ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Still getting warmer!


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgXn1.png

[TorSkk]

If this is another warm-eye overperformance, the Dvorak estimates might need to look at greater eye adjustments. After all, comparing Dorian to Eta (very warm eye with mostly W vs. sub-freezing eye with CDG), you'd think looking at it on conventional satellite, Eta was much stronger when in reality Dorian was the stronger storm.

Only time will tell.

Yeah, eye is getting very warm and uniform, but we simply won't get a DT higher than 7.0 as I don't believe a CMG ring is possible here. So basically Dvorak is maxed out with Lee, unless we base on MET

[Abdullah]

Is lightning still continuing inside the storm?

Slowing down a bit but still there

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExOXBtczBjYmFiZW40MXYxeHgwcmhsZHcweTFvM3J4aWt5MGtqYXFoMyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/yuXcnHQLSdEjXpOXq9/giphy.gif

Where can I find this GIF?

[Iceresistance]

Is lightning still continuing inside the storm?

Slowing down a bit but still there

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExOXBtczBjYmFiZW40MXYxeHgwcmhsZHcweTFvM3J4aWt5MGtqYXFoMyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/yuXcnHQLSdEjXpOXq9/giphy.gif

Where can I find this GIF?

It's from WeatherNerds

[brad512]

I normally lurk and estimate without posting but this could be a big one, however I find I end up going too high with ones that look insane such as this one does, so I'm gonna go with 125kts and 935mb now. Of course the one time I "low-ball" it I'll probably be off

[cheezyWXguy]

Still getting warmer!

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgXn1.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgXn1.png

That’s honestly insane. Are there any non-cat5’s that have had eyes that warm?

[USTropics]

From a few hours ago, solid eyewall structure and no signs of an imminent EWRC. Barring internal structural changes like an EWRC, the environment remains ideal for the next ~48 hours:

[hipshot]

I'm going with recon finding 125kt and 922mb. Recon should be starting their descent here shortly...just passed 55w

My thoughts are with these brave souls flying into this storm, I read the account of a recon with Irma (I think) that almost took them
down. Pretty f'ing scary!!!!

[SunnyThoughts]

I'm going with recon finding 125kt and 922mb. Recon should be starting their descent here shortly...just passed 55w

My thoughts are with these brave souls flying into this storm, I read the account of a recon with Irma (I think) that almost took them
down. Pretty f'ing scary!!!!

I was just thinking about that. I sure don't envy those folks flying into that beast. They know their stuff though, they will be fine. Punching through that eyewall will be intense for sure.

[sicktght311]

I'm going with recon finding 125kt and 922mb. Recon should be starting their descent here shortly...just passed 55w

My thoughts are with these brave souls flying into this storm, I read the account of a recon with Irma (I think) that almost took them
down. Pretty f'ing scary!!!!

That was Ian last year. Multiple on board said it was the worst they’ve ever experienced and i think the plane suffered some slight damage too

[Landy]

[Abdullah]

Slowing down a bit but still there

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExOXBtczBjYmFiZW40MXYxeHgwcmhsZHcweTFvM3J4aWt5MGtqYXFoMyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/yuXcnHQLSdEjXpOXq9/giphy.gif

Where can I find this GIF?

It's from WeatherNerds

Yeah, I checked the site.
I believe it's behind a paywall, unfortunately.

Anyone know of other free resources?

[InfernoFlameCat]

This storm rapidly intensified in a different way than Jova. It opened its eye earlier on. I find it fascinating how different storms rapidly intensify in their own unique way.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm going with recon finding 125kt and 922mb. Recon should be starting their descent here shortly...just passed 55w

My thoughts are with these brave souls flying into this storm, I read the account of a recon with Irma (I think) that almost took them
down. Pretty f'ing scary!!!!

I was just thinking about that. I sure don't envy those folks flying into that beast. They know their stuff though, they will be fine. Punching through that eyewall will be intense for sure.

They must have stomachs of steel ...I can't even ride roller coasters due to the motion.

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/mikefischerwx/status/1699917569413533762

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon has made their descent down to 10,000ft. Wont be long now.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/mikefischerwx/status/1699917569413533762

That partial band in the NE quad might try to wrap around. Maybe we’ll see an eyewall meld later tomorrow or Saturday, comparable to what the HAFS models have been showing.

[hipshot]

My thoughts are with these brave souls flying into this storm, I read the account of a recon with Irma (I think) that almost took them
down. Pretty f'ing scary!!!!

I was just thinking about that. I sure don't envy those folks flying into that beast. They know their stuff though, they will be fine. Punching through that eyewall will be intense for sure.

They must have stomachs of steel ...I can't even ride roller coasters due to the motion.

I've flown on P3's for over 2 years in the Navy but never had to experience that. That aircraft is very stiff winged and bounces easily in
even moderate turbulence, I can't imagine what it would be like in something like this.!!!!!

[Beef Stew]

Alright folks, time to get those guesses in... what's recon about to find?

Since I always seem to overestimate these "what will recon find" predictions, I'm going with a conservative 120 kts and 941 mb- with the only rational being the winds haven't caught up to the structure yet- but they will by morning...

[abajan]

I'm going with recon finding 125kt and 922mb. Recon should be starting their descent here shortly...just passed 55w

My thoughts are with these brave souls flying into this storm, I read the account of a recon with Irma (I think) that almost took them
down. Pretty f'ing scary!!!!

Unfortunately, one of the recon missions into Janet in '55 didn't turn out that way.