelievably symmetrical, reminiscent of Dorian's powerup immediately before landfall.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#794 Postby Michele B » Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:19 pm




How can something be so awesome and so frightening all at the same time?!?!
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: 5 PM= Cat 4 130 mph

#795 Postby invest man » Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:20 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
Confidence remains high in the track for Lee, with almost no change
made to the NHC track forecast. Lee should continue moving
west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge
for the next 5 days. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken by
early next week, causing Lee to slow down. This track should keep
the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands.
There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential
impacts a week or more out.


They don’t even want to get involved in the turn debate lol

Well, there you go. So we can please stop with the Out to sea debate?


Yeah, what is that about? Could they be thinking a prolonged period of slow movement westward due to the large size not being influenced by the trough? Or perhaps the models show an influence of Margot but how can a smaller storm influence a larger one? Hummm…
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: 5 PM= Cat 4 130 mph

#796 Postby mantis83 » Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:33 pm

my guess is 141kt and 938
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#797 Postby REDHurricane » Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:33 pm

12 hours in the life of Lee:

Image
Image
Last edited by REDHurricane on Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: 5 PM= Cat 4 130 mph

#798 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:33 pm

RevanTheJedi96 wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
Confidence remains high in the track for Lee, with almost no change
made to the NHC track forecast. Lee should continue moving
west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge
for the next 5 days. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken by
early next week, causing Lee to slow down. This track should keep
the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands.
There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential
impacts a week or more out.


They don’t even want to get involved in the turn debate lol

Well, there you go. So we can please stop with the Out to sea debate?


I'm not sure how anyone could feel safe with an OTS bet. Not after today's Euro.


I don’t know how one or two runs make people feel safe this far out. There are too many variables a week out to ever feel safe, we have seen the shifts happen too many times.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#799 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:34 pm

I'm going to go with 120 kts and 947 mb. Winds still need to play catch up.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#800 Postby FireRat » Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:36 pm

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