ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ubuntwo]

Has the issue with SFMR inflation at high intensities been resolved yet? I seem to recall that some time after the 2021 season, there was a study or report stating that SFMR has been "fixed' following recent research.

If that's the case, it will increase the reliability of SFMR readings here.

Yes, the SFMR algorithm was revamped coming into the 2022 hurricane season.

[Iceresistance]

Adjusted ADT now at a 6.6

[Ntxw]

This is certainly a historic evening, like last. I was hoping both Lee and Jova would be CAT5s at the same time but no dice. I'm anticipating how fast Lee's pressure is dropping between passes and this contracting of the eye - a sign of a Jova-like eye coming? It would be strange for a ERC this fast in the middle of EI (Wilma's more precarious pinhole eye lasted longer which is far more unstable than Lee's core).

They're actually intensifying in a different way. Jova was colder core and small eye (but warm) in larger envelope that remained small. The coming ERC for Lee will make it larger and expand windfield.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1699947756360511935

[sikkar]

Structural symmetry appears to be taking a hit or simply reorganizing?

[ThunderForce]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/G3XM0cHM/4546-E463-FD0-A-4946-97-DB-CD52-F95-EDAAF.jpg [/url]

the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands.
There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential
impacts a week or more out.

Ok, models are overwhelmingly making a N turn well N of the NE Caribbean. The NHC cone hints a slight WNW bend at day 5. The uncertainty has to be will in turn N at 66W or 70W? Not sure what would make the NHC make that statement??

I'm assuming it's because the projected northward turn is over 5 days away on a good bit of the global models right now. On GFS 18z, ECMWF/Euro 12z and CMC 12z, it begins to finally turn northward at 12z Wednesday 13th, which is 6 days away.

5-6 days isn't quite as far away as a week or more would be, but that still has a larger track error than more short term forecasts like a 3 day forecast would. Margot's track and evolution shifts between runs too, and could play a part in where Lee goes as well since it seems Lee could be affected by Margot if Margot ends up closer to Lee rather than farther.

[WalterWhite]

We will see what the NW to SE quadrant pass finds. Will it find flight-level winds above 152 knots?

[GCANE]

IR shows a big mesovort forming on the SW eyewall

[aspen]

AL, 13, 2023090800, , BEST, 0, 170N, 518W, 135, 933, HU,

A fair, if slightly conservative, estimate. Odds are they’ll go 5-10 kt higher in the official advisory.

[Iceresistance]

IR shows a big mesovort forming on the SW eyewall

What does that mean? Increasing chances of EWRC?

[ElectricStorm]

AL, 13, 2023090800, , BEST, 0, 170N, 518W, 135, 933, HU,

A fair, if slightly conservative, estimate. Odds are they’ll go 5-10 kt higher in the official advisory.

Probably needs a little higher FL winds to get an upgrade but it'll probably be there by advisory time

[kronotsky]

The eye has shrunk by something like 30-40% over the last several hours.

[GCANE]

IR shows a big mesovort forming on the SW eyewall

What does that mean? Increasing chances of EWRC?

Yes

[kronotsky]

IR shows a big mesovort forming on the SW eyewall

Those vorts have been showing up through pretty much this entire intensification phase, fwiw. Easier to see now because the eye is smaller.

[Craters]

I'm going with recon finding 125kt and 922mb. Recon should be starting their descent here shortly...just passed 55w

My thoughts are with these brave souls flying into this storm, I read the account of a recon with Irma (I think) that almost took them
down. Pretty f'ing scary!!!!

Unfortunately, one of the recon missions into Janet in '55 didn't turn out that way.

Weren't they using B-17's back then?

[dukeblue219]

Weren't they using B-17's back then?

The Janet crash was a P-2 from the Navy, actually.

[WalterWhite]

This NW-SE pass is already looking much stronger than the SW-NE pass.

[GCANE]

4 towers south and west of the CoC.
Maybe forming an outer eyewall

[Iceresistance]

Recon will tell us the truth if there is a sign of an EWRC with a double wind maxima.

A shrinking eye could mean deepening at a quicker pace.

[eastcoastFL]

Off-hand, the only storm that I can think of that blew up quite as quickly as Lee did was Maria.

Wilma