2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Category5Kaiju]

What I find interesting is it seems like this moderate classical El Nino combined with a very warm Atlantic is actually causing every NHEM basin to perform quite well. Jova explosively intensified into a Category 5 (the EPAC's first since 2018), and the EPAC now has had 5 major hurricanes (with more likely to occur down the line). The WPAC has had an abundance of major typhoons, from Mawar to Doksuri to Khanun to Saola. And the Atlantic speaks for itself, with a high-end, open ocean Category 4 Franklin and a low-end Category 4 Idalia making landfall in the Gulf Coast. Not to mention Lee and future Margot (the former of which is expected to become a powerful hurricane - we can talk about the Lee/Jova rivalry later ).

So while the EPAC and WPAC are behaving very Nino-ishly, the Atlantic is also performing abnormally better than what would be expected given the ENSO background.

[hurricanes1234]

What I find interesting is it seems like this moderate classical El Nino combined with a very warm Atlantic is actually causing every NHEM basin to perform quite well. Jova explosively intensified into a Category 5 (the EPAC's first since 2018), and the EPAC now has had 5 major hurricanes (with more likely to occur down the line). The WPAC has had an abundance of major typhoons, from Mawar to Doksuri to Khanun to Saola. And the Atlantic speaks for itself, with a high-end, open ocean Category 4 Franklin and a low-end Category 4 Idalia making landfall in the Gulf Coast. Not to mention Lee and future Margot (the former of which is expected to become a powerful hurricane - we can talk about the Lee/Jova rivalry later ).

So while the EPAC and WPAC are behaving very Nino-ishly, the Atlantic is also performing abnormally better than what would be expected given the ENSO background.

True, the Northern Hemisphere so far this year is reminding me a lot of 2018, a year with all basins having notable activity and multiple strong storms.

[CyclonicFury]

And this is why you can't just assume the MDR will be shut down all year because of climo dry air shutting it down in July/early August.

With record warm SSTs, near-slightly below normal shear and above normal moisture, it was only a matter of time before the MDR got going.

[Emmett_Brown]

Just a back yard observation about the pattern so far on the west coast of Florida this year; I have lived in Florida for over 40 years, and I can't remember any summer like this. We simply have had no rainy season of any kind. No afternoon thunder... just endless heat wave conditions save the cool rainy respite we saw as Idalia recently passed to our north. Afternoon storms have been forming, but they all head inland to the east coast. I certainly remember some dry summers, but nothing that approaches this. I only bring it up to underscore how persistent the east coast troughing has been, and how absent the usual easterly flow is. If FL gets another threat this year, it will probably be from the Western Caribbean or E GOM, assuming the pattern doesn't change.

[mantis83]

does the nhc still use the FSSE model? just wondering since i don't see them mention it at all anymore in their discussions

[Category5Kaiju]

And this is why you can't just assume the MDR will be shut down all year because of climo dry air shutting it down in July/early August.

With record warm SSTs, near-slightly below normal shear and above normal moisture, it was only a matter of time before the MDR got going.

Especially after what has happened this year, the minute I see a "season cancel" or "dead MDR" post in late July/early August is the minute I view that post as worthy of being thrown into the fiery pits of Hades.

[ThunderForce]

It's pretty hard to believe we supposedly have a developing El Nino this year with all the low shear, super-high SSTs and little SAL. If I didn't know any better I'd have thought this was yet another La Nina year, and so far it feels like this season is actually having more activity so far than some La Nina years I've seen.

[LarryWx]

What I find interesting is it seems like this moderate classical El Nino combined with a very warm Atlantic is actually causing every NHEM basin to perform quite well. Jova explosively intensified into a Category 5 (the EPAC's first since 2018), and the EPAC now has had 5 major hurricanes (with more likely to occur down the line). The WPAC has had an abundance of major typhoons, from Mawar to Doksuri to Khanun to Saola. And the Atlantic speaks for itself, with a high-end, open ocean Category 4 Franklin and a low-end Category 4 Idalia making landfall in the Gulf Coast. Not to mention Lee and future Margot (the former of which is expected to become a powerful hurricane - we can talk about the Lee/Jova rivalry later ).

So while the EPAC and WPAC are behaving very Nino-ishly, the Atlantic is also performing abnormally better than what would be expected given the ENSO background.

Global warming

[zzzh]

Note that though Nino SSTA is close to record high, the atmosphere is still warm neutral.

[IcyTundra]

Well the 2023 season should pass 2022 in ACE sometime next week.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/weatherffolkes/status/1699981006122479829




Damn.

[Woofde]

Needless to say this season has absolutely not acted like an El nino thus far at all. 3 major hurricanes in, and we have a potential record beater in Lee. I'm doubtful of the season dropping off late despite the nino. There's just wayyy too much anomalous warmth out there, even with Lee's probable large cool wake. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see an extended MDR season with the Carribean and Gulf kicking in October as we've seen in recent years.

