ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Thank goodness Lee will most likely stay away from land at this crazy intensity…

[WalterWhite]

The SE quadrant does not appear to be particularly impressive from the recon data.

[eastcoastFL]

Here is the chart
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgX8Q.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgX8Q.png

The rain rate is nuts too

[aspen]

Looks like they got a secondary wind max outbound.

It’s really really close to the primary max, so I think we’re going to see an Irma-like eyewall meld, something that the hurricane models have been showing for a while. Just a lot earlier than they modeled.

[SconnieCane]

So, @GCANE you were saying it's still not perfectly positioned relative to the ULAC? And it's STILL intensifying like this?

[aspen]

Eye is getting ragged on IR. Looks like an eyewall meld is starting. If it’s like Irma, we should see this continue to explode during tomorrow morning’s flights.

[GCANE]

So, @GCANE you were saying it's still not perfectly positioned relative to the ULAC? And it's STILL intensifying like this?

Its crazy

[zzzh]

Drop 930mb 20kt

[WalterWhite]

Honestly, what is up with the large discrepancy between the FL estimate (130 kt when adjusted by 90%) and the SMFR estimate (155 kt)?

[eastcoastFL]

Eye is getting ragged on IR. Looks like an eyewall meld is starting. If it’s like Irma, we should see this continue to explode during tomorrow morning’s flights.

What is an eye meld?

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop supports 928mb, about a 5mb drop since last pass

[GCANE]

Eye drop
58% RH at 850 mb
Drying out fast

[SconnieCane]

Eye is getting ragged on IR. Looks like an eyewall meld is starting. If it’s like Irma, we should see this continue to explode during tomorrow morning’s flights.

What is an eye meld?

Where a formative outer eyewall just kind of gets fused into the old inner one instead of constricting around it and gradually choking it off like in a standard EWRC. Thus the usual (sometimes temporary, sometimes not) decrease in maximum intensity normally seen with an EWRC is less pronounced or non-existent.

[lajga]

EWRC question made prior reply is it can take up to 18 hours per what I understand. It is also my understanding the worry of an EWRC expands the distance of the wind field that many worry about. Although an EWRC usually causes a weakening while going through it, it is also my understanding that once complete, a favorable environment can cause it to grow even bigger and stronger once again. I am of the understanding it can go through more than one EWRC too. Am I correct in my understanding?

[Blown Away]

Looks like they got a secondary wind max outbound.

It’s really really close to the primary max, so I think we’re going to see an Irma-like eyewall meld, something that the hurricane models have been showing for a while. Just a lot earlier than they modeled.

Looks like a W wobble to.

[SconnieCane]

EWRC question made prior reply is it can take up to 18 hours per what I understand. It is also my understanding the worry of an EWRC expands the distance of the wind field that many worry about. Although an EWRC usually causes a weakening while going through it, it is also my understanding that once complete, a favorable environment can cause it to grow even bigger and stronger once again. I am of the understanding it can go through more than one EWRC too. Am I correct in my understanding?

Yes, that all sounds about right.

[aspen]

This pass supports 145 kt/928 mbar. Easy Cat 5.

[GCANE]

Eye drop
58% RH at 850 mb
Drying out fast

Can see the drying on all levels of WV Rapid Scan

[CrazyC83]

Drop 930mb 20kt

5 mb pressure drop in about 2 hours.

[CrazyC83]

It's a very warm eye too with a surface air temperature of 27.2°C in the eye of Lee.

What is the warmest eye ever in an Atlantic storm?