ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

155 kt peak forecasted

[zzzh]

and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement.
In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a
secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below
climatology.

[Hurricane2022]

Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak intensity between 170-180 kt, but that's getting into rarefied air.

[ElectricStorm]

Discussion says no EWRC imminent

[CryHavoc]

Cat 5!

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 52.4W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES

Simply astonishing.

[HurricaneBelle]

and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement.
In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a
secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below
climatology.

This is going to drive the EWRC people crazy.

[Craters]

It's a very warm eye too with a surface air temperature of 27.2°C in the eye of Lee.

What is the warmest eye ever in an Atlantic storm?

makes me wanna go swim in that eye.

Okay. Just be careful and be back in time for breakfast.

[PavelGaborik10]

Historic storm here folks.

[galaxy401]

Wow never seen a 180 mph forecast even with Cat 5 hurricanes.

[zzzh]

Lee is now the strongest Atlantic storm in strong El Nino years as it becomes Cat. 5.

[CryHavoc]

and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement.
In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a
secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below
climatology.

Dozens of people on this forum just screamed simultaneously.

[zzzh]

Chachondo23 their may be some shear and dry air, but its still a favorable environment, and the GFS has a biacy to overdue both sometimes, hence its a model that cannot be trusted right now given how its shown no consistency at all every run with this system

The Euro also keeps it weak in the MDR. I think the models realized it’s El Niño (even though it hasn’t been acting like that) and adjusted so. A Cat 5 is pretty much out of the question, and perhaps a Cat 4 is unlikely as well.

And just 5 days later

[MarioProtVI]

Holy sh!t. They actually did it. An actual Cat 5 correctly predicted????? God damn. The peak too is insane!

[REDHurricane]

Cat 5!

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 52.4W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES

Exactly 24 hours ago Lee was upgraded from a tropical storm to a hurricane (65kt/75mph, 991mb)... that's a 75kt/85mph increase and 63mb pressure drop in one day!

[Category5Kaiju]

Chachondo23 their may be some shear and dry air, but its still a favorable environment, and the GFS has a biacy to overdue both sometimes, hence its a model that cannot be trusted right now given how its shown no consistency at all every run with this system

The Euro also keeps it weak in the MDR. I think the models realized it’s El Niño (even though it hasn’t been acting like that) and adjusted so. A Cat 5 is pretty much out of the question, and perhaps a Cat 4 is unlikely as well.

And just 5 days later

Yeah, in no way do I mean any offense against Mario...but

This is why laser-focusing on one model run isn't necessarily reflective of the entire picture.

[CronkPSU]

The NHC track forecast remains of high
confidence through day 5, and again, no significant changes were
required from the previous forecast. Although there are some
indications that Lee might begin a northward turn around the middle
of next week, it is still way to soon to focus on specific model
scenarios that far out into the future...
3.It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning Sunday. Continue to monitor updates to Lee's
forecast during the next several days.

seems to still be hedging their bets about when that Northern turn will happen

[aspen]

I would’ve gone with 145 kt but whatever. First operational (and not downgraded) Cat 5 since Lorenzo ‘19.

[CrazyC83]

I think we'll eat a lot of crow if this can get up to 200 mph or greater like the models say. That said, I'd want to see colder cloud tops. But if this can close off a CDG ring?

[cheezyWXguy]

and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement.
In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a
secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below
climatology.

Dozens of people on this forum just screamed simultaneously.

REEEE

Nah, to be fair there are some cues in satellite imagery that would tend to signal it, but they don’t seem to hold significance in this case. Lee will need to cool those cloud tops again if it’s going reach 155kt+ though

[chaser1]

and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement.
In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a
secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below
climatology.

This is going to drive the EWRC people crazy.

True , fortunately they still have wobble-watching to occupy them. Heck, you watch.... people will swear Lee started moving south or even east before sun-up