[Category5Kaiju]

Needless to say this season has absolutely not acted like an El nino thus far at all. 3 major hurricanes in, and we have a potential record beater in Lee. I'm doubtful of the season dropping off late despite the nino. There's just wayyy too much anomalous warmth out there, even with Lee's probable large cool wake. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see an extended MDR season with the Carribean and Gulf kicking in October as we've seen in recent years.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230908/897bfbda0d7c9d7140163afa3330df41.jpg

Yeah I agree with you. I know there's been a lot of talk, especially early on this season, about how October and beyond should be dead quiet (I myself thought something similar as well), but I think we're definitely seeing how absurdly warm ssts like that indeed have the power to win over El Nino's effects. Heck, I would say that we could potentially see a major hurricane or two during the October-November timeframe before this season truly ends.

[Deshaunrob17]

Needless to say this season has absolutely not acted like an El nino thus far at all. 3 major hurricanes in, and we have a potential record beater in Lee. I'm doubtful of the season dropping off late despite the nino. There's just wayyy too much anomalous warmth out there, even with Lee's probable large cool wake. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see an extended MDR season with the Carribean and Gulf kicking in October as we've seen in recent years.[url]https://uploads.tapatalk-
I've been saying this.. October is concerning because of the very warm waters. Everything shifts West in October. Of El Nino wouldn't shut things down then we may see several
Rapidly intensifying storms like 2020. However El Momo shear seems to be capping the gulf
cdn.com/20230908/897bfbda0d7c9d7140163afa3330df41.jpg[/url]

Yeah I agree with you. I know there's been a lot of talk, especially early on this season, about how October and beyond should be dead quiet (I myself thought something similar as well), but I think we're definitely seeing how absurdly warm ssts like that indeed have the power to win over El Nino's effects. Heck, I would say that we could potentially see a major hurricane or two during the October-November timeframe before this season truly ends.

[HurricaneEnzo]

It's pretty hard to believe we supposedly have a developing El Nino this year with all the low shear, super-high SSTs and little SAL. If I didn't know any better I'd have thought this was yet another La Nina year, and so far it feels like this season is actually having more activity so far than some La Nina years I've seen.

Yeah as I understand it at least the atmosphere hasn't really been able to couple and cause the El Nino patterns we are use to seeing.

I'm curious if a record warm Atlantic is somehow causing a delay in this or is there other factors in play. Definitely a pretty unique event we are witnessing.

[Steve]

Needless to say this season has absolutely not acted like an El nino thus far at all. 3 major hurricanes in, and we have a potential record beater in Lee. I'm doubtful of the season dropping off late despite the nino. There's just wayyy too much anomalous warmth out there, even with Lee's probable large cool wake. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see an extended MDR season with the Carribean and Gulf kicking in October as we've seen in recent years.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230908/897bfbda0d7c9d7140163afa3330df41.jpg

Yeah I agree with you. I know there's been a lot of talk, especially early on this season, about how October and beyond should be dead quiet (I myself thought something similar as well), but I think we're definitely seeing how absurdly warm ssts like that indeed have the power to win over El Nino's effects. Heck, I would say that we could potentially see a major hurricane or two during the October-November timeframe before this season truly ends.

There was a lot of talk about a lot of things since we were entering a season that was uncharted territory with the sea surface temperatures and anomalies. I think most people thought that we'd still have a fairly active season (particularly for an El Nino) but many were also cautious about the predictions since we didn't know what all was going to happen. Turns out the open Atlantic has been the so-called hotspot thus far and should remain that way for the next few weeks. But after that who knows? Gulf and Caribbean could see a couple of fall systems or hybrids if they remain mostly untapped. We might not ever see hurricane enhancement/suppression factors line up like they did for 2023 again. But we'll have a good idea not to downplay a super hot Atlantic whenever there is a season featuring one. And we'll still get to find out what happens to close that kind of season in a moderate-to-strong El Nino.

[Hammy]

I think it's safe to say at this point that having June MDR storms remains an indicator of a more favorable than normal MDR season-wide.

[weeniepatrol]

With three majors, 2023 becomes the first moderate-strong El Nino season with >2 majors.

On today's date, 8 September, the season is only 45% through in terms of ACE. The average seasonal ACE for moderate to strong el Nino years is 52 units. We stand at 68.5 units, or 131% of this average, with 55% of the season remaining.

Edit: 62.5->68.5 and 120%->131%.

[cycloneye]

With three majors, 2023 becomes the first moderate-strong El Nino season with >2 majors.

On today's date, 8 September, the season is only 45% through in terms of ACE. The average seasonal ACE for moderate to strong el Nino years is 52 units. We stand at 62.5 units, or 120% of this average, with 55% of the season remaining.

Is 68.5 for North Atlantic.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

[weeniepatrol]

With three majors, 2023 becomes the first moderate-strong El Nino season with >2 majors.

On today's date, 8 September, the season is only 45% through in terms of ACE. The average seasonal ACE for moderate to strong el Nino years is 52 units. We stand at 62.5 units, or 120% of this average, with 55% of the season remaining.

Is 68.5 for North Atlantic.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

Thank you for the correction, cycloneye. Was looking at yesterday's numbers!