ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

134 kt N eyewall 937 mb extrap. mslp

[kevin]

134 kt N eyewall 937 mb extrap. mslp

Probably sufficient for a 125 kt intensity together with the 130 kt SFMR.

[Tekken_Guy]

Will Lee return back to C5 later or is it done?

[Iceresistance]

Will Lee return back to C5 later or is it done?

It depends on the shear

[sikkar]

Looks like weakening has stopped for now.

[BobHarlem]

Will Lee return back to C5 later or is it done?

Doubt it's done, tomorrow evening/Sunday it'll probably get back up there again once the shear drops if not sooner than that, probably with a larger eye. Between intensity fluctuations, timing of a turn, and whatever Margot does, there's nothing easy about keeping up with what Lee will do.

[Tekken_Guy]

Will Lee return back to C5 later or is it done?

It depends on the shear

What do you mean?

[Hurricane2022]

Eye warming a bit in the latest frames

[kevin]

Probably dipped to roughly 120 kt due to shear, but looks like it's slowly improving and at least back to 125 kt based on recon. Idk for sure about the pressure increase between recon passes, because IR is no longer degrading. I'll wait for the next recon plane for more data.

[aspen]

Looks like weakening has stopped for now.

No, recon has found the pressure to have increased by several mbar between passes. It’s weakening quite significantly. I suspect Lee peaked in the low 920s/high 910s last night.

[MarioProtVI]

Looks like weakening has stopped for now.

No, recon has found the pressure to have increased by several mbar between passes. It’s weakening quite significantly. I suspect Lee peaked in the low 920s/high 910s last night.

It’s actually steady, the 928 VDM was an error since extrap corrected it. They prob hit a mesovort or something that took the pressure down

[dukeblue219]

Visible shows a hint of the eye clearing again if you look hard enough at the last 30 minutes...

[cycloneye]

Is weaker with pressure rising to 941 mbs per NOAA plane.

URNT12 KWBC 081208
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132023
A. 08/11:41:56Z
B. 17.88 deg N 054.05 deg W
C. NA
D. 941 mb
E. 165 deg 11 kt
F. CLOSED
G. E04/14/9
H. 121 kt
I. 349 deg 5 nm 11:40:37Z
J. 080 deg 134 kt
K. 353 deg 7 nm 11:40:07Z
L. 97 kt
M. 173 deg 9 nm 11:44:32Z
N. 254 deg 113 kt
O. 173 deg 8 nm 11:44:12Z
P. 15 C / 2450 m
Q. 26 C / 2445 m
R. 19 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA3 0313A LEE OB 15
MAX FL WIND 134 KT 353 / 7 NM 11:40:07Z

[kevin]

AF plane pass, 939.2 mb extrapolated with 17 kt wind. So probably around 937 - 938 mb, holding steady. 132 kt FL and 120 kt SFMR, blends to 120 kt.

[Deshaunrob17]

It's possible that last night was the peak. Shear reduces tomorrow but I won't be surprised if an EWRC happens this weekend. HWRF has been very consistent with Friday being peak and then it never recovers but still be an intense Hurricane.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think Lee will try to peak again tomorrow night, after a probable EWRC and wind sheer abates down to 10 knots.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think Lee will try to peak again tomorrow night, after a probable EWRC and wind sheer abates down to 10 knots.

Interestingly, the two other open ocean powerhouse hurricanes in recent years (Sam and Lorenzo) saw something similar with double peaks. Maybe Lee will do something similar?

[GCANE]

928 to 941 mb
Took a big hit

[GCANE]

Nothing dry about the eye this morning.
Nearly saturated at 850mb

[cycloneye]

VDM pressure is 942 mbs.

URNT12 KNHC 081242
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132023
A. 08/12:20:00Z
B. 17.93 deg N 054.14 deg W
C. 700 mb 2629 m
D. 942 mb
E. 205 deg 13 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C12
H. 109 kt
I. 211 deg 5 nm 12:18:30Z
J. 299 deg 95 kt
K. 211 deg 5 nm 12:18:30Z
L. 120 kt
M. 030 deg 8 nm 12:22:30Z
N. 116 deg 132 kt
O. 032 deg 9 nm 12:23:00Z
P. 16 C / 2971 m
Q. 23 C / 3047 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF306 0413A LEE OB 03
MAX FL WIND 132 KT 032 / 9 NM 12:23:00Z