ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Looks like GCANE was right about shear from the displaced ULAC. Lee’s satellite appearance also reeks of an EWRC, but we’ll have to see what recon finds in a little bit. Not sure how much Lee will recover, if at all.

[GCANE]

Looks like GCANE was right about shear from the displaced ULAC. Lee’s satellite appearance also reeks of an EWRC, but we’ll have to see what recon finds in a little bit. Not sure how much Lee will recover, if at all.

Also, still no feeder band.
Just getting energy from the water.

[kevin]

The high shear area for Lee has peaked and is moving away now. Shear is now roughly 20 kt and was 26 kt 3 hours ago. Lee will probably be back in favorable (< 15 kt) shear later today, let's see if that's enough for it to get going again or whether the shear impact will trigger an EWRC or something like that.

[SconnieCane]

Looks like GCANE was right about shear from the displaced ULAC. Lee’s satellite appearance also reeks of an EWRC, but we’ll have to see what recon finds in a little bit. Not sure how much Lee will recover, if at all.

Is the ULAC still expected to become better positioned with the ideal outflow channels becoming (re)established? Because if I'm remembering the hurricane model runs correctly, the real peak wasn't supposed to take place until later in the day today through the weekend.

[aspen]

931.6mb extrap, ~105 kt FL and ~130 kt SFMR. It took a hit.

[underthwx]

If Lee can avoid direct landfall with any land, what a blessing that will be...

[GCANE]

Looks right on forecast track but weaker.

[Teban54]

931.6mb extrap, ~105 kt FL and ~130 kt SFMR. It took a hit.

Note that this is WSW of the eye, and the NW quad was the strongest during the last recon mission. While pressure did rise, I do expect to find stronger winds there.

There's also no double wind maxima despite IR looking like two hot towers rotating around that section of the eye.

[aspen]

931.6mb extrap, ~105 kt FL and ~130 kt SFMR. It took a hit.

Note that this is WSW of the eye, and the NW quad was the strongest during the last recon mission. While pressure did rise, I do expect to find stronger winds there.

There's also no double wind maxima despite IR looking like two hot towers rotating around that section of the eye.

NE quad only supports 120-125 kt now. There also seems to be a double maxima in the NE quad in FL winds and in the SW quad in SFMR.

[Nimbus]

Looks like we will have to wait a bit till Lee pulls his britches back up after his westward streak before we get to see the pentagram mesovorts in the eye.

[crimi481]

SAL MAP. Affecting Lee?
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... split.html

[Beef Stew]

Looks like shear took its toll on Lee last night. That being said, I still think that as shear abates, and after a possible EWRC occurs, Lee will have another explosive bout of intensification.

[dukeblue219]

Increasing shear has affected Hurricane #LEE's inner core, intensification has postponed and weakening is beginning. The northern rainband may trigger secondary eyewall formation when the shear is weakening temporarily. pic.twitter.com/jsGZHK4VMH
-- Ben (@zeb199818) September 8, 2023

Just posting this for the microwave, this guy seems to have a downcasting bias at least with Lee (as seen from his other tweets).

Is that a known, trusted poster? Something about the language used sounds like AI to me.

[kevin]

Extreme RI resulted in a 145 kt monster. Shear increased and has caused weakening in the last 4 hours with potentially an EWRC soon. Shear is slowly decreasing now so maybe another peak later on, but I think current recon will find a weaker Lee.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd peg Lee at 135 knots right now. The hottest waters Lee will face are still ahead of it.

[Iceresistance]

I'd peg Lee at 135 knots right now. The hottest waters Lee will face are still ahead of it.

The only way Lee can intensify further is when the shear abates.

[kevin]

I'd peg Lee at 135 knots right now. The hottest waters Lee will face are still ahead of it.

I think weakening has a been a bit more extreme, imo 120 kt. Once shear abates I expect another phase of RI though. The warmest waters are still ahead of it and almost all models peak Lee around the time it makes the turn north so the show is far from over.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1700106223851577801




Shear may prevent Lee from strengthening until tomorrow afternoon or evening.

[BobHarlem]

On IR satellite, Lee's eye seems to be fading out or being obscured right now. Probably the shear mentioned. My guess is it'll expand in size today and we'll see a much larger eye later today or tomorrow. Key to that will be how well the west side of the storm does (right now west and Northwest side is not symmetrical at all).

[kevin]

I expected the high shear would've reduced Lee to a low-end cat 4 or maybe even a 110 kt cat 3, but it's doing a little better than expected based on the NOAA3 pass. No intensification of course, but still a 930ish mb cat 4 with 130 kt SFMR and 126 kt FL winds. A blend would result in 120 kt.