ATL: LEE - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

The spread on the 00z GEFS has gotten considerably larger at hour 168. So much so that perhaps even South Carolina is in play. We’ve got a long way to go with this one.


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The general rule always used to be that wherever the landfall is 6-10+ days out, that’s usually not where it’s going. So those kind of shifts would not shock me.

Yeah, that was, and possibly still is the rule. The best place to be 6 to 10 days out is right in the bullseye. We still have much to learn about a science that is constantly in motion. Can anyone say chaos theory.


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[ColdMiser123]

CMC shifts west and landfalls near Jonesport, Maine.

[Ianswfl]

CMC shifts west and landfalls near Jonesport, Maine.

Going to bed but hfas a hfas b running and so far way more south. Hwrf just started and a smidge south as well so far.

[RevanTheJedi96]

CMC shifts west and landfalls near Jonesport, Maine.

This Western shift is getting really scary. Maine can't handle a storm like this at all...

[Craters]

CMC shifts west and landfalls near Jonesport, Maine.

This Western shift is getting really scary. Maine can't handle a storm like this at all...

No, but it almost certainly won't be a storm "like this" by the time it gets there, if it does.

[RevanTheJedi96]

CMC shifts west and landfalls near Jonesport, Maine.

This Western shift is getting really scary. Maine can't handle a storm like this at all...

No, but it almost certainly won't be a storm "like this" by the time it gets there, if it does.

Right but we're talking about a region that gets shut down by a bad tropical storm.

[PavelGaborik10]

Trough is substantially stronger, ridge digging significantly less at hour 120 on the Euro.

Not sure what's going to happen from here, but it's clearly having a tough time with the pattern.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro STILL has Lee to the SE of Florida next Thursday

[PavelGaborik10]

Euro has this thing still farting around in the Atlantic 7 days from now, nowhere near anybody.

Has little Marg substationally stronger and rapidly eroding the ridge at 168 hours, could very well pull Lee further E this run, trough is also slower though, so we'll see.

[LarryWx]

Euro has this thing still farting around in the Atlantic 7 days from now, nowhere near anybody.

Has little Marg substationally stronger and rapidly eroding the ridge at 168 hours, could very well pull Lee further E this run, trough is also slower though, so we'll see.

At 168 of the 0Z Euro, Margot is 200 miles W of its 12Z 180 position while Lee is 200 miles S of its 12Z 180 location.

[RevanTheJedi96]

I think after this latest Euro run New England should breath a huge sigh of relief.

[PavelGaborik10]

The Euro just shifted little Marg from nearing Portugal to near Atlantic Canada in the span of one run at the 7 day mark.

Needless to say this has massive implications on the track of Lee, which also shifted hundreds upon hundreds of miles.

The Euro is....not doing well here.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1700036563176948172




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1700038744122819029




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1700040196165718309

[PavelGaborik10]

Lee may very well be outdone by the historically bad performance from the Euro.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Lee may very well be outdone by the historically bad performance from the Euro.

These runs are getting really goofy at the end I cannot lie.

[Teban54]

Lol, 0z GFS, ECMWF and CMC initialized Lee at 968, 983 and 996 mb respectively

[RevanTheJedi96]

Lee may very well be outdone by the historically bad performance from the Euro.

These runs are getting really goofy at the end I cannot lie.

I like the end result of these runs if it keeps Lee off the East Coast!

[LarryWx]

Lol, 0z GFS, ECMWF and CMC initialized Lee at 968, 983 and 996 mb respectively

And ironically, the 0Z UKMET initialized Lee way down at 941 mb! But then 12 hours later the SLP rose way up to 967! This run is pretty similar to the 12Z run with a recurve near 70W:


HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 51.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2023 0 17.1N 51.8W 941 110
1200UTC 08.09.2023 12 17.9N 53.9W 967 77
0000UTC 09.09.2023 24 19.2N 55.7W 969 81
1200UTC 09.09.2023 36 20.0N 57.7W 973 68
0000UTC 10.09.2023 48 20.8N 59.2W 970 65
1200UTC 10.09.2023 60 21.5N 60.8W 965 68
0000UTC 11.09.2023 72 22.3N 62.2W 961 74
1200UTC 11.09.2023 84 23.0N 64.0W 958 78
0000UTC 12.09.2023 96 23.6N 65.6W 952 84
1200UTC 12.09.2023 108 24.1N 67.3W 950 87
0000UTC 13.09.2023 120 24.3N 68.5W 944 87
1200UTC 13.09.2023 132 24.8N 69.5W 949 83
0000UTC 14.09.2023 144 25.9N 69.9W 944 94
1200UTC 14.09.2023 156 27.8N 70.3W 947 84
0000UTC 15.09.2023 168 29.7N 70.1W 944 75

[PavelGaborik10]

Lee may very well be outdone by the historically bad performance from the Euro.

These runs are getting really goofy at the end I cannot lie.

I like the end result of these runs if it keeps Lee off the East Coast!

Sure, but I csnt stand it from a forecasting standpoint.

This is downright embarrassing in 2023.

[Teban54]

0z hurricane models. All of them show Lee achieving a first peak within 6 hours from now, but the two HAFS models show a secondary peak in 1.5-2 days (after an EWRC) with even lower pressure.

HAFS-A:

• Init: 941.0 mb, 148.9 kt
• 6z (now): 920.1 mb, 161.9 kt (First peak)
• Second peak: 18z 9/9 (42 hrs), 910.3 mb, 157.0 kt

HAFS-B:

• Init: 939.5 mb, 132.7 kt
• 6z (now): 929.5 mb, 144.7 kt
• First peak: 12z 9.8 (12 hrs), 919.5 mb, 160.6 kt
• Second peak: 6z 9/10 (54 hrs), 912.7 mb, 154.4 kt

HWRF:

• Init: 933.8 mb, 150.4 kt
• 6z (now): 926.7 mb, 137.0 kt
• First and only peak: 12z 9.8 (12 hrs), 922.4 mb, 140.2 kt

HMON:

• Init: 932.5 mb, 123.1 kt
• 6z (now): 916.3 mb, 147.5 kt
• First peak: 9z 9.8 (9 hrs), 916.2 mb, 147.9 kt
• Second peak: 21z 9/10 (69 hrs), 928.0 mb, 131.8 kt