ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

Based on satellite it doesn’t look like an ERC but more of an eyewall meld which will also expand the wind field but could keep strengthening

[InfernoFlameCat]

It's a very warm eye too with a surface air temperature of 27.2°C in the eye of Lee.

What is the warmest eye ever in an Atlantic storm?

makes me wanna go swim in that eye.

[kronotsky]

Honestly, what is up with the large discrepancy between the FL estimate (130 kt when adjusted by 90%) and the SMFR estimate (155 kt)?

The 90% reduction rule is kind of meaningless for a specific storm; it's just an empirical average. Friction means that boundary layer winds should be slower than max winds aloft, but the exact conversation rate depends on a lot of factors and isn't particularly well understood. For example, we've seen a couple of recent MDR monsters (Irma and Dorian) with this same pattern: very warm eye, cold but not super cold cloud tops, SFMR roughly the same or higher than FL winds. Who knows what dynamics are at play -- but it isn't clear that the 90% rule is right in cases like this.

Of course, you have to trust the SFMR to give reliable readings at high wind speeds in the first place... But open ocean is where it should be best, since there's less going on at the ocean/air interface than in shallow or coastal seas.

[ConvergenceZone]

So glad that Lee's path is SO FAR expected not to have any impact to the USA mainland. In spite of all of these out to sea storms, I do think there will be another one that threatens the USA before the season ends. We'll just have to wait and see of course.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon and satellite appearance does seem to support some users belief that Lee is about to/going through an EWRC. However, the continued intensification points to that EWRC being similar to the ones Irma went through.

[GCANE]

936 to 930 mb

[CrazyC83]

936 to 930 mb

Actually 933 to 928 when adjusted for the surface winds in the dropsonde.

[kronotsky]

936 to 930 mb

Actually 933 to 928 when adjusted for the surface winds in the dropsonde.

Definitely, but I think maybe GCANE is quoting the VDM numbers?

[FrontRunner]

Anyone got a good guess for how many more eye passes we'll get on this flight given how far out they are?

[Iceresistance]

VDM at 930 mb, Eye is still a C15.

[zzzh]

Anyone got a good guess for how many more eye passes we'll get on this flight given how far out they are?

2

[Coolcruiseman]

It certainly seems that tonight Lee is moving into a league of its own with this RI.

[kronotsky]

Anyone got a good guess for how many more eye passes we'll get on this flight given how far out they are?

Given that they're on the wrong side of the storm, we'll get at least one more. Not confident about getting two, though.

[eastcoastFL]

It's a very warm eye too with a surface air temperature of 27.2°C in the eye of Lee.

What is the warmest eye ever in an Atlantic storm?

makes me wanna go swim in that eye.

I did that during the eye of Wilma. I don’t suggest it. I was just getting pieces of my outdoor sink out of the pool. The pressure popped it out and tossed it in the pool.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

EWRC question made prior reply is it can take up to 18 hours per what I understand. It is also my understanding the worry of an EWRC expands the distance of the wind field that many worry about. Although an EWRC usually causes a weakening while going through it, it is also my understanding that once complete, a favorable environment can cause it to grow even bigger and stronger once again. I am of the understanding it can go through more than one EWRC too. Am I correct in my understanding?

Also, it increases the storm surge quite a bit. Stronger surge near the eye and away from the eye.

[Sciencerocks]

[Ianswfl]

Just how accurate is SFMR is the question?

After Katrina during the great intensity debate before the final report I emailed Stacy Stewart for his take on Katrina's intensity. He sent me a VERY LONG and DETAILED email with his opinion. Must taken him a couple hours to write. He was skeptical of SFMR back in 2005 and he though Katrina was still a cat4 at landfall. Remmeber SFMR was weaker than flight level winds reduced at landfall.

I miss him! I would have loved to read his discussions as Ian was hitting last year!

[canebeard]

What makes this even more historic is where Lee did this in the atlantic basin this far out.

Hugo at 918 mb at longitude 56, in a very similar location in 1989--dropped from 990 mb the day before==VHS frame grabs below

[imgur][/imgur]
[imgur][/imgur]

[Iceresistance]

I need to go to bed, I don't know what I will wake up to tomorrow morning...

[PavelGaborik10]

Tops have warmed some on the western side over the last hour or so.