ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok, now I do have one question:

Compared to Sam, does Lee have more convincing evidence of a Category 5 peak? What was it about Sam that caused it to fall short? I recall many calls of Sam reaching Category 5, which did not happen.

[Weather Watcher]

Typhoon Judy had the warmest eye 93.2 F

[BobHarlem]

"Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak
intensity between 170-180 kt, but that's getting into rarefied air.
The NHC forecast will be adjusted accordingly if those solutions
begin looking like a more distinct possibility."

They are thinking the 180mph forecast may be too low, but waiting to see on that. 190-205mph is pretty insane though.

[IsabelaWeather]

I just have to LOL. These threads always chime in about something when there isnt any data.
Strong storms its always a EWRC. So far there is no data to suggest one, last MW showed no evidence of one, yet its popped up so many times already. There will probably be one, but lets wait until there is legit evidence to show one.

The data shows the odds of an impending EWRC are increasing. I haven’t heard anyone say they’ve spotted one though.

Again, what data? You guys see what you WANT to see.

...and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement.
In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a
secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below
climatology.

- From NHC 11PM Disco

[PavelGaborik10]

I think we'll eat a lot of crow if this can get up to 200 mph or greater like the models say. That said, I'd want to see colder cloud tops. But if this can close off a CDG ring?

I feel like he'll always lack the colder cloud tops of the majority of storms considering his current position, that doesn't mean winds can't hur 180 or near.

[Ianswfl]

NHC kinda sounding unsure of after day 5 when it slows down does it go north or what.

[BobHarlem]

NHC kinda sounding unsure of after day 5 when it slows down does it go north or what.

12z models tomorrow will have the recon data. 0z is based on the best track estimate from earlier.

[SconnieCane]

Lee is forecast to remain a dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane for the
next 5 days.

Ho-LEE ACE, Batman!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Lee is forecast to remain a dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane for the
next 5 days.

Ho-LEE ACE, Batman!

Will easily climb an ACE total similar to Irma.

[IsabelaWeather]

The Euro also keeps it weak in the MDR. I think the models realized it’s El Niño (even though it hasn’t been acting like that) and adjusted so. A Cat 5 is pretty much out of the question, and perhaps a Cat 4 is unlikely as well.

And just 5 days later

Yeah, in no way do I mean any offense against Mario...but

This is why laser-focusing on one model run isn't necessarily reflective of the entire picture.

Seems crazy to me to say it wouldnt happen when there was legit nothing in it way.

[CaribJam]

What is the possible impact from Hurricane Lee on southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands?

[zzzh]

925.3mb extrap

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The NHC has gotten noticeably better at prediction rapid intensification episodes.

Lee, Idalia, and Franklin were all accurately predicted well in advance.

[canebeard]

Hurricane Donna 1960, when a mid level ridge axis set up just to its north, turned westward and crept along at 8 mph for almost 3 days north of the Greater Antilles. Relevant here? Not likely. But-

[aspen]

Ok, now I do have one question:

Compared to Sam, does Lee have more convincing evidence of a Category 5 peak? What was it about Sam that caused it to fall short? I recall many calls of Sam reaching Category 5, which did not happen.

Morning recon for Sam was cancelled without explanation, so they missed its peak when it sure looked like a 5 and found a 135 kt Cat 4 starting an EWRC when they arrived that night. By extrapolating Sam’s filling rate, it seems likely it peaked as a 5 when recon wasn’t there. We got lucky with Lee and had a perfectly timed recon flight to capture its Cat 5 peak.

[Meteorcane]

What is the possible impact from Hurricane Lee on southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands?

This is a very good question, the most probable scenario is no direct impacts but obviously rough seas, high surfs, and rip currents are going to be an issue. Fortunately not only is the subtropical high unlikely to be established too far west (enabling the beginning of a northward turn), A SW-NE oriented ridge is beginning to nose into the vicinity of the Bahamas/Cuba in the medium range. This feature will act to really hinder any additional westward movement until Lee reaches the western periphery of the subtropical high and begins to gain more latitude.

All that being said, this is still a day 4-5 forecast and some ensemble members do get close enough to the region for there to be some concern of a direct impact so I do thing anyone in that region should be on guard, as unlike locations further north (Bermuda, NE US, Canada) Lee would likely be near peak intensity in that vicinity.

[Meteorcane]

The NHC has gotten noticeably better at prediction rapid intensification episodes.

Lee, Idalia, and Franklin were all accurately predicted well in advance.

Yeah, definitely an improved understanding from a science standpoint and increased experience from the mets at NHC. Additionally, the higher resolution hurricane models have also gotten to the point where they can actually be utilized to give a realistic upper bound (unlike the old versions of the HMON which was basically just there for laughs) for RI episodes which can give the forecasters more confidence than they had in earlier errors (where at best you were going off large scale environmental trends and broad statistical guidance like SHIPS).

[IsabelaWeather]

And just 5 days later

Yeah, in no way do I mean any offense against Mario...but

This is why laser-focusing on one model run isn't necessarily reflective of the entire picture.

IMO, it's more about "don't bet against RI with bathwater temps in the era of climate change".

Lee isn't even going over the warmest waters in the Atlantic right now, that's the Caribbean (as usual).

Portends ominous things for the coming decades and hurricane strength.

I wouldnt say "because of climate change", you could have very warm waters and nothing else and you wouldnt get a hurricane. There was not really anything modeled that was bad for the storm.

[edu2703]

NHC kinda sounding unsure of after day 5 when it slows down does it go north or what.

Yeah, it's not very reasuring not to have confidence in the north turn. Hopefully, future model runs will already have the recon data injected and we'll have a better picture of where Lee might go.

[ElectricStorm]

New towers going up on the west side